First Flight
W-L: ( 7- 7) PR = 79.4267Schedule/Results All Games
Date Opponent Conf/State (W-L, PR) Score 307 A Croatan (13- 9, 87.2) 6-15 312 H JH Rose (16- 3, 87.5) 8-19 327 A Swansboro (11- 6, 85.4) 2-12 331 A Northside ( 7-12, 75.5) 15- 8 402 H New Bern (17- 4, 86.3) 6-16 409 H Jacksonville ( 2-12, 74.0) 9- 4 415 A JH Rose (16- 3, 87.5) 4-14 428 H Northside ( 7-12, 75.5) 12- 4 430 A New Bern (17- 4, 86.3) 6-19 502 A Havelock ( 2-10, 72.7) 10- 5 505 H Havelock ( 2-10, 72.7) 15- 3 507 A Jacksonville ( 2-12, 74.0) 8- 3 516 H Hunt ( 5-10, 73.6) 12- 5 520 A Union Pines (15- 6, 90.2) 2-19
PREDICTION LIST
-------------------------------------
|Real = actual goal margin |
|Pred = predicted goal margin |
|+ = slightly above prediction |
|++ = above prediction |
|+++ = well above prediction |
|- = slightly below prediction |
|-- = below prediction |
|--- = well below prediction |
|Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-) |
| prediction. N/A when ten |
| goal limit is exceeded |
|n/a = Outside division |
-------------------------------------
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals*
307 A Croatan 6-15 -9 -8 0.00
312 H JH Rose 8-19 -11 -8 0.00
327 A Swansboro 2-12 -10 -6 0.00
331 A Northside 15- 8 7 4 1.40
402 H New Bern 6-16 -10 -7 0.00
409 H Jacksonville 9- 4 5 6 0.00
415 A JH Rose 4-14 -10 -8 0.00
428 H Northside 12- 4 8 4 0.79
430 A New Bern 6-19 -13 -7 0.00
502 A Havelock 10- 5 5 6 0.00
505 H Havelock 15- 3 12 7 0.00
507 A Jacksonville 8- 3 5 5 0.00
516 H Hunt 12- 5 7 6 0.00
520 A Union Pines 2-19 -17 -11 0.00
|
UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* |
OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* |
First Flight Evaluation
The team that earns the point in the pair-wise comparison is based on three criteria:
first is head-to-head, the winner gets the point, however, if they did not play each
other, than it considers w-l versus common opponents. If their records are tied or they
have no common opponents, than the tie-breaker becomes the better power rating.
The Common Opponent Point list in the table below has the record of the winner followed by the
record of the loser for all common opponents
| Opponent | Who Gets the Point? | Head-2-Head Point |
Common Opponent Point |
Power Rating Point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apex | Apex | Apex | ||
| Apex Friendship | Apex Friendship | Apex Friendship | ||
| Ardrey Kell | Ardrey Kell | Ardrey Kell | ||
| Arendell Parrott Academy | Arendell Parrott Academy | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Arendell Parrott Academy | |
| Asheville HS | Asheville HS | Asheville HS | ||
| Asheville School | Asheville School | Asheville School | ||
| Ashley | Ashley | insuffient: ( 0- 2)( 1- 1) | Ashley | |
| Athens Drive | Athens Drive | Athens Drive | ||
| Atkins | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Ballantyne Ridge | Ballantyne Ridge | Ballantyne Ridge | ||
| Bishop McGuinness | Bishop McGuinness | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 0) | Bishop McGuinness | |
| Broughton | Broughton | Broughton | ||
| Butler | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Cannon School | Cannon School | Cannon School | ||
| Cape Fear Academy | Cape Fear Academy | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Cape Fear Academy | |
| Cape Fear HS | First Flight | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Cardinal Gibbons | Cardinal Gibbons | Cardinal Gibbons | ||
| Carrboro | Carrboro | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Carrboro | |
| Cary Academy | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Cary HS | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Chapel Hill | Chapel Hill | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Chapel Hill | |
| Charlotte Catholic | Charlotte Catholic | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Charlotte Catholic | |
| Charlotte CDS | Charlotte CDS | Charlotte CDS | ||
| Charlotte Christian | Charlotte Christian | Charlotte Christian | ||
| Charlotte Latin School | Charlotte Latin School | Charlotte Latin School | ||
| Christ the King | Christ the King | Christ the King | ||
| Clayton | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 1)( 0- 2) | First Flight | |
| Cleveland | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Community School Davidso | Community School Davidso | Community School Davidso | ||
| Corinth Holders | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Croatan | Croatan | Croatan | ||
| Cuthbertson | Cuthbertson | Cuthbertson | ||
| Davidson Day School | Davidson Day School | Davidson Day School | ||
| Davie | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| DH Conley | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 1)( 0- 2) | First Flight | |
| Durham Academy | Durham Academy | Durham Academy | ||
| East Chapel Hill | East Chapel Hill | insuffient: ( 0- 2)( 1- 0) | East Chapel Hill | |
| East Forsyth | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Enloe | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Fayetteville Academy | Fayetteville Academy | Fayetteville Academy | ||
| Fike | Fike | Fike | ||
| Forsyth CDS | Forsyth CDS | Forsyth CDS | ||
| Fuquay-Varina | Fuquay-Varina | tied - ( 0- 2) ( 0- 2) | Fuquay-Varina | |
| Garner | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Glenn | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Green Hope | Green Hope | Green Hope | ||
| Green Level | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Greensboro Day School | Greensboro Day School | Greensboro Day School | ||
| Grimsley | Grimsley | Grimsley | ||
| Havelock | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Heritage | Heritage | tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) | Heritage | |
| Hickory | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| High Point Central | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Hoggard | Hoggard | Hoggard 2- 0 vs 0- 2 | ||
| Holly Springs | Holly Springs | Holly Springs | ||
| Hopewell | Hopewell | Hopewell | ||
| Hough | Hough | Hough | ||
| Hunt | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Independence | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Jack Britt | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 1)( 0- 2) | First Flight | |
| Jacksonville | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| JH Rose | JH Rose | JH Rose | ||
| Jordan | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Lake Norman Charter | Lake Norman Charter | Lake Norman Charter | ||
| Lake Norman HS | Lake Norman HS | Lake Norman HS | ||
| Laney | Laney | insuffient: ( 0- 2)( 1- 1) | Laney | |
| Leesville Road | Leesville Road | Leesville Road | ||
| Lincoln Charter | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Marvin Ridge | Marvin Ridge | Marvin Ridge | ||
| Middle Creek | Middle Creek | Middle Creek | ||
| Millbrook | Millbrook | tied - ( 1- 2) ( 1- 2) | Millbrook | |
| Mooresville | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Mount Tabor | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Myers Park | Myers Park | Myers Park | ||
| New Bern | New Bern | New Bern | ||
| New Hanover | New Hanover | New Hanover 4- 0 vs 2- 2 | ||
| North Brunswick | First Flight | insuffient: ( 2- 1)( 1- 1) | First Flight | |
| North Davidson | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| North Lincoln | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Northern Guilford | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Northside | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Northwest Guilford | Northwest Guilford | Northwest Guilford | ||
| Northwood | First Flight | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Page | Page | Page | ||
| Panther Creek | Panther Creek | Panther Creek | ||
| Parkwood | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Patton | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Pine Forest | First Flight | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Pine Lake Prep | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Pinecrest | Pinecrest | Pinecrest 2- 0 vs 0- 2 | ||
| Porter Ridge | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Providence | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Providence Day | Providence Day | Providence Day | ||
| Rabun Gap-Nocoochee | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Ragsdale | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Ravenscroft School | Ravenscroft School | Ravenscroft School | ||
| Riverside Durham | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| RJ Reynolds | RJ Reynolds | RJ Reynolds | ||
| Rolesville | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Ronald Reagan | Ronald Reagan | Ronald Reagan | ||
| Sanderson | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Seaforth | Seaforth | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Seaforth | |
| South Brunswick | South Brunswick | tied - ( 1- 1) ( 1- 1) | South Brunswick | |
| South Iredell | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| South Mecklenburg | South Mecklenburg | South Mecklenburg | ||
| Southeast Guilford | Southeast Guilford | Southeast Guilford | ||
| Southlake Christian | Southlake Christian | Southlake Christian | ||
| Southwest Guilford | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| St Davids School | St Davids School | St Davids School | ||
| St Marys | St Marys | St Marys | ||
| St Stephens | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Sun Valley | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Swansboro | Swansboro | Swansboro | ||
| TC Roberson | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Terry Sanford | First Flight | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Topsail | Topsail | Topsail 2- 0 vs 0- 2 | ||
| Union Pines | Union Pines | Union Pines | ||
| Wake Forest | Wake Forest | tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) | Wake Forest | |
| Wakefield | Wakefield | tied - ( 1- 2) ( 1- 2) | Wakefield | |
| Watauga | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Weddington | Weddington | Weddington | ||
| West Brunswick | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| West Forsyth | West Forsyth | West Forsyth | ||
| West Stokes | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| White Oak | First Flight | First Flight 2- 3 vs 0- 5 | ||
| Willow Spring | Willow Spring | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Willow Spring |
PowerWise = 53
division Games OnlyAverage number of games used in Games Correction = 16.87
Date Opponent (W-L PR) SCORE SAFE SAFE Home No Games SCI
Loss Win Field Correction Points
SLP SWP Advantage Factor
0 A Croatan (13- 9, 87.2) 6-15 -12.74 27.07 0.31 1.20 -14.98
0 H JH Rose (16- 3, 87.5) 8-19 -12.43 27.38 -0.31 1.20 -15.34
0 A Swansboro (11- 6, 85.4) 2-12 -14.51 25.30 0.31 1.20 -17.11
0 A Northside ( 7-12, 75.5) 15- 8 -24.38 15.43 0.31 1.20 18.95
0 H New Bern (17- 4, 86.3) 6-16 -13.60 26.20 -0.31 1.20 -16.75
0 H Jacksonville ( 2-12, 74.0) 9- 4 -25.91 13.90 -0.31 1.20 16.38
0 A JH Rose (16- 3, 87.5) 4-14 -12.43 27.38 0.31 1.20 -14.60
0 H Northside ( 7-12, 75.5) 12- 4 -24.38 15.43 -0.31 1.20 18.22
0 A New Bern (17- 4, 86.3) 6-19 -13.60 26.20 0.31 1.20 -16.02
0 A Havelock ( 2-10, 72.7) 10- 5 -27.24 12.57 0.31 1.20 15.51
0 H Havelock ( 2-10, 72.7) 15- 3 -27.24 12.57 -0.31 1.20 14.77
0 A Jacksonville ( 2-12, 74.0) 8- 3 -25.91 13.90 0.31 1.20 17.11
0 H Hunt ( 5-10, 73.6) 12- 5 -26.33 13.47 -0.31 1.20 15.86
0 A Union Pines (15- 6, 90.2) 2-19 -9.67 30.14 0.31 1.20 -11.28
------
10.72
|
winning pts = 116.8010 losing points = -106.0829
SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.
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| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
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