List of Probabilities for Women D3
Women D3 Championship Probabilties
PR = Power Ratings
RPI = Ratings Percentage Index
SOS = Strength of Schedule
QWF = Quality Wins Factor
Tot = Sum of RPI, SOS and QWF rankings which determines selection standing
Champ % = Championship Probability based on power ratings
SOS & QWF SOS & QWF
based on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%)
Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 Tufts NESCAC 18 1 1 7 2 2 8 1 11 59.50
2 Middlebury NESCAC 17 1 2 4 1 3 15 2 20 30.50
3 Wesleyan NESCAC 14 5 3 1 5 6 4 12 22 4.85
4 St John Fish Empire Eight 19 0 4 54 6 18 68 5 91 2.45
5 Colby NESCAC 15 3 5 8 3 5 6 6 17 1.65
6 Gettysburg Centennial 17 3 6 12 7 4 1 4 9 0.00
7 York MAC Commonweal 17 3 10 29 12 15 10 7 32 0.00
8 Salisbury Coast to Coast 15 4 14 17 14 7 16 11 34 0.00
9 Adrian MIAA 11 6 156 218 99 148 247 101 496 0.00
10 Albertus Mag Great Northeas 0 14 272 261 281 275 244 281 800 0.00
11 Albion MIAA 5 11 165 133 236 174 235 222 631 0.00
12 Albright MAC Commonweal 5 12 169 92 240 196 154 241 591 0.00
13 Alfred Empire Eight 6 10 176 143 190 213 200 205 618 0.00
14 Alfred State AMCC 4 9 257 280 197 253 248 197 698 0.00
15 Allegheny Presidents 5 13 189 191 248 205 257 248 710 0.00
16 Alma MIAA 4 9 214 214 173 231 259 175 665 0.00
17 Alvernia MAC Commonweal 4 13 161 84 260 200 132 260 592 0.00
18 Amherst NESCAC 11 6 7 6 8 19 14 20 53 0.00
19 Anderson (IN) Heartland 8 8 242 273 115 238 279 120 637 0.00
20 Anna Maria Great Northeas 2 14 253 241 277 262 191 277 730 0.00
21 Arcadia MAC Freedom 9 8 148 136 138 154 184 138 476 0.00
22 Augsburg WIAC 0 11 267 187 249 255 220 249 724 0.00
23 Augustana(IL) CCIW 5 10 224 196 214 181 164 213 558 0.00
24 Aurora NACC 11 7 152 206 116 106 95 121 322 0.00
25 Averett Old Dominion 5 6 215 159 117 152 204 110 466 0.00
26 Babson NEWMAC 15 4 34 47 20 35 67 26 128 0.00
27 Bald Wallace Ohio 10 9 94 99 162 78 53 164 295 0.00
28 Bard Liberty League 1 13 235 68 270 234 185 271 690 0.00
29 Bates NESCAC 7 9 17 9 48 47 18 81 146 0.00
30 Beloit NACC 7 7 211 264 130 194 234 132 560 0.00
31 Berry SAA 12 7 119 139 111 68 92 114 274 0.00
32 Bethany Presidents 3 14 247 258 269 261 258 268 787 0.00
33 Bowdoin NESCAC 6 9 29 10 62 54 29 115 198 0.00
34 Brevard USA South Atl. 7 8 244 272 152 204 229 153 586 0.00
35 Bridgewater Old Dominion 10 9 111 134 159 119 88 149 356 0.00
36 Bridgewater St MASCAC 14 5 87 128 58 59 102 56 217 0.00
37 Brockport Empire Eight 9 9 53 50 131 113 64 154 331 0.00
38 Bryn Athyn UnitedEast 8 5 197 235 82 210 267 82 559 0.00
39 Buffalo State SUNYAC 12 7 91 131 112 109 100 116 325 0.00
40 Cal Lutheran SCIAC 7 10 142 108 205 183 136 198 517 0.00
41 Calvin MIAA 12 6 125 154 94 84 214 94 392 0.00
42 Canton SUNYAC 7 9 132 130 181 195 189 185 569 0.00
43 Capital Ohio 10 6 95 114 100 83 91 88 262 0.00
44 Carroll CCIW 13 4 108 164 49 33 41 45 119 0.00
45 Carthage CCIW 13 4 102 170 50 49 85 46 180 0.00
46 Castleton Little East 4 13 202 156 265 192 80 262 534 0.00
47 Catholic Landmark 10 9 41 37 118 66 31 95 192 0.00
48 Cedar Crest UnitedEast 5 8 261 276 163 267 274 166 707 0.00
49 Centenary (NJ) Atlantic East 5 8 254 266 164 259 265 167 691 0.00
50 Centre SAA 7 8 145 146 153 135 119 155 409 0.00
51 Chapman SCIAC 6 10 107 65 209 125 69 200 394 0.00
52 Chatham Presidents 11 6 151 204 95 110 115 96 321 0.00
53 Chicago CCIW 13 4 31 49 43 8 17 31 56 0.00
54 Christ Newport Coast to Coast 8 11 28 14 154 42 11 125 178 0.00
55 Clar-Mudd-S SCIAC 12 7 45 52 88 46 26 83 155 0.00
56 Clark NEWMAC 6 11 175 116 224 176 109 227 512 0.00
57 Clarkson Liberty League 9 8 56 46 133 112 98 133 343 0.00
58 Coast Guard NEWMAC 10 6 73 76 101 81 84 102 267 0.00
59 Colby-Sawyer Great Northeas 11 7 157 210 119 132 121 122 375 0.00
60 Colorado Col WIAC 18 4 32 85 27 22 35 18 75 0.00
61 Con-Wisc NACC 5 10 219 240 215 193 163 214 570 0.00
62 Conn Col NESCAC 7 8 23 11 46 58 76 84 218 0.00
63 Cornell Col NACC 7 9 201 251 155 188 250 156 594 0.00
64 Cortland SUNYAC 11 7 51 48 69 57 30 89 176 0.00
65 Curry Conference of 4 13 204 171 266 237 193 266 696 0.00
66 Dean Great Northeas 8 9 198 242 174 187 166 176 529 0.00
67 DelVal MAC Freedom 6 11 195 188 221 239 230 220 689 0.00
68 Denison North Coast 14 4 25 39 39 13 32 21 66 0.00
69 DePauw North Coast 7 9 88 69 182 91 44 170 305 0.00
70 DeSales MAC Freedom 15 3 85 169 22 96 197 27 320 0.00
71 Dickinson Centennial 6 11 58 23 186 92 34 171 297 0.00
72 Drew Landmark 5 11 122 67 225 173 142 223 538 0.00
73 Eastern MAC Commonweal 2 12 234 127 250 252 215 254 721 0.00
74 EaConn Little East 13 6 83 118 83 90 81 78 249 0.00
75 EaMenn Old Dominion 6 11 220 209 226 197 175 228 600 0.00
76 Edgewood NACC 10 8 187 216 139 123 133 139 395 0.00
77 Elizab'town Landmark 9 8 136 138 145 172 201 146 519 0.00
78 Elmhurst CCIW 5 8 229 254 165 221 242 168 631 0.00
79 Elmira Empire Eight 0 4 282 262 102 282 280 103 665 0.00
80 Elms Great Northeas 2 11 245 238 242 248 207 242 697 0.00
81 Emerson NEWMAC 5 11 172 132 232 220 182 233 635 0.00
82 Emmanuel MA Great Northeas 14 7 131 152 105 45 36 107 188 0.00
83 Endicott Conference of 15 5 44 58 17 23 24 19 66 0.00
84 Farm'dale St Skyline 9 9 126 135 124 122 233 111 466 0.00
85 FDU-Florham MAC Freedom 4 10 160 122 210 179 162 209 550 0.00
86 Ferrum Old Dominion 7 9 213 200 148 180 213 140 533 0.00
87 Fitchburg St MASCAC 2 15 185 129 283 222 157 283 662 0.00
88 Fram'ham St MASCAC 10 9 97 90 149 107 50 157 314 0.00
89 Franciscan Presidents 6 9 225 247 191 191 223 191 605 0.00
90 Franklin Heartland 1 8 276 277 192 281 277 192 750 0.00
91 F&M Centennial 18 2 8 13 4 1 2 3 6 0.00
92 Fredonia SUNYAC 8 9 117 115 175 147 120 177 444 0.00
93 Geneseo Empire Eight 12 7 33 41 59 72 58 97 227 0.00
94 Geneva Col Presidents 0 15 274 232 271 258 237 272 767 0.00
95 George Fox Northwest 14 5 100 149 52 44 47 51 142 0.00
96 Gordon Conference of 2 14 208 155 278 245 171 278 694 0.00
97 Goucher Landmark 6 11 167 141 227 201 194 229 624 0.00
98 Greensboro USA South Atl. 5 12 262 267 216 223 263 215 701 0.00
99 Grove City Presidents 12 7 134 183 89 79 174 90 343 0.00
100 Guilford Old Dominion 5 12 241 189 244 211 161 239 611 0.00
101 Gwynedd Mer Atlantic East 4 14 221 175 274 226 148 274 648 0.00
102 Hamilton NESCAC 6 8 15 3 53 60 54 91 205 0.00
103 Hamline WIAC 6 9 217 212 187 182 158 189 529 0.00
104 Hanover Heartland 2 8 263 275 183 276 278 186 740 0.00
105 Hartford Conference of 13 6 90 109 84 87 93 85 265 0.00
106 Hartwick Empire Eight 7 8 114 91 134 159 156 150 465 0.00
107 Haverford Centennial 15 6 16 15 23 17 21 23 61 0.00
108 Hendrix SAA 7 8 186 181 140 158 251 141 550 0.00
109 Hilbert AMCC 1 11 273 278 245 264 239 245 748 0.00
110 Hood MAC Commonweal 7 10 149 111 193 160 122 199 481 0.00
111 Hope MIAA 13 6 74 97 85 38 59 68 165 0.00
112 Huntingdon USA South Atl. 3 9 265 257 198 228 228 201 657 0.00
113 Husson North Atlantic 7 8 166 148 141 155 123 147 425 0.00
114 Ill Tech NACC 2 15 264 243 284 260 212 284 756 0.00
115 Ill Wesleyan CCIW 8 9 159 179 176 130 101 178 409 0.00
116 Immaculata Atlantic East 3 14 233 167 275 233 160 275 668 0.00
117 Ithaca Liberty League 14 7 26 18 54 28 12 69 109 0.00
118 John Carroll Ohio 16 3 69 121 21 25 42 28 95 0.00
119 John&Wales Great Northeas 13 5 124 202 63 99 130 61 290 0.00
120 Juniata Landmark 9 9 86 63 168 128 151 172 451 0.00
121 Kalamazoo MIAA 4 13 162 102 237 151 170 224 545 0.00
122 Kean NJAC 4 9 129 66 188 142 114 173 429 0.00
123 Keene State Little East 11 7 105 117 120 69 52 117 238 0.00
124 Kenyon North Coast 7 9 67 35 169 52 28 127 207 0.00
125 Keuka Empire Eight 4 10 240 177 199 243 231 216 690 0.00
126 Kings MAC Freedom 5 10 203 178 206 219 219 206 644 0.00
127 La Roche AMCC 14 1 232 282 15 150 282 17 449 0.00
128 Lake Forest NACC 15 5 112 190 56 56 56 49 161 0.00
129 Lasell Great Northeas 12 6 190 255 90 186 241 92 519 0.00
130 Lawrence NACC 1 12 269 268 261 274 255 261 790 0.00
131 LebValley MAC Freedom 13 6 70 82 64 62 71 53 186 0.00
132 LewisClark Northwest 12 6 158 228 96 143 260 98 501 0.00
133 Linfield Northwest 8 8 178 225 150 168 144 151 463 0.00
134 Lycoming Landmark 8 8 118 125 151 167 167 152 486 0.00
135 Lynchburg Old Dominion 13 6 77 147 86 100 205 73 378 0.00
136 Maine Mar North Atlantic 11 2 150 236 28 127 254 32 413 0.00
137 Maine-Farm North Atlantic 3 9 206 224 200 242 243 202 687 0.00
138 Manhattanv'e Skyline 5 10 218 233 217 246 246 217 709 0.00
139 Marian (WI) NACC 5 12 239 252 251 230 206 250 686 0.00
140 Marietta Ohio 5 12 182 165 252 175 108 251 534 0.00
141 Maritime Skyline 10 7 154 207 125 171 217 126 514 0.00
142 Mary Wash Coast to Coast 10 7 38 24 91 31 51 79 161 0.00
143 Marymount Atlantic East 17 3 79 168 24 63 140 29 232 0.00
144 Marywood Atlantic East 9 8 110 145 146 153 168 148 469 0.00
145 Mass Mar MASCAC 4 10 205 173 219 225 208 219 652 0.00
146 Mass-Boston Little East 6 11 173 174 228 202 152 225 579 0.00
147 Mass-Dart Little East 9 8 144 140 147 129 106 142 377 0.00
148 McDaniel Centennial 6 11 101 45 201 121 82 193 396 0.00
149 Merchant Mar Skyline 13 3 104 208 40 104 159 40 303 0.00
150 Meredith USA South Atl. 18 4 75 213 36 74 179 42 295 0.00
151 Messiah MAC Commonweal 14 6 27 31 37 27 13 30 70 0.00
152 Methodist USA South Atl. 12 7 135 222 113 118 116 118 352 0.00
153 Misericordia MAC Freedom 6 11 139 73 218 141 90 218 449 0.00
154 MIT NEWMAC 13 8 35 40 80 48 19 99 166 0.00
155 Mitchell Great Northeas 1 11 270 263 246 273 262 246 781 0.00
156 Montclair St NJAC 9 7 71 60 106 93 89 86 268 0.00
157 Moravian Landmark 10 8 89 83 135 137 165 130 432 0.00
158 Morrisville SUNYAC 0 11 246 98 253 250 227 252 729 0.00
159 Mnt Aloy AMCC 7 7 251 281 132 198 238 134 570 0.00
160 Mt Holyoke NEWMAC 4 12 191 119 255 207 147 255 609 0.00
161 Mt St Joseph Heartland 3 10 260 274 177 272 270 179 721 0.00
162 Mt St Mary Skyline 8 10 179 223 202 214 199 203 616 0.00
163 Mt St Vincent Skyline 2 9 248 221 184 257 264 187 708 0.00
164 Mt Union Ohio 14 5 63 89 60 37 57 52 146 0.00
165 MSOE NACC 6 12 210 234 247 189 150 247 586 0.00
166 Muhlenberg Centennial 14 5 40 33 38 36 143 24 203 0.00
167 Muskingum Ohio 6 10 199 201 211 203 169 210 582 0.00
168 Nazareth Empire Eight 11 8 72 62 107 95 61 131 287 0.00
169 Neumann Atlantic East 10 9 96 126 160 126 224 158 508 0.00
170 NEC Great Northeas 6 11 223 246 229 240 218 230 688 0.00
171 New Paltz SUNYAC 13 5 66 93 65 77 126 57 260 0.00
172 Nichols Conference of 13 5 123 163 66 120 176 62 358 0.00
173 NoCarWes USA South Atl. 0 11 280 265 254 269 252 253 774 0.00
174 NoCentral CCIW 9 7 184 231 127 145 173 128 446 0.00
175 Norwich Great Northeas 15 3 146 226 31 82 128 35 245 0.00
176 Notre DameMD UnitedEast 0 12 278 244 262 278 271 263 812 0.00
177 Oberlin North Coast 8 9 106 94 178 114 104 169 387 0.00
178 Occidental SCIAC 9 9 98 96 170 140 75 159 374 0.00
179 Oglethorpe SAA 7 10 115 150 185 124 105 188 417 0.00
180 Ohio No Ohio 10 8 155 157 142 133 125 143 401 0.00
181 Ohio Wes North Coast 11 6 84 106 97 88 112 87 287 0.00
182 Old West Skyline 1 9 275 256 212 271 269 211 751 0.00
183 Oneonta SUNYAC 7 10 103 87 207 165 155 207 527 0.00
184 Oswego SUNYAC 15 3 57 95 32 51 97 36 184 0.00
185 Otterbein Ohio 2 14 193 107 279 206 129 279 614 0.00
186 Pacific Northwest 4 12 243 199 257 227 211 257 695 0.00
187 Pac Luth Northwest 1 14 259 198 282 270 268 282 820 0.00
188 Pfeiffer USA South Atl. 2 11 268 270 243 263 245 243 751 0.00
189 Piedmont USA South Atl. 13 6 120 227 67 101 180 63 344 0.00
190 Plattsburgh SUNYAC 3 12 174 100 258 209 146 258 613 0.00
191 Plymouth St e Little East 16 4 65 81 34 24 43 38 105 0.00
192 Pomona Pitz SCIAC 18 2 21 53 9 16 37 14 67 0.00
193 Potsdam SUNYAC 7 8 153 142 156 185 209 160 554 0.00
194 Puget Sound Northwest 3 13 238 194 259 236 276 259 771 0.00
195 Purchase Skyline 0 12 281 253 263 277 266 264 807 0.00
196 Ramapo NJAC 5 8 164 124 157 177 188 144 509 0.00
197 Randolph Old Dominion 2 13 266 217 268 247 196 265 708 0.00
198 Rand-Macon Old Dominion 14 5 55 79 51 41 40 43 124 0.00
199 Redlands SCIAC 12 6 76 78 92 73 99 70 242 0.00
200 Regis (MA) Great Northeas 9 9 207 249 171 199 186 174 559 0.00
201 R Island Col Little East 1 10 226 153 230 229 190 226 645 0.00
202 Rhodes SAA 11 7 80 61 126 40 134 112 286 0.00
203 RIT Liberty League 11 5 30 22 68 34 62 64 160 0.00
204 Rivier Great Northeas 8 6 181 239 108 164 198 113 475 0.00
205 Roanoke Old Dominion 12 7 39 64 109 50 94 104 248 0.00
206 Rochester Liberty League 4 12 52 20 222 136 78 244 458 0.00
207 Rog Williams Conference of 10 7 60 55 77 67 39 74 180 0.00
208 Rowan NJAC 16 3 18 30 16 11 27 10 48 0.00
209 RPI Liberty League 9 7 49 27 103 80 70 105 255 0.00
210 Sage Empire Eight 3 11 216 113 223 224 172 237 633 0.00
211 Salem State MASCAC 8 9 177 192 179 190 187 180 557 0.00
212 Salve Regina NEWMAC 5 11 147 86 233 157 110 234 501 0.00
213 Scranton Landmark 15 6 24 34 41 32 20 41 93 0.00
214 Sewanee SAA 17 1 64 162 10 30 83 9 122 0.00
215 Shenandoah Old Dominion 13 7 36 51 72 43 33 50 126 0.00
216 Simmons Great Northeas 7 8 183 197 158 146 138 161 445 0.00
217 Skidmore Liberty League 6 10 61 28 203 116 55 204 375 0.00
218 Smith NEWMAC 10 8 82 80 143 108 86 136 330 0.00
219 So Maine Little East 13 6 92 103 70 53 45 58 156 0.00
220 Southern Va USA South Atl. 10 8 200 248 144 163 149 145 457 0.00
221 Southwestern WIAC 2 15 237 172 285 218 72 285 575 0.00
222 Spalding Heartland 4 12 249 259 256 244 216 256 716 0.00
223 Springfield NEWMAC 14 4 42 70 44 64 127 47 238 0.00
224 St Benedict WIAC 11 6 138 160 73 86 153 59 298 0.00
225 St JosephCT Great Northeas 4 13 231 219 267 241 177 267 685 0.00
226 St JosephsLI Skyline 6 6 168 215 121 178 225 123 526 0.00
227 St JosephsME Great Northeas 12 6 121 176 74 75 74 71 220 0.00
228 St Lawrence Liberty League 7 10 43 21 136 98 38 162 298 0.00
229 St Marys IN MIAA 5 10 196 180 194 162 202 194 558 0.00
230 St Marys (MD) UnitedEast 10 8 48 75 122 97 79 124 300 0.00
231 St Vincent Presidents 3 12 256 250 241 235 236 240 711 0.00
232 Stevens MAC Freedom 17 4 13 38 13 12 22 13 47 0.00
233 Stevenson MAC Commonweal 12 7 37 36 61 61 46 65 172 0.00
234 Stockton NJAC 11 6 68 72 78 76 111 54 241 0.00
235 Suffolk Conference of 6 10 188 184 213 208 181 212 601 0.00
236 SUNY Poly Empire Eight 1 13 252 120 264 256 195 269 720 0.00
237 Susquehanna Landmark 9 10 93 71 195 144 141 190 475 0.00
238 Swarthmore Centennial 10 7 54 44 87 102 117 75 294 0.00
239 Sweet Briar Old Dominion 0 13 277 203 272 268 226 273 767 0.00
240 TCNJ NJAC 14 5 20 25 25 9 7 15 31 0.00
241 Thiel Presidents 10 5 209 271 81 184 273 80 537 0.00
242 Thomas North Atlantic 1 10 236 237 231 265 261 231 757 0.00
243 Transylvania Heartland 7 10 171 166 204 166 145 195 506 0.00
244 Trine MIAA 11 5 140 186 55 103 192 48 343 0.00
245 Trinity NESCAC 9 9 12 5 45 21 9 60 90 0.00
246 Trin Wash D3 Independent 0 10 279 279 196 279 272 196 747 0.00
247 UNeEng Conference of 8 9 128 105 172 139 96 181 416 0.00
248 Union Liberty League 13 4 22 26 42 39 65 44 148 0.00
249 Ursinus Centennial 7 11 62 32 189 117 49 165 331 0.00
250 Utica Empire Eight 7 9 109 101 161 170 139 182 491 0.00
251 Vassar Liberty League 10 6 46 43 93 94 107 93 294 0.00
252 Lyndon North Atlantic 0 2 250 230 57 280 275 55 610 0.00
253 Va Wesleyan Old Dominion 9 9 163 161 166 149 118 163 430 0.00
254 War Wilson Coast to Coast 5 8 255 269 75 212 281 66 559 0.00
255 WashJeff Presidents 10 5 143 211 79 111 135 76 322 0.00
256 WashLee Old Dominion 18 4 19 42 11 10 5 8 23 0.00
257 WashCol Centennial 7 10 47 19 129 65 25 135 225 0.00
258 Wellesley NEWMAC 1 14 192 104 280 232 131 280 643 0.00
259 WentTech Conference of 5 11 230 220 234 251 221 235 707 0.00
260 WeConn Little East 17 3 59 77 18 20 48 22 90 0.00
261 WNE Conference of 5 11 141 110 235 169 113 236 518 0.00
262 Westfield St MASCAC 6 11 81 56 220 134 103 221 458 0.00
263 Westminster ) Presidents 12 6 180 245 98 138 240 100 478 0.00
264 Wheaton (MA) NEWMAC 8 9 116 88 180 115 77 183 375 0.00
265 Whitman Northwest 14 5 130 185 76 105 253 72 430 0.00
266 Whittier SCIAC 0 13 212 57 273 216 124 270 610 0.00
267 Whitworth Northwest 8 7 170 205 137 161 210 137 508 0.00
268 Widener MAC Commonweal 8 10 78 59 167 131 87 184 402 0.00
269 Wilkes Landmark 0 15 258 123 286 266 232 286 784 0.00
270 Willamette Northwest 9 7 137 158 128 89 66 129 284 0.00
271 Will Peace USA South Atl. 2 9 271 260 208 254 249 208 711 0.00
272 Will Smith Liberty League 14 4 11 16 19 14 23 25 62 0.00
273 Williams NESCAC 7 9 9 2 47 29 3 77 109 0.00
274 Wilson UnitedEast 4 11 222 193 238 217 203 238 658 0.00
275 WiscEauCla WIAC 11 7 127 137 123 85 63 108 256 0.00
276 Wisc-LaC WIAC 10 7 133 151 104 71 222 106 399 0.00
277 Wisc-RivF WIAC 12 5 113 182 71 55 73 67 195 0.00
278 Wisc-StevPt WIAC 3 14 228 229 276 249 183 276 708 0.00
279 Wisc-Stout WIAC 8 7 227 195 114 156 256 119 531 0.00
280 Wittenberg North Coast 4 11 194 144 239 215 178 232 625 0.00
281 Wooster North Coast 17 4 50 74 26 26 137 16 179 0.00
282 Wor St MASCAC 13 7 99 112 110 70 60 109 239 0.00
283 Bryn Mawr Centennial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
284 Hiram 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
285 Pitt-Brad 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00
286 Waynesburg Presidents 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00