safe3step boys Nazareth Area 1

  
Nazareth Area         
W-L: (13- 7)  PR =    85.8603
 Schedule/Results All Games 

 Date  Opponent               Conf/State      (W-L, PR)      Score  
 318 A Northampton Area                     ( 6-12, 81.2)    21-10   
 320 H Northwestern Lehigh                  (11- 8, 85.4)     7- 6   
 321 H Delaware Valley                      (13- 2, 87.6)    10-11   
 325 A Pleasant Valley                      ( 3-15, 81.1)    11-10   
 327 A Moravian Academy                     (11- 7, 86.5)     8-17   
 328 H Northampton Area                     ( 6-12, 81.2)    19- 9   
 401 H Liberty  Bethlehem                   ( 6-12, 83.5)     7- 4   
 403 A Allentown Central Ca                 (19- 4, 89.7)    10-20   
 408 H Emmaus                               ( 9-10, 84.8)    14- 3   
 410 A Southern Lehigh                      (10- 9, 85.9)     8- 7   
 412 H Pleasant Valley                      ( 3-15, 81.1)    19- 7   
 415 H Saucon Valley                        ( 2-14, 79.6)    19- 5   
 419 H Abington Heights                     (12- 6, 83.8)    11-12   
 422 A Parkland                             (16- 5, 90.0)     6-22   
 424 H Bethlehem Catholic                   ( 0-14, 74.4)    16- 2   
 425 A Northwestern Lehigh                  (11- 8, 85.4)    11- 6   
 429 A Freedom Bethlehem                    ( 7-10, 84.8)    10- 8   
 501 H Easton Area                          (19- 1, 91.8)     7-17   
 515 H Emmaus                               ( 9-10, 84.8)    11-10   
 520 N Easton Area                          (19- 1, 91.8)     2-14

PREDICTION LIST

               -------------------------------------
               |Real   = actual goal margin        |
               |Pred   = predicted goal margin     |
               |+      = slightly above prediction |
               |++     = above prediction          |
               |+++    = well above prediction     |
               |-      = slightly below prediction |
               |--     = below prediction          |
               |---    = well below prediction     |
               |Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-)  |
               |         prediction. N/A when ten  |
               |         goal limit is exceeded    |
               |n/a    = Outside division          |
               -------------------------------------


   Date  Opponent               Score     Real Pred    +/-   Goals*
   318 A Northampton Area       21-10      11     4           0.56
   320 H Northwestern Lehigh     7- 6       1     1           0.36
   321 H Delaware Valley        10-11      -1    -2           0.52
   325 A Pleasant Valley        11-10       1     5    -     -3.54
   327 A Moravian Academy        8-17      -9    -1    --    -4.13
   328 H Northampton Area       19- 9      10     5           0.15
   401 H Liberty  Bethlehem      7- 4       3     3           0.46
   403 A Allentown Central Ca   10-20     -10    -4          -1.00
   408 H Emmaus                 14- 3      11     1    +      3.72
   410 A Southern Lehigh         8- 7       1     0           1.25
   412 H Pleasant Valley        19- 7      12     5           0.05
   415 H Saucon Valley          19- 5      14     6           0.00
   419 H Abington Heights       11-12      -1     2    -     -3.29
   422 A Parkland                6-22     -16    -4          -0.63
   424 H Bethlehem Catholic     16- 2      14    12           0.00
   425 A Northwestern Lehigh    11- 6       5     0    ++     4.77
   429 A Freedom Bethlehem      10- 8       2     1           1.13
   501 H Easton Area             7-17     -10    -6           0.00
   515 H Emmaus                 11-10       1     1          -0.28
   520 N Easton Area             2-14     -12    -6           0.00

UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES

   Date  Opponent               Score     Real Pred    +/-   Goals*
   327 A Moravian Academy        8-17      -9    -1    --    -4.13
   325 A Pleasant Valley        11-10       1     5    -     -3.54
   419 H Abington Heights       11-12      -1     2    -     -3.29

OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES

   Date  Opponent               Score     Real Pred    +/-   Goals*
   425 A Northwestern Lehigh    11- 6       5     0    ++     4.77
   408 H Emmaus                 14- 3      11     1    +      3.72

Nazareth Area Evaluation

The team that earns the point in the pair-wise comparison is based on three criteria: 
first is head-to-head, the winner gets the point, however, if they did not play each 
other, than it considers w-l versus common opponents. If their records are tied or they 
have no common opponents, than the tie-breaker becomes the better power rating.
The Common Opponent Point list in the table below has the record of the winner followed by the 
record of the loser for all common opponents

Opponent	Who Gets the Point?	Head-2-Head Point	Common Opponent Point	Power Rating Point
Abington	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Academy New Church	Academy New Church		insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0)	Academy New Church
AIM Academy	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Allentown Central Ca	Allentown Central Ca	Allentown Central Ca
Archbishop Carroll	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Archbishop Ryan	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Archbishop Wood	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Avon Grove	Avon Grove			Avon Grove
Avon Grove Charter	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Bayard Rustin	Bayard Rustin			Bayard Rustin
Bethlehem Catholic	Nazareth Area	Nazareth Area
Bishop Shanahan	Bishop Shanahan		tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1)	Bishop Shanahan
BL Charter	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Bonner-Prendergast	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Boyertown	Nazareth Area		insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1)	Nazareth Area
Cardinal OHara	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Central Bucks East	Central Bucks East		tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0)	Central Bucks East
Central Bucks South	Central Bucks South			Central Bucks South
Central Bucks West	Central Bucks West		tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1)	Central Bucks West
Central Philadelphia	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Cheltenham	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Church Farm School	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Coatesville	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Conestoga	Conestoga			Conestoga
Conwell Egan	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Council Rock North	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Council Rock South	Council Rock South			Council Rock South
Delaware Valley Frie	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Devon Prep	Devon Prep			Devon Prep
Downingtown East	Downingtown East			Downingtown East
Downingtown West	Downingtown West			Downingtown West
Easton Area	Easton Area	Easton Area
Emmaus	Nazareth Area	Nazareth Area
Episcopal Academy	Episcopal Academy			Episcopal Academy
Father Judge	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Frankford	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Freedom Bethlehem	Nazareth Area	Nazareth Area
Garnet Valley	Garnet Valley			Garnet Valley
George School	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
George Washington	George Washington			George Washington
Germantown Academy	Germantown Academy		tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1)	Germantown Academy
Great Valley	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Harriton	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Hatboro-Horsham	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Haverford HS	Haverford HS			Haverford HS
Haverford School	Haverford School			Haverford School
Hill School	Hill School			Hill School
Holy Ghost Prep	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Interboro	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Jack Barrack Academy	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Kennett	Kennett			Kennett
La Salle College	La Salle College			La Salle College
Lansdale Catholic	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Liberty Bethlehem	Nazareth Area	Nazareth Area
Lower Merion	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Malvern Prep	Malvern Prep			Malvern Prep
Marple Newtown	Marple Newtown			Marple Newtown
Masterman	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Mastery Charter Nort	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Methacton	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Moravian Academy	Moravian Academy	Moravian Academy
Neshaminy	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
New Hope-Solebury	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
North Penn	North Penn		insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0)	North Penn
Northampton Area	Nazareth Area	Nazareth Area
Northeast	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Northwestern Lehigh	Nazareth Area	Nazareth Area
Olney Charter	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Owen J Roberts	Owen J Roberts			Owen J Roberts
Oxford Area	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Parkland	Parkland	Parkland
Penn Charter	Penn Charter		tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1)	Penn Charter
Penncrest	Penncrest			Penncrest
Pennridge	Pennridge		tied - ( 1- 2) ( 1- 1)	Pennridge
Pennsbury	Pennsbury			Pennsbury
Perkiomen School	Perkiomen School			Perkiomen School
Perkiomen Valley	Perkiomen Valley			Perkiomen Valley
Phoenixville	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Pleasant Valley	Nazareth Area	Nazareth Area
Plymouth-Whitemarsh	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Pope John Paul II	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Pottsgrove	Nazareth Area		insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1)	Nazareth Area
Quakertown	Nazareth Area		Nazareth Area 2- 0 vs 0- 2
Radnor	Radnor			Radnor
Ridley	Ridley			Ridley
Roman Catholic	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Saucon Valley	Nazareth Area	Nazareth Area
Shipley School	Nazareth Area		tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1)	Nazareth Area
Solanco	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Souderton	Souderton			Souderton
South Philadelphia	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Southern Lehigh	Nazareth Area	Nazareth Area
Spring-Ford	Spring-Ford		insuffient: ( 0- 2)( 1- 1)	Spring-Ford
Springfield Twp	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Springfield-Delco	Springfield-Delco		insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0)	Springfield-Delco
Springside Chestnut	Springside Chestnut			Springside Chestnut
St Josephs Prep	St Josephs Prep			St Josephs Prep
Strath Haven	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Sun Valley	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Truman	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Unionville	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Upper Darby	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Upper Dublin	Upper Dublin			Upper Dublin
Upper Merion	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Upper Moreland	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
West Chester East	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
West Chester Henders	West Chester Henders			West Chester Henders
West Philadelphia	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Westtown	Westtown			Westtown
William Tennent	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Wissahickon	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Baldwin	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Bethel Park	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Butler Area	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Canon-McMillan	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Cathedral Prep	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Central Catholic	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Chartiers Valley	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Conneaut	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Erie-McDowell	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Fairview	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Fox Chapel	Fox Chapel			Fox Chapel
Franklin Regional	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Freeport Area	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Gateway	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Greensburg Central C	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Hampton	Hampton			Hampton
Hempfield Greensburg	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Hickory	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Indiana Area	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Knoch	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Latrobe	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Mars Area	Mars Area		tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 0)	Mars Area
Meadville-Crawford C	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Moon Area	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Mount Lebanon	Mount Lebanon			Mount Lebanon
North Allegheny	North Allegheny			North Allegheny
North Catholic	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
North Hills	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Norwin	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Penn-Trafford	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Peters Township	Peters Township			Peters Township
Pine Richland	Pine Richland		tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0)	Pine Richland
Plum	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Quaker Valley	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Seneca Valley	Seneca Valley			Seneca Valley
Seton LaSalle	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Sewickley Academy	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Shady Side Academy	Shady Side Academy			Shady Side Academy
Shaler Area	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
South Fayette	South Fayette			South Fayette
Taylor Allderdice	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Trinity Area	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Upper St Clair	Upper St Clair			Upper St Clair
West Allegheny	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Winchester Thurston	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Abington Heights	Abington Heights	Abington Heights
Bellefonte	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Berks Catholic	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Bishop McDevitt	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Carlisle	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Cedar Cliff	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Cedar Crest	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Central Dauphin	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Central Dauphin East	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Central York	Central York		tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0)	Central York
Chambersburg	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Cocalico	Cocalico			Cocalico
Conestoga Valley	Conestoga Valley			Conestoga Valley
Conrad Weiser	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Crestwood	Nazareth Area		insuffient: ( 0- 2)( 1- 1)	Nazareth Area
Cumberland Valley	Cumberland Valley			Cumberland Valley
Dallas	Nazareth Area		tied - ( 0- 2) ( 0- 2)	Nazareth Area
Dallastown	Dallastown			Dallastown
Daniel Boone	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Danville Area	Nazareth Area		insuffient: ( 1- 1)( 0- 2)	Nazareth Area
Delaware Valley	Delaware Valley	Delaware Valley
Delone Catholic	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Dover Area	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Eastern York	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Elizabethtown	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Ephrata	Ephrata			Ephrata
Exeter Township	Nazareth Area		insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1)	Nazareth Area
Garden Spot	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Gettysburg	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Governor Mifflin	Nazareth Area		insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1)	Nazareth Area
Hempfield	Hempfield		insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0)	Hempfield
Hershey	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Kennard-Dale	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Lake-Lehman	Nazareth Area		tied - ( 0- 2) ( 0- 2)	Nazareth Area
Lakeland	Nazareth Area		tied - ( 0- 2) ( 0- 2)	Nazareth Area
Lampeter-Strasburg	Lampeter-Strasburg			Lampeter-Strasburg
Lancaster CDS	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Lewisburg	Nazareth Area		tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1)	Nazareth Area
Lower Dauphin	Lower Dauphin			Lower Dauphin
Manheim Township	Manheim Township			Manheim Township
Mechanicsburg	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Mifflin County	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Mifflinburg	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Muhlenberg	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
New Oxford	New Oxford			New Oxford
North Pocono	Nazareth Area		insuffient: ( 1- 2)( 0- 3)	Nazareth Area
Northern York	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Palmyra	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Penn Manor	Penn Manor			Penn Manor
Red Land	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Red Lion	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Schuylkill Valley	Nazareth Area		insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1)	Nazareth Area
Scranton Prep	Scranton Prep		insuffient: ( 3- 3)( 4- 2)	Scranton Prep
Selinsgrove	Nazareth Area		insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0)	Nazareth Area
South-Western	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Spring Grove	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
State College	State College			State College
Susquehannock	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Trinity HS	Trinity HS		tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 0)	Trinity HS
Tunkhannock	Nazareth Area		tied - ( 0- 2) ( 0- 2)	Nazareth Area
Twin Valley	Twin Valley		tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1)	Twin Valley
Warwick	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
West York	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
Wilkes-Barre Area	Nazareth Area		tied - ( 0- 2) ( 0- 2)	Nazareth Area
Wilson West Lawn	Wilson West Lawn		insuffient: ( 1- 1)( 2- 0)	Wilson West Lawn
Wyoming Area	Nazareth Area		tied - ( 0- 2) ( 0- 2)	Nazareth Area
Wyoming Seminary	Nazareth Area		tied - ( 0- 2) ( 0- 2)	Nazareth Area
Wyomissing	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
York Catholic	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area
York Suburban	Nazareth Area			Nazareth Area

PowerWise = 151

division Games Only
Average number of games used in Games Correction = 15.72

 Date  Opponent          (W-L  PR)      SCORE       SAFE        SAFE       Home       No Games           SCI              
                                                    Loss        Win       Field      Correction         Points            
                                                    SLP         SWP     Advantage      Factor                       
                                                      
   0 A Northampton Ar  ( 6-12, 81.2)    21-10      -18.69      15.65       0.20         0.79            12.46
   0 H Northwestern L  (11- 8, 85.4)     7- 6      -14.48      19.86      -0.20         0.79            15.45
   0 H Delaware Valle  (13- 2, 87.6)    10-11      -12.31      22.02      -0.20         0.79            -9.84
   0 A Pleasant Valle  ( 3-15, 81.1)    11-10      -18.78      15.55       0.20         0.79            12.38
   0 A Moravian Acade  (11- 7, 86.5)     8-17      -13.38      20.96       0.20         0.79           -10.35
   0 H Northampton Ar  ( 6-12, 81.2)    19- 9      -18.69      15.65      -0.20         0.79            12.14
   0 H Liberty  Bethl  ( 6-12, 83.5)     7- 4      -16.37      17.97      -0.20         0.79            13.96
   0 A Allentown Cent  (19- 4, 89.7)    10-20      -10.25      24.09       0.20         0.79            -7.89
   0 H Emmaus          ( 9-10, 84.8)    14- 3      -15.12      19.22      -0.20         0.79            14.95
   0 A Southern Lehig  (10- 9, 85.9)     8- 7      -14.00      20.34       0.20         0.79            16.14
   0 H Pleasant Valle  ( 3-15, 81.1)    19- 7      -18.78      15.55      -0.20         0.79            12.06
   0 H Saucon Valley   ( 2-14, 79.6)    19- 5      -20.25      14.08      -0.20         0.79            10.91
   0 H Abington Heigh  (12- 6, 83.8)    11-12      -16.13      18.21      -0.20         0.79           -12.83
   0 A Parkland        (16- 5, 90.0)     6-22       -9.88      24.46       0.20         0.79            -7.60
   0 H Bethlehem Cath  ( 0-14, 74.4)    16- 2      -25.55       8.79      -0.20         0.79             6.75
   0 A Northwestern L  (11- 8, 85.4)    11- 6      -14.48      19.86       0.20         0.79            15.77
   0 A Freedom Bethle  ( 7-10, 84.8)    10- 8      -15.12      19.22       0.20         0.79            15.27
   0 H Easton Area     (19- 1, 91.8)     7-17       -8.10      26.23      -0.20         0.79            -6.53
   0 H Emmaus          ( 9-10, 84.8)    11-10      -15.12      19.22      -0.20         0.79            14.95
   0 N Easton Area     (19- 1, 91.8)     2-14       -8.10      26.23      -0.00         0.79            -6.37
                                                                                                        ------
                                                                                                       111.76

winning pts = 173.1725 losing points = -61.4142

SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
------------------------------------------------------------------------