Colonial Forge
W-L: (14- 2) PR = 84.3535Schedule/Results All Games
Date Opponent Conf/State (W-L, PR) Score 317 A Stafford ( 8- 7, 80.2) 11- 0 319 H Massaponax ( 2-13, 75.0) 17- 0 401 A Mountain View (10-10, 81.6) 13- 6 403 H Riverbend ( 8- 9, 80.5) 8- 1 407 A Brooke Point (12- 4, 83.7) 5-12 410 H Colgan (13- 5, 83.1) 11- 4 414 A North Stafford ( 1-12, 74.0) 15- 2 416 H Stafford ( 8- 7, 80.2) 9- 3 422 A Massaponax ( 2-13, 75.0) 12- 0 424 H Mountain View (10-10, 81.6) 10- 7 428 A Riverbend ( 8- 9, 80.5) 6- 5 501 A Brooke Point (12- 4, 83.7) 6- 4 508 H North Stafford ( 1-12, 74.0) 10- 3 520 H Stafford ( 8- 7, 80.2) 13- 0 522 H Mountain View (10-10, 81.6) 7- 5 527 H Gainesville (15- 5, 88.5) 2-14
PREDICTION LIST
-------------------------------------
|Real = actual goal margin |
|Pred = predicted goal margin |
|+ = slightly above prediction |
|++ = above prediction |
|+++ = well above prediction |
|- = slightly below prediction |
|-- = below prediction |
|--- = well below prediction |
|Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-) |
| prediction. N/A when ten |
| goal limit is exceeded |
|n/a = Outside division |
-------------------------------------
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals*
317 A Stafford 11- 0 11 4 1.43
319 H Massaponax 17- 0 17 10 0.00
401 A Mountain View 13- 6 7 2 + 2.85
403 H Riverbend 8- 1 7 4 0.54
407 A Brooke Point 5-12 -7 0 -- -5.01
410 H Colgan 11- 4 7 2 + 3.19
414 A North Stafford 15- 2 13 10 0.00
416 H Stafford 9- 3 6 5 0.21
422 A Massaponax 12- 0 12 9 0.00
424 H Mountain View 10- 7 3 3 -0.37
428 A Riverbend 6- 5 1 3 - -2.24
501 A Brooke Point 6- 4 2 0 1.99
508 H North Stafford 10- 3 7 11 0.00
520 H Stafford 13- 0 13 5 0.21
522 H Mountain View 7- 5 2 3 -1.37
527 H Gainesville 2-14 -12 -4 -1.44
|
UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 407 A Brooke Point 5-12 -7 0 -- -5.01 428 A Riverbend 6- 5 1 3 - -2.24 |
OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 401 A Mountain View 13- 6 7 2 + 2.85 410 H Colgan 11- 4 7 2 + 3.19 |
Colonial Forge Evaluation
The team that earns the point in the pair-wise comparison is based on three criteria:
first is head-to-head, the winner gets the point, however, if they did not play each
other, than it considers w-l versus common opponents. If their records are tied or they
have no common opponents, than the tie-breaker becomes the better power rating.
The Common Opponent Point list in the table below has the record of the winner followed by the
record of the loser for all common opponents
| Opponent | Who Gets the Point? | Head-2-Head Point |
Common Opponent Point |
Power Rating Point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albemarle | Albemarle | Albemarle | ||
| Alexandria City | Alexandria City | Alexandria City | ||
| Annandale | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Atlee | Atlee | Atlee | ||
| Battlefield | Battlefield | insuffient: ( 2- 1)( 3- 0) | Battlefield | |
| Bayside | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Benedictine | Benedictine | Benedictine | ||
| Bishop Ireton | Bishop Ireton | Bishop Ireton | ||
| Bishop OConnell | Bishop OConnell | Bishop OConnell | ||
| Blacksburg | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Blue Ridge School | Blue Ridge School | Blue Ridge School | ||
| Brentsville | Brentsville | Brentsville | ||
| Briar Woods | Briar Woods | tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) | Briar Woods | |
| Broad Run | Broad Run | Broad Run | ||
| Brooke Point | Colonial Forge | insuffient: ( 5- 1)( 4- 2) | Colonial Forge | |
| Cape Henry Collegiat | Cape Henry Collegiat | Cape Henry Collegiat | ||
| Catholic HS | Catholic HS | Catholic HS | ||
| Cave Spring | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Centreville | Centreville | Centreville | ||
| Chantilly | Chantilly | Chantilly | ||
| Charlottesville | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Christchurch | Christchurch | Christchurch | ||
| Christiansburg | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Clover Hill | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Colgan | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Collegiate School | Collegiate School | Collegiate School | ||
| Cosby | Cosby | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Cosby | |
| Covenant School | Covenant School | Covenant School | ||
| Cox | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Culpeper County | Colonial Forge | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | Colonial Forge | |
| Deep Run | Deep Run | Deep Run | ||
| Dominion | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Douglas Freeman | Douglas Freeman | Douglas Freeman | ||
| Eastern View | Colonial Forge | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | Colonial Forge | |
| EC Glass | EC Glass | EC Glass | ||
| Edison | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Episcopal | Episcopal | Episcopal | ||
| Eukarya Christian | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Fairfax | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Falls Church | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Fauquier | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| First Colonial | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Fishburne Military A | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Flint Hill | Flint Hill | Flint Hill | ||
| Fluvanna County | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Forest Park | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge 2- 1 vs 0- 3 | ||
| Fork Union Military | Fork Union Military | Fork Union Military | ||
| Franklin County | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Fredericksburg Acade | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Fredericksburg Chris | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Freedom South Ridin | Freedom South Ridin | tied - ( 1- 1) ( 1- 1) | Freedom South Ridin | |
| Freedom Woodbridge | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Gainesville | Gainesville | Gainesville | ||
| Gar-field | Colonial Forge | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | Colonial Forge | |
| Glen Allen | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Goochland | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Grafton LC | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Grassfield LC | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Green Run | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Handley | Handley | Handley | ||
| Hanover | Hanover | Hanover | ||
| Hayfield | Hayfield | Hayfield | ||
| Heritage Leesburg | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Herndon | Herndon | Herndon | ||
| Hickory LC | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Hidden Valley | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Highland School | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Highland Springs | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Hylton | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge 3- 2 vs 0- 4 | ||
| Independence | Independence | Independence | ||
| James Monroe | Colonial Forge | tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) | Colonial Forge | |
| James River | James River | James River | ||
| Jamestown LC | Jamestown LC | Jamestown LC | ||
| Jefferson Forest | Jefferson Forest | Jefferson Forest | ||
| John Champe | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Justice | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Kellam | Kellam | Kellam | ||
| Kempsville | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Kettle Run | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Lafayette LC | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Lake Braddock | Lake Braddock | Lake Braddock | ||
| Landstown | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Langley | Langley | Langley | ||
| Lewis | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Liberty Bealeton | Colonial Forge | tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) | Colonial Forge | |
| Lightridge | Lightridge | Lightridge | ||
| Lloyd C Bird | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Lord Botetourt | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Loudoun County | Loudoun County | Loudoun County | ||
| Loudoun Valley | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Madison | Madison | Madison | ||
| Manchester | Manchester | Manchester | ||
| Marshall | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Massaponax | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Matoaca | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Maury LC | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| McLean | McLean | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | McLean | |
| Mechanicsville | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Menchville LC | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Meridian | Meridian | Meridian | ||
| Midlothian | Midlothian | Midlothian | ||
| Mills Godwin | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Monacan | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Monticello | Monticello | Monticello | ||
| Mount Vernon | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Mountain View | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Nansemond-Suffolk Ac | Nansemond-Suffolk Ac | Nansemond-Suffolk Ac | ||
| New Covenant School | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Norfolk Academy | Norfolk Academy | Norfolk Academy | ||
| Norfolk Christian | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Norfolk Collegiate | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| North Cross School | North Cross School | North Cross School | ||
| North Stafford | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Northern VA Home Sch | Colonial Forge | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Colonial Forge | |
| Oakton | Oakton | Oakton | ||
| Ocean Lakes | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Orange County | Colonial Forge | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | Colonial Forge | |
| Osbourn | Colonial Forge | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Colonial Forge | |
| Osbourn Park | Colonial Forge | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Colonial Forge | |
| Park View | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Patrick Henry Ashla | Colonial Forge | tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) | Colonial Forge | |
| Patrick Henry Roano | Patrick Henry Roano | Patrick Henry Roano | ||
| Patriot | Patriot | tied - ( 2- 1) ( 2- 1) | Patriot | |
| Paul VI | Paul VI | Paul VI | ||
| Potomac Falls | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Potomac School | Potomac School | Potomac School | ||
| Potomac-Dumfries | Colonial Forge | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | Colonial Forge | |
| Powhatan | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Princess Anne | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Riverbend | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Riverside | Riverside | Riverside | ||
| Robinson | Robinson | Robinson | ||
| Rock Ridge | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Rockbridge County | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Rockingham LC | Rockingham LC | Rockingham LC | ||
| Salem | Salem | Salem | ||
| Salem Virginia Beach | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Seton School | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| South County | South County | South County | ||
| South Lakes | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| St Annes-Belfield | St Annes-Belfield | St Annes-Belfield | ||
| St Christophers | St Christophers | St Christophers | ||
| St John Paul the Gre | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| St Stephen-St Agnes | St Stephen-St Agnes | St Stephen-St Agnes | ||
| Stafford | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Steward School | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Stone Bridge | Stone Bridge | Stone Bridge | ||
| Strasburg LC | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Tabb LC | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Tallwood | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Tandem Friends | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Thomas Dale | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Thomas Jefferson | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Trinity Christian | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Trinity Episcopal | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Trinity Meadow View | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Tuscarora | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Unity Reed | Colonial Forge | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Colonial Forge | |
| Veritas School | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Virginia Academy | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Virginia Episcopal S | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Wakefield HS | Colonial Forge | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | Colonial Forge | |
| Wakefield School | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Washington-Liberty | Washington-Liberty | Washington-Liberty | ||
| West Potomac | West Potomac | West Potomac | ||
| West Springfield | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Western Albemarle | Western Albemarle | Western Albemarle | ||
| Westfield | Westfield | Westfield | ||
| William Byrd | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| William Fleming | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Woodberry Forest | Woodberry Forest | Woodberry Forest | ||
| Woodbridge | Colonial Forge | insuffient: ( 1- 1)( 0- 2) | Colonial Forge | |
| Woodgrove | Woodgrove | Woodgrove | ||
| Woodson | Woodson | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Woodson | |
| York LC | Colonial Forge | Colonial Forge | ||
| Yorktown | Yorktown | Yorktown |
PowerWise = 105
division Games OnlyAverage number of games used in Games Correction = 13.94
Date Opponent (W-L PR) SCORE SAFE SAFE Home No Games SCI
Loss Win Field Correction Points
SLP SWP Advantage Factor
0 A Stafford ( 8- 7, 80.2) 11- 0 -19.72 15.28 0.61 0.87 13.85
0 H Massaponax ( 2-13, 75.0) 17- 0 -24.88 10.12 -0.61 0.87 8.29
0 A Mountain View (10-10, 81.6) 13- 6 -18.31 16.70 0.61 0.87 15.08
0 H Riverbend ( 8- 9, 80.5) 8- 1 -19.39 15.61 -0.61 0.87 13.07
0 A Brooke Point (12- 4, 83.7) 5-12 -16.16 18.84 0.61 0.87 -13.56
0 H Colgan (13- 5, 83.1) 11- 4 -16.75 18.25 -0.61 0.87 15.37
0 A North Stafford ( 1-12, 74.0) 15- 2 -25.87 9.13 0.61 0.87 8.49
0 H Stafford ( 8- 7, 80.2) 9- 3 -19.72 15.28 -0.61 0.87 12.78
0 A Massaponax ( 2-13, 75.0) 12- 0 -24.88 10.12 0.61 0.87 9.35
0 H Mountain View (10-10, 81.6) 10- 7 -18.31 16.70 -0.61 0.87 14.02
0 A Riverbend ( 8- 9, 80.5) 6- 5 -19.39 15.61 0.61 0.87 14.13
0 A Brooke Point (12- 4, 83.7) 6- 4 -16.16 18.84 0.61 0.87 16.95
0 H North Stafford ( 1-12, 74.0) 10- 3 -25.87 9.13 -0.61 0.87 7.43
0 H Stafford ( 8- 7, 80.2) 13- 0 -19.72 15.28 -0.61 0.87 12.78
0 H Mountain View (10-10, 81.6) 7- 5 -18.31 16.70 -0.61 0.87 14.02
0 H Gainesville (15- 5, 88.5) 2-14 -11.37 23.63 -0.61 0.87 -10.44
------
151.63
|
winning pts = 175.6245 losing points = -23.9984
SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
------------------------------------------------------------------------