Fitch
W-L: ( 0-15) PR = 67.7290Schedule/Results All Games
Date Opponent Conf/State (W-L, PR) Score 405 A Waterford (12- 7, 81.5) 5-21 408 H Bacon/East Hampton (11- 7, 75.4) 3-13 410 A East Lyme (17- 4, 85.2) 2-17 412 A Stamford ( 7- 9, 81.9) 7-15 417 H Norwich Free Academy (12- 6, 80.0) 6-17 422 H Woodstock Academy ( 3-13, 72.3) 7- 8 424 H Waterford (12- 7, 81.5) 2-17 426 H Old Saybrook (11- 7, 76.3) 6-16 429 H East Lyme (17- 4, 85.2) 2-17 501 A Stonington (12- 5, 79.9) 2-12 506 H Killingly ( 2-14, 69.8) 14-16 508 A Bacon/East Hampton (11- 7, 75.4) 11-24 513 A Norwich Free Academy (12- 6, 80.0) 4-18 515 H East Catholic (11- 8, 79.0) 10-22 519 A Griswold-Norwich Tech ( 2-14, 69.7) 11-16
PREDICTION LIST
-------------------------------------
|Real = actual goal margin |
|Pred = predicted goal margin |
|+ = slightly above prediction |
|++ = above prediction |
|+++ = well above prediction |
|- = slightly below prediction |
|-- = below prediction |
|--- = well below prediction |
|Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-) |
| prediction. N/A when ten |
| goal limit is exceeded |
|n/a = Outside division |
-------------------------------------
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals*
405 A Waterford 5-21 -16 -14 0.00
408 H Bacon/East Hampton 3-13 -10 -7 0.00
410 A East Lyme 2-17 -15 -18 0.00
412 A Stamford 7-15 -8 -15 0.00
417 H Norwich Free Academy 6-17 -11 -12 0.00
422 H Woodstock Academy 7- 8 -1 -4 + 2.87
424 H Waterford 2-17 -15 -13 0.00
426 H Old Saybrook 6-16 -10 -8 0.00
429 H East Lyme 2-17 -15 -17 0.00
501 A Stonington 2-12 -10 -13 0.00
506 H Killingly 14-16 -2 -1 -0.66
508 A Bacon/East Hampton 11-24 -13 -8 0.00
513 A Norwich Free Academy 4-18 -14 -13 0.00
515 H East Catholic 10-22 -12 -11 0.00
519 A Griswold-Norwich Tech 11-16 -5 -3 - -2.26
|
UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 519 A Griswold-Norwich Tech 11-16 -5 -3 - -2.26 |
OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 422 H Woodstock Academy 7- 8 -1 -4 + 2.87 |
Fitch Evaluation
The team that earns the point in the pair-wise comparison is based on three criteria:
first is head-to-head, the winner gets the point, however, if they did not play each
other, than it considers w-l versus common opponents. If their records are tied or they
have no common opponents, than the tie-breaker becomes the better power rating.
The Common Opponent Point list in the table below has the record of the winner followed by the
record of the loser for all common opponents
| Opponent | Who Gets the Point? | Head-2-Head Point |
Common Opponent Point |
Power Rating Point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amity Regional | Amity Regional | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Amity Regional | |
| Avon HS | Avon HS | Avon HS | ||
| Bacon/East Hampton | Bacon/East Hampton | Bacon/East Hampton | ||
| Berlin | Berlin | insuffient: ( 0- 3)( 1- 2) | Berlin | |
| Bethel | Bethel | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Bethel | |
| Branford | Branford | insuffient: ( 0- 2)( 1- 1) | Branford | |
| Brien McMahon | Brien McMahon | insuffient: ( 0- 2)( 1- 1) | Brien McMahon | |
| Bristol Central | Bristol Central | Bristol Central | ||
| Bristol Eastern | Bristol Eastern | Bristol Eastern | ||
| Brookfield | Brookfield | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Brookfield | |
| Canton | Canton | Canton | ||
| Cheshire HS | Cheshire HS | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Cheshire HS | |
| Conard | Conard | Conard | ||
| Cromwell | Cromwell | tied - ( 0- 2) ( 0- 2) | Cromwell | |
| Danbury | Danbury | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Danbury | |
| Daniel Hand | Daniel Hand | insuffient: ( 0- 2)( 1- 1) | Daniel Hand | |
| Darien | Darien | Darien | ||
| East Catholic | East Catholic | East Catholic | ||
| East Lyme | East Lyme | East Lyme | ||
| Ellington | Ellington | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Ellington | |
| Enfield | Enfield | tied - ( 0- 2) ( 0- 2) | Enfield | |
| EO Smith | EO Smith | EO Smith | ||
| Fairfield Ludlowe | Fairfield Ludlowe | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Fairfield Ludlowe | |
| Fairfield Warde | Fairfield Warde | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Fairfield Warde | |
| Farmington | Farmington | Farmington | ||
| Foran | Foran | Foran | ||
| Glastonbury | Glastonbury | insuffient: ( 0- 2)( 1- 1) | Glastonbury | |
| Granby Memorial | Granby Memorial | Granby Memorial | ||
| Greenwich HS | Greenwich HS | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Greenwich HS | |
| Griswold-Norwich Tech | Griswold-Norwich Tech | Griswold-Norwich Tech | ||
| Guilford | Guilford | insuffient: ( 0- 2)( 1- 1) | Guilford | |
| Haddam-Killingworth | Haddam-Killingworth | tied - ( 0- 2) ( 0- 2) | Haddam-Killingworth | |
| Hall | Hall | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Hall | |
| Hamden | Hamden | Hamden | ||
| Housatonic Regional | Housatonic Regional | Housatonic Regional | ||
| Immaculate Heart | Fitch | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Fitch | |
| Joel Barlow | Joel Barlow | Joel Barlow | ||
| Jonathan Law | Jonathan Law | Jonathan Law | ||
| Killingly | Killingly | Killingly | ||
| Lakeview United | Fitch | Fitch | ||
| Lauralton Hall | Lauralton Hall | Lauralton Hall 2- 0 vs 0- 2 | ||
| Ledyard | Ledyard | Ledyard 5- 4 vs 0- 9 | ||
| Lewis Mills | Lewis Mills | Lewis Mills | ||
| Lyman Hall | Lyman Hall | Lyman Hall | ||
| Masuk | Masuk | Masuk | ||
| Mercy | Mercy | Mercy | ||
| Middletown-Coginchaug | Middletown-Coginchaug | Middletown-Coginchaug | ||
| Montville | Montville | Montville 4- 2 vs 0- 6 | ||
| Morgan School | Morgan School | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Morgan School | |
| New Canaan | New Canaan | New Canaan | ||
| New Fairfield | New Fairfield | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | New Fairfield | |
| New London/St Bernards | New London/St Bernards | New London/St Bernards 3- 1 vs 0- 4 | ||
| New Milford | New Milford | New Milford | ||
| Newington | Newington | Newington | ||
| Newtown | Newtown | Newtown | ||
| North Branford | North Branford | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | North Branford | |
| North Haven | North Haven | North Haven | ||
| Northwest Catholic | Northwest Catholic | Northwest Catholic 2- 0 vs 0- 2 | ||
| Norwalk | Norwalk | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Norwalk | |
| Norwich Free Academy | Norwich Free Academy | Norwich Free Academy | ||
| Notre Dame Fairfield | Notre Dame Fairfield | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Notre Dame Fairfield | |
| Old Lyme | Old Lyme | insuffient: ( 0- 3)( 1- 2) | Old Lyme | |
| Old Saybrook | Old Saybrook | Old Saybrook | ||
| Pomperaug | Pomperaug | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Pomperaug | |
| RHAM | RHAM | RHAM 2- 2 vs 0- 4 | ||
| Ridgefield | Ridgefield | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Ridgefield | |
| Rockville | Rockville | insuffient: ( 0- 2)( 1- 1) | Rockville | |
| Rocky Hill | Rocky Hill | insuffient: ( 0- 2)( 1- 1) | Rocky Hill | |
| Sacred Heart Academy | Sacred Heart Academy | Sacred Heart Academy | ||
| Sheehan | Sheehan | Sheehan | ||
| Shelton | Shelton | Shelton | ||
| Simsbury | Simsbury | Simsbury | ||
| Somers | Somers | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Somers | |
| South Windsor | South Windsor | tied - ( 0- 2) ( 0- 2) | South Windsor | |
| Southington | Southington | Southington | ||
| St Joseph | St Joseph | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | St Joseph | |
| St Paul Catholic | Fitch | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Fitch | |
| Stamford | Stamford | Stamford | ||
| Staples | Staples | Staples | ||
| Stonington | Stonington | Stonington | ||
| Stratford-Bunnell | Stratford-Bunnell | Stratford-Bunnell | ||
| Suffield HS | Suffield HS | Suffield HS | ||
| Tolland | Tolland | Tolland 2- 0 vs 0- 2 | ||
| Trumbull | Trumbull | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Trumbull | |
| Valley Regional | Valley Regional | insuffient: ( 0- 2)( 1- 1) | Valley Regional | |
| Waterford | Waterford | Waterford | ||
| Watertown | Watertown | Watertown | ||
| West Haven | West Haven | West Haven | ||
| Westhill | Westhill | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Westhill | |
| Weston | Weston | Weston | ||
| Wethersfield | Wethersfield | Wethersfield | ||
| Wheeler | Wheeler | Wheeler 3- 5 vs 0- 8 | ||
| Wilton | Wilton | Wilton 2- 0 vs 0- 2 | ||
| Windsor | Fitch | Fitch | ||
| Wolcott | Wolcott | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Wolcott | |
| Woodstock Academy | Woodstock Academy | Woodstock Academy |
PowerWise = 4
division Games OnlyAverage number of games used in Games Correction = 17.51
Date Opponent (W-L PR) SCORE SAFE SAFE Home No Games SCI
Loss Win Field Correction Points
SLP SWP Advantage Factor
0 A Waterford (12- 7, 81.5) 5-21 -18.44 16.37 0.73 1.17 -20.68
0 H Bacon/East Ham (11- 7, 75.4) 3-13 -24.48 10.33 -0.73 1.17 -29.42
0 A East Lyme (17- 4, 85.2) 2-17 -14.70 20.11 0.73 1.17 -16.31
0 A Stamford ( 7- 9, 81.9) 7-15 -18.01 16.80 0.73 1.17 -20.17
0 H Norwich Free A (12- 6, 80.0) 6-17 -19.91 14.90 -0.73 1.17 -24.08
0 H Woodstock Acad ( 3-13, 72.3) 7- 8 -27.57 7.24 -0.73 1.17 -33.02
0 H Waterford (12- 7, 81.5) 2-17 -18.44 16.37 -0.73 1.17 -22.37
0 H Old Saybrook (11- 7, 76.3) 6-16 -23.56 11.25 -0.73 1.17 -28.34
0 H East Lyme (17- 4, 85.2) 2-17 -14.70 20.11 -0.73 1.17 -18.01
0 A Stonington (12- 5, 79.9) 2-12 -20.01 14.80 0.73 1.17 -22.51
0 H Killingly ( 2-14, 69.8) 14-16 -30.10 4.70 -0.73 1.17 -35.98
0 A Bacon/East Ham (11- 7, 75.4) 11-24 -24.48 10.33 0.73 1.17 -27.73
0 A Norwich Free A (12- 6, 80.0) 4-18 -19.91 14.90 0.73 1.17 -22.38
0 H East Catholic (11- 8, 79.0) 10-22 -20.93 13.88 -0.73 1.17 -25.27
0 A Griswold-Norwi ( 2-14, 69.7) 11-16 -30.16 4.65 0.73 1.17 -34.35
------
-380.61
|
winning pts = 0.0000 losing points = -380.6052
SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.
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| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
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