---    UPDATED: 07-28-25 23:49 PDT

safe3step boys Heritage 1
  
Heritage              
W-L: ( 9- 6) PR = 85.0338

Schedule/Results All Games

Date Opponent Conf/State (W-L, PR) Score 306 A ThunderRidge ( 3-10, 80.9) 13- 6 307 H Middle Park (13- 4, 83.2) 9- 3 311 A Lutheran ( 7- 9, 84.4) 13- 6 312 H Green Mountain ( 7- 9, 83.1) 12- 4 314 H Chaparral ( 1-13, 79.8) 6- 3 317 H Lewis Palmer ( 9- 5, 88.0) 5-10 402 H Eaglecrest ( 8- 7, 83.6) 5- 3 404 A Arvada West ( 2-13, 78.0) 14- 5 409 A Boulder ( 7- 6, 86.0) 12-13 411 H Pine Creek ( 5- 9, 84.2) 8-14 416 H Northfield ( 9- 7, 88.5) 2-11 423 A Lewis Palmer ( 9- 5, 88.0) 6- 9 428 H Conifer ( 5-11, 80.0) 15- 6 430 H Douglas County ( 4-11, 81.1) 12- 7 507 A Poudre District (10- 6, 91.7) 3-13

PREDICTION LIST

               -------------------------------------
               |Real   = actual goal margin        |
               |Pred   = predicted goal margin     |
               |+      = slightly above prediction |
               |++     = above prediction          |
               |+++    = well above prediction     |
               |-      = slightly below prediction |
               |--     = below prediction          |
               |---    = well below prediction     |
               |Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-)  |
               |         prediction. N/A when ten  |
               |         goal limit is exceeded    |
               |n/a    = Outside division          |
               -------------------------------------


   Date  Opponent               Score     Real Pred    +/-   Goals*
   306 A ThunderRidge           13- 6       7     4           1.24
   307 H Middle Park             9- 3       6     2    +      2.79
   311 A Lutheran               13- 6       7     0    ++     4.74
   312 H Green Mountain         12- 4       8     2    +      2.70
   314 H Chaparral               6- 3       3     6    -     -2.00
   317 H Lewis Palmer            5-10      -5    -3    -     -2.42
   402 H Eaglecrest              5- 3       2     2           0.22
   404 A Arvada West            14- 5       9     7           0.00
   409 A Boulder                12-13      -1    -1           0.37
   411 H Pine Creek              8-14      -6     1    ---   -6.21
   416 H Northfield              2-11      -9    -3          -1.87
   423 A Lewis Palmer            6- 9      -3    -3           0.32
   428 H Conifer                15- 6       9     5           0.00
   430 H Douglas County         12- 7       5     4           0.72
   507 A Poudre District         3-13     -10    -7           0.00

UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES

   Date  Opponent               Score     Real Pred    +/-   Goals*
   411 H Pine Creek              8-14      -6     1    ---   -6.21
   314 H Chaparral               6- 3       3     6    -     -2.00
   317 H Lewis Palmer            5-10      -5    -3    -     -2.42

OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES

   Date  Opponent               Score     Real Pred    +/-   Goals*
   311 A Lutheran               13- 6       7     0    ++     4.74
   307 H Middle Park             9- 3       6     2    +      2.79
   312 H Green Mountain         12- 4       8     2    +      2.70

Heritage Evaluation

The team that earns the point in the pair-wise comparison is based on three criteria: 
first is head-to-head, the winner gets the point, however, if they did not play each
other, than it considers w-l versus common opponents. If their records are tied or they
have no common opponents, than the tie-breaker becomes the better power rating.
The Common Opponent Point list in the table below has the record of the winner followed by the
record of the loser for all common opponents
Opponent Who Gets
the Point?
Head-2-Head
Point
Common Opponent
Point
Power Rating
Point
Air Academy Air Academy Air Academy   5- 0 vs 3- 2
Arapahoe Arapahoe insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) Arapahoe
Arvada West Heritage Heritage  
Aspen Aspen tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) Aspen
Battle Mountain Heritage tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) Heritage
Boulder Boulder Boulder  
Castle View Castle View tied - ( 3- 0) ( 3- 0) Castle View
Chaparral Heritage Heritage  
Chatfield Chatfield insuffient: ( 2- 1)( 3- 0) Chatfield
Cherokee Trail Cherokee Trail insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) Cherokee Trail
Cherry Creek Cherry Creek insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) Cherry Creek
Cheyenne Mountain Cheyenne Mountain tied - ( 1- 1) ( 1- 1) Cheyenne Mountain
Colorado Academy Colorado Academy Colorado Academy   2- 0 vs 0- 2
Columbine Columbine tied - ( 4- 2) ( 4- 2) Columbine
Conifer Heritage Heritage  
Crested Butte Heritage   Heritage
Dakota Ridge Dakota Ridge tied - ( 3- 0) ( 3- 0) Dakota Ridge
Denver East Denver East insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) Denver East
Denver North Heritage Heritage   2- 0 vs 0- 2
Denver South Denver South Denver South   2- 0 vs 0- 2
Douglas County Heritage Heritage  
Durango Heritage   Heritage
Eagle Valley Heritage insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) Heritage
Eaglecrest Heritage Heritage  
Erie Erie Erie   2- 1 vs 0- 3
Evergreen Evergreen insuffient: ( 3- 1)( 4- 0) Evergreen
Fairview Fairview insuffient: ( 1- 2)( 2- 1) Fairview
Fountain Valley Heritage   Heritage
Fruita Monument Heritage   Heritage
Glenwood Springs Heritage insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) Heritage
Golden Golden tied - ( 3- 0) ( 3- 0) Golden
Grand Junction Grand Junction   Grand Junction
Grandview Grandview insuffient: ( 1- 1)( 2- 0) Grandview
Green Mountain Heritage Heritage  
Holy Family Heritage Heritage   2- 0 vs 0- 2
Jefferson Academy Heritage Heritage   2- 0 vs 0- 2
Kent Denver Kent Denver   Kent Denver
Lakewood Lakewood tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) Lakewood
Legend Legend Legend   4- 0 vs 2- 2
Lewis Palmer Lewis Palmer Lewis Palmer  
Littleton Heritage Heritage   2- 0 vs 0- 2
Lutheran Heritage Heritage  
Middle Park Heritage Heritage  
Monarch Monarch insuffient: ( 0- 3)( 1- 2) Monarch
Montrose Heritage   Heritage
Mountain Range Mountain Range tied - ( 0- 3) ( 0- 3) Mountain Range
Mountain Vista Mountain Vista insuffient: ( 2- 1)( 3- 0) Mountain Vista
Mullen Heritage Heritage   6- 0 vs 3- 3
Northfield Northfield Northfield  
Palmer Heritage insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) Heritage
Pine Creek Pine Creek Pine Creek  
Ponderosa Heritage Heritage   4- 0 vs 1- 3
Poudre District Poudre District Poudre District  
Prairie View Heritage insuffient: ( 2- 1)( 1- 2) Heritage
Pueblo West Heritage Heritage   3- 0 vs 1- 2
Ralston Valley Ralston Valley Ralston Valley   4- 0 vs 1- 3
Rangeview Heritage Heritage   2- 0 vs 0- 2
Regis Jesuit Regis Jesuit tied - ( 2- 0) ( 2- 0) Regis Jesuit
Resurrection Christi Resurrection Christi tied - ( 2- 1) ( 2- 1) Resurrection Christi
Rock Canyon Rock Canyon Rock Canyon   4- 0 vs 2- 2
Smoky Hill Heritage Heritage   2- 0 vs 0- 2
St Marys HS Heritage insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) Heritage
Steamboat Springs Steamboat Springs tied - ( 2- 0) ( 2- 0) Steamboat Springs
Summit Heritage   Heritage
Telluride Telluride tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) Telluride
Thomas Jefferson Heritage Heritage   2- 0 vs 0- 2
Thompson Valley Heritage Heritage   3- 0 vs 0- 3
ThunderRidge Heritage Heritage  
Vail Mountain Heritage tied - ( 2- 0) ( 2- 0) Heritage
Valor Christian Valor Christian tied - ( 2- 0) ( 2- 0) Valor Christian
Vanguard School Heritage Heritage   4- 0 vs 0- 4
Windsor Heritage insuffient: ( 2- 1)( 1- 2) Heritage

PowerWise = 35


division Games Only
Average number of games used in Games Correction = 15.04

 Date  Opponent          (W-L  PR)      SCORE       SAFE        SAFE       Home       No Games           SCI              
                                                    Loss        Win       Field      Correction         Points            
                                                    SLP         SWP     Advantage      Factor                       
                                                      
   0 A ThunderRidge    ( 3-10, 80.9)    13- 6      -18.99      14.51       0.37         1.00            14.92
   0 H Middle Park     (13- 4, 83.2)     9- 3      -16.71      16.80      -0.37         1.00            16.47
   0 A Lutheran        ( 7- 9, 84.4)    13- 6      -15.49      18.01       0.37         1.00            18.43
   0 H Green Mountain  ( 7- 9, 83.1)    12- 4      -16.80      16.70      -0.37         1.00            16.38
   0 H Chaparral       ( 1-13, 79.8)     6- 3      -20.09      13.42      -0.37         1.00            13.08
   0 H Lewis Palmer    ( 9- 5, 88.0)     5-10      -11.92      21.59      -0.37         1.00           -12.32
   0 H Eaglecrest      ( 8- 7, 83.6)     5- 3      -16.28      17.22      -0.37         1.00            16.90
   0 A Arvada West     ( 2-13, 78.0)    14- 5      -21.89      11.61       0.37         1.00            12.01
   0 A Boulder         ( 7- 6, 86.0)    12-13      -13.87      19.63       0.37         1.00           -13.54
   0 H Pine Creek      ( 5- 9, 84.2)     8-14      -15.71      17.79      -0.37         1.00           -16.12
   0 H Northfield      ( 9- 7, 88.5)     2-11      -11.37      22.13      -0.37         1.00           -11.77
   0 A Lewis Palmer    ( 9- 5, 88.0)     6- 9      -11.92      21.59       0.37         1.00           -11.58
   0 H Conifer         ( 5-11, 80.0)    15- 6      -19.87      13.64      -0.37         1.00            13.30
   0 H Douglas County  ( 4-11, 81.1)    12- 7      -18.78      14.73      -0.37         1.00            14.40
   0 A Poudre Distric  (10- 6, 91.7)     3-13       -8.19      25.31       0.37         1.00            -7.84
                                                                                                        ------
                                                                                                        62.72

winning pts = 135.8952 losing points = -73.1722

             SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
------------------------------------------------------------------------