First Flight
W-L: (14- 3) PR = 90.4008Schedule/Results All Games
Date Opponent Conf/State (W-L, PR) Score 228 A East Chapel Hill (13- 8, 88.8) 10- 3 308 H Croatan (21- 2, 94.4) 6-11 312 H JH Rose (17- 5, 85.9) 12- 9 327 A Swansboro ( 6-14, 78.7) 17- 1 401 A Northside (11- 8, 83.4) 11- 1 402 H New Bern (12-10, 85.3) 10-11 409 H Jacksonville ( 6-12, 80.4) 19- 6 414 A JH Rose (17- 5, 85.9) 12- 5 428 H Northside (11- 8, 83.4) 11- 5 430 A New Bern (12-10, 85.3) 10- 6 502 A Havelock ( 6-10, 80.7) 16- 2 505 H Havelock ( 6-10, 80.7) 1- 0 507 A Jacksonville ( 6-12, 80.4) 17- 3 517 H Terry Sanford (11- 8, 80.2) 20- 4 520 H JH Rose (17- 5, 85.9) 16- 3 523 H Hillsborough Orange (21- 5, 88.0) 12- 5 528 A Croatan (21- 2, 94.4) 7- 8
PREDICTION LIST
-------------------------------------
|Real = actual goal margin |
|Pred = predicted goal margin |
|+ = slightly above prediction |
|++ = above prediction |
|+++ = well above prediction |
|- = slightly below prediction |
|-- = below prediction |
|--- = well below prediction |
|Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-) |
| prediction. N/A when ten |
| goal limit is exceeded |
|n/a = Outside division |
-------------------------------------
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals*
228 A East Chapel Hill 10- 3 7 1 + 3.67
308 H Croatan 6-11 -5 -4 -1.29
312 H JH Rose 12- 9 3 5 -1.77
327 A Swansboro 17- 1 16 11 0.00
401 A Northside 11- 1 10 7 0.00
402 H New Bern 10-11 -1 5 --- -6.00
409 H Jacksonville 19- 6 13 10 0.00
414 A JH Rose 12- 5 7 4 0.77
428 H Northside 11- 5 6 7 0.00
430 A New Bern 10- 6 4 5 -0.83
502 A Havelock 16- 2 14 9 0.00
507 A Jacksonville 17- 3 14 10 0.00
517 H Terry Sanford 20- 4 16 10 0.00
520 H JH Rose 16- 3 13 5 0.23
523 H Hillsborough Orange 12- 5 7 3 + 2.34
528 A Croatan 7- 8 -1 -4 + 3.25
|
UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 402 H New Bern 10-11 -1 5 --- -6.00 |
OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 228 A East Chapel Hill 10- 3 7 1 + 3.67 523 H Hillsborough Orange 12- 5 7 3 + 2.34 528 A Croatan 7- 8 -1 -4 + 3.25 |
First Flight Evaluation
The team that earns the point in the pair-wise comparison is based on three criteria:
first is head-to-head, the winner gets the point, however, if they did not play each
other, than it considers w-l versus common opponents. If their records are tied or they
have no common opponents, than the tie-breaker becomes the better power rating.
The Common Opponent Point list in the table below has the record of the winner followed by the
record of the loser for all common opponents
| Opponent | Who Gets the Point? | Head-2-Head Point |
Common Opponent Point |
Power Rating Point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apex | Apex | Apex | ||
| Apex Friendship | Apex Friendship | insuffient: ( 1- 1)( 2- 0) | Apex Friendship | |
| Ardrey Kell | Ardrey Kell | Ardrey Kell | ||
| Arendell Parrott Aca | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Asheville HS | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Asheville School | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Ashley | Ashley | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Ashley | |
| Athens Drive | Athens Drive | tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) | Athens Drive | |
| Atkins | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Ballantyne Ridge | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Bishop McGuinness | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Bradford Prep | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Broughton | Broughton | insuffient: ( 1- 2)( 0- 1) | Broughton | |
| Butler | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Cannon School | Cannon School | Cannon School | ||
| Cape Fear Academy | First Flight | tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) | First Flight | |
| Cape Fear HS | First Flight | First Flight 3- 0 vs 1- 2 | ||
| Cardinal Gibbons | Cardinal Gibbons | Cardinal Gibbons | ||
| Carrboro | First Flight | First Flight 2- 0 vs 0- 2 | ||
| Cary Academy | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Cary Christian | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Cary HS | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Cedar Ridge | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Chapel Hill | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 1)( 0- 2) | First Flight | |
| Charlotte Catholic | Charlotte Catholic | Charlotte Catholic | ||
| Charlotte CDS | Charlotte CDS | Charlotte CDS | ||
| Charlotte Christian | Charlotte Christian | Charlotte Christian | ||
| Charlotte Latin | Charlotte Latin | Charlotte Latin | ||
| Christ School | Christ School | Christ School | ||
| Christ The King | Christ The King | Christ The King | ||
| Clayton | First Flight | insuffient: ( 2- 1)( 1- 1) | First Flight | |
| Cleveland | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Community School-Dav | Community School-Dav | Community School-Dav | ||
| Corinth Holders | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 1)( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Cornerstone Charter | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Croatan | Croatan | Croatan | ||
| Cuthbertson | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Davie | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| DH Conley | First Flight | First Flight 3- 0 vs 0- 3 | ||
| Durham Academy | Durham Academy | tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) | Durham Academy | |
| East Chapel Hill | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| East Forsyth | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Eastern Alamance | First Flight | First Flight 2- 0 vs 0- 2 | ||
| Eastern Guilford | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Enloe | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Fike | First Flight | First Flight 2- 0 vs 0- 2 | ||
| Forsyth Country Day | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Fuquay-Varina | First Flight | tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) | First Flight | |
| Garner | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Glenn | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Grays Creek | First Flight | insuffient: ( 2- 0)( 1- 1) | First Flight | |
| Green Hope | Green Hope | tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) | Green Hope | |
| Green Level | Green Level | Green Level | ||
| Greensboro Day | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Grimsley | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Havelock | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Heritage | Heritage | insuffient: ( 1- 1)( 2- 0) | Heritage | |
| Hickory | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| High Point Central | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Hillsborough Orange | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Hoggard | Hoggard | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Hoggard | |
| Holly Springs | Holly Springs | Holly Springs | ||
| Hough | Hough | Hough | ||
| Hunt | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Independence | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Jack Britt | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Jacksonville | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| JF Webb | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| JH Rose | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| John Paul II Catholi | First Flight | First Flight 3- 0 vs 0- 3 | ||
| Jordan | First Flight | insuffient: ( 3- 1)( 2- 1) | First Flight | |
| Lake Norman Charter | Lake Norman Charter | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 0) | Lake Norman Charter | |
| Lake Norman HS | Lake Norman HS | Lake Norman HS | ||
| Laney | Laney | tied - ( 1- 2) ( 1- 1) | Laney | |
| Leesville Road | First Flight | tied - ( 1- 1) ( 1- 1) | First Flight | |
| Lincoln Charter | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Marvin Ridge | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Middle Creek | Middle Creek | Middle Creek | ||
| Millbrook | First Flight | tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) | First Flight | |
| Mooresville | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Mount Tabor | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Mountain Island Char | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Myers Park | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| New Bern | First Flight | insuffient: ( 5- 1)( 4- 2) | First Flight | |
| New Hanover | First Flight | First Flight 3- 1 vs 1- 2 | ||
| North Brunswick | First Flight | First Flight 4- 0 vs 1- 2 | ||
| North Davidson | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| North Lincoln | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| North Raleigh Christ | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 1)( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Northern Durham | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Northern Guilford | First Flight | First Flight 2- 0 vs 0- 2 | ||
| Northside | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Northwest Guilford | Northwest Guilford | Northwest Guilford | ||
| Northwood | First Flight | First Flight 2- 0 vs 0- 2 | ||
| Page | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Panther Creek | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Parkwood | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Patton Morganton | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Pine Forest | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Pine Lake Prep | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Pinecrest | First Flight | insuffient: ( 3- 1)( 2- 1) | First Flight | |
| Porter Ridge | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Providence | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Providence Day | Providence Day | Providence Day | ||
| Queens Grant | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Rabun Gap-Nocoochee | Rabun Gap-Nocoochee | Rabun Gap-Nocoochee | ||
| Ragsdale | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Ravenscroft School | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Reagan | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Riverside Durham | First Flight | First Flight 3- 0 vs 1- 2 | ||
| RJ Reynolds | RJ Reynolds | tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) | RJ Reynolds | |
| Rolesville | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Roxboro Community | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Sanderson | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Seaforth | First Flight | insuffient: ( 3- 0)( 2- 1) | First Flight | |
| South Brunswick | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| South Garner | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| South Iredell | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| South Mecklenburg | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| South View | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Southeast Alamance | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Southeast Guilford | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Southern Alamance | First Flight | First Flight 2- 1 vs 0- 1 | ||
| Southlake Christian | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Southwest Guilford | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| St Davids School | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| St Stephens | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Sun Valley | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Swansboro | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| TC Roberson | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Terry Sanford | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Topsail | Topsail | tied - ( 1- 2) ( 1- 1) | Topsail | |
| Union Pines | First Flight | tied - ( 1- 1) ( 1- 0) | First Flight | |
| Vance Charter | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Voyager Academy | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Wake Forest | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Wake Prep | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Wakefield | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Walter M Williams | First Flight | First Flight 2- 0 vs 0- 1 | ||
| Watauga | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Weddington | Weddington | Weddington | ||
| West Brunswick | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| West Carteret | First Flight | First Flight 5- 2 vs 0- 6 | ||
| West Forsyth | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| West Stokes | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Western Alamance | First Flight | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | First Flight | |
| Western Guilford | First Flight | First Flight | ||
| Willow Spring | First Flight | First Flight |
PowerWise = 115
division Games OnlyAverage number of games used in Games Correction = 17.93
Date Opponent (W-L PR) SCORE SAFE SAFE Home No Games SCI
Loss Win Field Correction Points
SLP SWP Advantage Factor
0 A East Chapel Hi (13- 8, 88.8) 10- 3 -11.10 22.71 0.27 1.05 24.24
0 H Croatan (21- 2, 94.4) 6-11 -5.52 28.29 -0.27 1.05 -6.11
0 H JH Rose (17- 5, 85.9) 12- 9 -14.00 19.81 -0.27 1.05 20.61
0 A Swansboro ( 6-14, 78.7) 17- 1 -21.24 12.57 0.27 1.05 13.55
0 A Northside (11- 8, 83.4) 11- 1 -16.55 17.26 0.27 1.05 18.50
0 H New Bern (12-10, 85.3) 10-11 -14.60 19.21 -0.27 1.05 -15.68
0 H Jacksonville ( 6-12, 80.4) 19- 6 -19.49 14.32 -0.27 1.05 14.82
0 A JH Rose (17- 5, 85.9) 12- 5 -14.00 19.81 0.27 1.05 21.19
0 H Northside (11- 8, 83.4) 11- 5 -16.55 17.26 -0.27 1.05 17.92
0 A New Bern (12-10, 85.3) 10- 6 -14.60 19.21 0.27 1.05 20.55
0 A Havelock ( 6-10, 80.7) 16- 2 -19.19 14.62 0.27 1.05 15.71
0 H Havelock ( 6-10, 80.7) 1- 0 -19.19 14.62 -0.27 1.05 15.14
0 A Jacksonville ( 6-12, 80.4) 17- 3 -19.49 14.32 0.27 1.05 15.39
0 H Terry Sanford (11- 8, 80.2) 20- 4 -19.72 14.08 -0.27 1.05 14.57
0 H JH Rose (17- 5, 85.9) 16- 3 -14.00 19.81 -0.27 1.05 20.61
0 H Hillsborough O (21- 5, 88.0) 12- 5 -11.89 21.92 -0.27 1.05 22.84
0 A Croatan (21- 2, 94.4) 7- 8 -5.52 28.29 0.27 1.05 -5.54
------
228.31
|
winning pts = 255.6402 losing points = -27.3347
SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
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