2016 NCAA Women's Division III
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 Middlebury NESCAC 22 1 2 2 1 1 3 1 5 14.00 2 Salisbury Capital 18 3 6 20 7 4 2 3 9 1.00 3 Cortland SUNYAC 21 1 1 8 2 2 6 2 10 52.00 4 Franklin & Marsh Centennial 21 3 3 12 4 5 5 4 14 7.00 5 Trinity (CT) NESCAC 19 4 4 1 3 7 1 6 14 11.00 6 College of New J NJAC 20 2 10 35 6 3 7 5 15 0.10 7 Gettysburg Centennial 18 3 5 9 5 6 4 7 17 4.00 8 Brockport SUNYAC 15 4 7 10 9 9 8 9 26 2.00 9 Augustana CCIW 18 3 53 140 14 8 10 10 28 0.10 10 Amherst NESCAC 13 5 9 4 8 11 13 16 40 3.00 11 Pomona-Pitzer SCIAC 16 4 40 51 24 10 11 21 42 0.10 12 St. Mary's (MD) Capital 16 4 31 36 13 13 22 8 43 0.10 13 Colorado College Independent 14 3 33 87 18 12 24 11 47 0.10 14 Chapman SCIAC 15 5 47 59 51 21 14 17 52 0.10 15 Mary Washington Capital 15 5 22 43 26 14 21 18 53 0.10 16 York Capital 12 7 16 17 31 15 15 28 58 0.10 17 Catholic (DC) Landmark 13 8 18 22 50 16 9 35 60 0.10 18 St. John Fisher Empire Eight 17 4 12 39 11 20 30 15 65 0.10 19 Bates NESCAC 12 6 11 11 19 22 17 30 69 2.00 20 Ithaca Empire Eight 14 6 14 24 16 19 23 29 71 0.10 21 Montclair State NJAC 12 6 37 33 35 18 20 33 71 0.10 22 Claremont-Mudd-S SCIAC 13 4 48 70 39 28 32 20 80 0.10 23 Colby NESCAC 12 4 21 16 10 17 41 22 80 0.10 24 Denison North Coast 13 6 49 62 52 23 25 36 84 0.10 25 Mount Union Ohio 16 4 41 76 20 24 37 24 85 0.10 26 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 13 6 27 55 38 40 19 27 86 0.10 27 Messiah Commonwealth 14 6 17 46 30 36 33 25 94 0.10 28 Tufts NESCAC 9 7 13 5 28 25 16 53 94 1.00 29 Oswego SUNYAC 12 4 15 27 17 35 49 19 103 0.10 30 Dickinson Centennial 10 8 28 18 48 32 12 60 104 0.10 31 Geneseo SUNYAC 12 6 20 15 22 41 34 32 107 0.10 32 Meredith USA South Atl. 17 2 58 130 12 26 77 12 115 0.10 33 Rhodes SAA 13 5 107 126 66 39 36 40 115 0.10 34 Concordia-Wiscon Midwest 15 3 153 207 21 47 58 13 118 0.10 35 Clarkson Liberty League 12 4 26 50 25 29 60 31 120 0.10 36 Washington Colle Centennial 11 7 35 26 68 27 28 66 121 0.10 37 Illinois Wesleya CCIW 15 4 140 181 34 50 50 23 123 0.10 38 Springfield NEWMAC 16 6 36 47 33 30 43 51 124 0.10 39 Christopher Newp Capital 11 5 23 49 44 48 52 26 126 0.10 40 Capital Ohio 12 5 80 118 70 33 38 58 129 0.10 41 Muhlenberg Centennial 13 5 32 54 32 34 69 34 137 0.10 42 Rowan NJAC 11 6 50 45 71 31 53 63 147 0.10 43 Union Liberty League 11 5 29 23 37 44 67 38 149 0.10 44 FDU-Florham Freedom 14 7 71 83 56 49 47 55 151 0.10 45 Stevens Empire Eight 10 7 24 42 67 45 27 79 151 0.10 46 Stockton NJAC 13 6 62 84 59 55 44 52 151 0.10 47 William Smith Liberty League 12 8 19 21 69 37 29 93 159 0.10 48 Hamilton NESCAC 10 6 8 3 23 38 75 47 160 3.00 49 Nazareth Empire Eight 11 6 25 37 36 54 55 56 165 0.10 50 Stevenson Commonwealth 10 9 57 25 79 43 26 96 165 0.10 51 Ursinus Centennial 8 8 54 40 99 52 31 92 175 0.10 52 Roger Williams Comm. Coast 15 4 55 89 27 42 98 37 177 0.10 53 Babson NEWMAC 13 4 43 52 29 46 93 39 178 0.10 54 Haverford Centennial 10 7 52 32 83 56 54 80 190 0.10 55 MIT NEWMAC 12 6 51 63 64 58 56 78 192 0.10 56 Cabrini CSAC 14 6 96 139 49 84 71 45 200 0.10 57 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 12 6 46 72 86 67 65 69 201 0.10 58 Bridgewater Stat MASCAC 12 6 82 123 87 57 64 85 206 0.10 59 Fredonia SUNYAC 7 10 42 13 122 59 18 134 211 0.10 60 Marymount Capital 10 9 67 68 140 73 35 106 214 0.10 61 Lynchburg Old Dominion 12 6 89 93 89 69 66 81 216 0.10 62 Keene State Little East 12 8 87 77 101 53 59 105 217 0.10 63 Bowdoin NESCAC 7 8 30 14 78 65 51 103 219 0.10 64 Kean NJAC 12 5 61 103 53 63 117 49 229 0.10 65 Johnson & Wales Great Northeas 13 6 126 169 85 71 79 84 234 0.10 66 Lasell Great Northeas 13 7 115 166 102 74 61 99 234 0.10 67 Westfield State MASCAC 14 5 95 134 60 64 107 64 235 0.10 68 Redlands SCIAC 10 8 60 66 136 60 76 100 236 0.10 69 Plymouth State Little East 11 7 100 108 95 61 83 95 239 0.10 70 Saint Joseph's ( Great Northeas 16 2 104 204 15 66 159 14 239 0.10 71 Wittenberg North Coast 13 4 75 105 47 51 137 54 242 0.10 72 Fitchburg State MASCAC 14 5 113 162 57 72 110 61 243 0.10 73 North Central CCIW 13 5 120 220 65 93 97 57 247 0.10 74 Wesleyan (CT) NESCAC 5 9 38 6 105 78 39 138 255 0.10 75 St. Joseph's (NY Skyline 14 5 101 125 46 76 142 41 259 0.10 76 Greensboro USA South Atl. 12 4 98 151 40 79 136 46 261 0.10 77 Canton Independent 11 5 109 115 61 68 125 72 265 0.10 78 Roanoke Old Dominion 9 9 81 75 149 102 40 124 266 0.10 79 Carthage CCIW 10 6 131 191 92 101 95 73 269 0.10 80 Utica Empire Eight 9 7 76 56 96 77 81 111 269 0.10 81 John Carroll Ohio 11 5 102 145 76 80 113 77 270 0.10 82 Piedmont USA South Atl. 10 7 124 156 113 89 73 114 276 0.10 83 Kenyon North Coast 10 4 72 121 54 62 158 59 279 0.10 84 St. Lawrence Liberty League 10 8 45 38 104 70 91 118 279 0.10 85 Western New Engl Comm. Coast 12 7 84 96 108 86 88 107 281 0.10 86 Skidmore Liberty League 10 8 39 41 107 81 72 130 283 0.10 87 Allegheny North Coast 9 9 92 94 157 91 57 147 295 0.10 88 Wellesley NEWMAC 9 8 88 67 129 85 84 126 295 0.10 89 Lebanon Valley Commonwealth 11 8 66 57 120 75 101 121 297 0.10 90 Emmanuel Great Northeas 11 5 138 185 75 94 130 75 299 0.10 91 Occidental SCIAC 8 11 69 74 213 97 45 158 300 0.10 92 Emerson NEWMAC 10 8 73 85 132 90 82 133 305 0.10 93 Calvin MIAA 12 6 143 190 80 110 115 82 307 0.10 94 Williams NESCAC 5 11 34 7 125 103 42 166 311 0.10 95 Eastern Connecti Little East 11 6 97 120 91 92 129 91 312 0.10 96 Oberlin North Coast 10 7 85 112 117 99 96 117 312 0.10 97 Potsdam SUNYAC 7 9 77 48 118 98 74 142 314 0.10 98 Wheaton NEWMAC 9 9 56 53 146 100 78 139 317 0.10 99 Aurora Midwest 10 9 170 198 151 111 63 144 318 0.10 100 Connecticut Coll NESCAC 5 10 59 19 119 107 68 150 325 0.10 101 Rensselaer Liberty League 7 8 78 34 124 108 100 123 331 0.10 102 Dubuque CCIW 11 6 182 231 93 125 124 83 332 0.10 103 SUNY Poly NEAC 13 4 127 211 41 104 186 42 332 0.10 104 McDaniel Centennial 5 11 86 29 170 114 46 175 335 0.10 105 RIT Liberty League 8 8 44 31 114 105 102 129 336 0.10 106 Scranton Landmark 11 7 65 79 103 83 156 102 341 0.10 107 Wooster North Coast 11 6 105 129 100 87 170 88 345 0.10 108 Castleton North Atlantic 12 6 106 168 81 106 157 86 349 0.10 109 Oneonta SUNYAC 6 11 70 30 148 119 48 184 351 0.10 110 Rutgers-Camden NJAC 7 8 147 127 137 126 103 125 354 0.10 111 Pacific (OR) Northwest 10 4 117 161 55 121 185 50 356 0.10 112 Albright Commonwealth 11 7 64 80 84 95 175 89 359 0.10 113 Washington & Jef Ohio River 13 4 169 214 43 116 199 44 359 0.10 114 Lycoming Commonwealth 12 5 68 122 63 112 182 67 361 0.10 115 Birmingham-South SAA 12 5 139 157 73 88 206 71 365 0.10 116 Albion MIAA 10 7 155 180 110 129 140 98 367 0.10 117 Centre SAA 12 5 110 164 74 82 211 74 367 0.10 118 Frostburg State Capital 6 8 103 69 133 137 122 109 368 0.10 119 Transylvania Ohio River 13 4 164 246 42 134 193 43 370 0.10 120 Drew Landmark 7 11 79 65 206 115 70 187 372 0.10 121 Elizabethtown Landmark 7 9 123 95 152 113 106 155 374 0.10 122 George Fox Northwest 9 5 135 163 82 132 167 76 375 0.10 123 U. of New Englan Comm. Coast 10 7 114 109 115 120 152 110 382 0.10 124 Illinois Tech Midwest 13 4 190 262 45 109 229 48 386 0.10 125 Neumann CSAC 13 6 133 176 77 131 188 68 387 0.10 126 Augsburg Midwest 10 8 198 252 130 150 121 119 390 0.10 127 Southwestern Independent 8 8 167 150 145 142 111 137 390 0.10 128 Susquehanna Landmark 8 9 93 71 156 117 120 159 396 0.10 129 Endicott Comm. Coast 8 10 99 78 169 122 104 171 397 0.10 130 Misericordia Freedom 10 9 112 119 155 128 119 152 399 0.10 131 Mass.-Dartmouth Little East 8 8 134 144 144 127 127 146 400 0.10 132 Guilford Old Dominion 7 10 119 97 193 143 87 172 402 0.10 133 Colby-Sawyer North Atlantic 12 7 162 201 106 130 169 104 403 0.10 134 Regis (MA) NECC 12 7 175 223 98 123 180 101 404 0.10 135 Cazenovia NEAC 11 6 158 216 90 140 176 90 406 0.10 136 Buffalo State SUNYAC 5 12 63 28 191 136 62 211 409 0.10 137 Berry SAA 8 8 157 170 143 147 123 145 415 0.10 138 Methodist USA South Atl. 8 8 150 152 121 118 178 122 418 0.10 139 Otterbein Ohio 5 10 141 116 204 138 92 189 419 0.10 140 Baldwin Wallace Ohio 11 7 94 135 111 96 215 112 423 0.10 141 Worcester State MASCAC 9 10 137 155 184 124 118 185 427 0.10 142 Hamline Independent 10 6 193 263 94 160 179 94 433 0.10 143 DePauw North Coast 5 11 144 99 221 133 80 222 435 0.10 144 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 7 9 151 117 171 141 126 168 435 0.10 145 Framingham State MASCAC 9 9 192 189 161 148 132 156 436 0.10 146 Whittier SCIAC 7 11 91 73 219 135 105 196 436 0.10 147 Huntingdon USA South Atl. 6 9 197 177 174 155 112 173 440 0.10 148 Arcadia Commonwealth 6 10 121 82 190 144 108 197 449 0.10 149 Curry Comm. Coast 10 8 146 171 131 152 168 132 452 0.10 150 Wilkes Freedom 12 5 148 178 72 146 238 70 454 0.10 151 Morrisville NEAC 9 9 159 175 162 158 147 157 462 0.10 152 Swarthmore Centennial 5 11 90 61 189 164 109 193 466 0.10 153 Mount Holyoke NEWMAC 3 11 122 60 218 153 90 224 467 0.10 154 Salem State MASCAC 7 9 179 173 172 149 149 169 467 0.10 155 Houghton Empire Eight 5 11 152 92 196 159 94 216 469 0.10 156 Ramapo NJAC 6 10 165 124 182 165 131 177 473 0.10 157 Bridgewater Old Dominion 9 9 125 133 158 172 155 153 480 0.10 158 Bryn Mawr Centennial 6 10 180 106 160 179 141 160 480 0.10 159 Vassar Liberty League 6 9 83 58 173 151 151 178 480 0.10 160 Husson North Atlantic 7 7 205 205 123 174 189 120 483 0.10 161 Goucher Landmark 8 8 111 114 138 169 183 140 492 0.10 162 Purchase Skyline 9 4 160 226 58 178 253 62 493 0.10 163 Southern Maine Little East 6 10 129 128 188 156 134 203 493 0.10 164 Rochester Liberty League 4 12 74 44 231 157 89 248 494 0.10 165 Hartwick Empire Eight 5 10 136 81 180 161 144 191 496 0.10 166 Merchant Marine Landmark 8 6 168 158 97 175 224 97 496 0.10 167 Western Connecti Little East 6 9 128 113 177 154 165 179 498 0.10 168 Medaille NEAC 10 7 195 242 112 187 202 113 502 0.10 169 Elmira Empire Eight 6 9 154 100 153 170 173 161 504 0.10 170 Saint Vincent Ohio River 8 10 186 196 164 145 196 163 504 0.10 171 Gordon Comm. Coast 6 10 130 102 195 162 145 198 505 0.10 172 Hope MIAA 7 6 177 206 88 167 252 87 506 0.10 173 Simmons Great Northeas 8 9 194 188 165 168 174 164 506 0.10 174 Elmhurst CCIW 4 12 227 197 246 189 85 234 508 0.10 175 Franciscan Independent 8 5 216 247 62 177 270 65 512 0.10 176 King's Freedom 6 10 163 131 197 163 153 199 515 0.10 177 Benedictine Midwest 7 9 213 259 168 185 164 167 516 0.10 178 Norwich Great Northeas 6 10 212 210 200 180 138 202 520 0.10 179 Sewanee SAA 7 11 132 137 183 139 191 192 522 0.10 180 Hendrix SAA 7 7 189 187 126 166 230 127 523 0.10 181 Alfred Empire Eight 4 13 183 107 248 183 86 256 525 0.10 182 Alvernia Commonwealth 6 9 118 98 167 176 190 170 536 0.10 183 New England Coll North Atlantic 11 8 191 255 127 190 222 128 540 0.10 184 Southern Virgini Capital 7 10 174 141 141 182 243 115 540 0.10 185 Widener Commonwealth 5 10 108 88 202 173 166 207 546 0.10 186 Eastern Freedom 4 13 187 104 252 184 114 249 547 0.10 187 Franklin Ohio River 6 6 218 253 109 199 245 108 552 0.10 188 Wesley Capital 3 12 178 91 235 212 128 215 555 0.10 189 Farmingdale Stat Skyline 8 10 142 132 186 171 203 182 556 0.10 190 Whitman Northwest 4 10 176 147 210 206 160 195 561 0.10 191 Mount St. Joseph Ohio River 7 9 202 225 176 188 198 176 562 0.10 192 Rivier Great Northeas 6 12 206 199 237 192 139 238 569 0.10 193 Coast Guard NEWMAC 2 14 185 86 266 205 99 266 570 0.10 194 Mount Saint Mary Skyline 7 8 166 182 147 204 221 148 573 0.10 195 New Paltz SUNYAC 3 13 156 64 230 198 133 242 573 0.10 196 Muskingum Ohio 5 12 210 167 241 186 148 241 575 0.10 197 Marywood CSAC 8 10 171 183 187 197 195 188 580 0.10 198 Smith NEWMAC 5 12 145 111 244 191 146 244 581 0.10 199 Kalamazoo MIAA 5 11 200 165 223 200 172 213 585 0.10 200 Ohio Northern Ohio 7 9 207 179 135 181 269 136 586 0.10 201 Virginia Wesleya Old Dominion 4 13 172 110 260 214 116 257 587 0.10 202 St. Mary's (IN) MIAA 8 9 208 240 166 208 217 165 590 0.10 203 Salve Regina Comm. Coast 4 11 149 146 226 193 171 227 591 0.10 204 Beloit Midwest 3 11 245 227 228 209 154 229 592 0.10 205 Adrian MIAA 4 11 196 193 224 207 161 225 593 0.10 206 Mount Ida Great Northeas 4 13 230 194 259 201 135 260 596 0.10 207 Shenandoah Old Dominion 5 12 116 101 243 202 162 235 599 0.10 208 Dallas Independent 5 7 241 268 116 218 266 116 600 0.10 209 Moravian Independent 6 10 161 160 199 194 205 201 600 0.10 210 Manhattanville Freedom 6 10 173 172 198 195 207 200 602 0.10 211 Wheelock NECC 10 8 217 267 142 211 255 143 609 0.10 212 Old Westbury Skyline 6 12 184 154 236 196 181 237 614 0.10 213 Wartburg Midwest 7 10 225 264 201 203 208 204 615 0.10 214 Maine-Farmington North Atlantic 5 8 242 233 154 226 242 151 619 0.10 215 Carroll CCIW 4 13 256 235 258 225 143 253 621 0.10 216 Nichols Comm. Coast 3 13 201 136 261 210 150 261 621 0.10 217 Alma MIAA 6 8 209 239 150 228 246 149 623 0.10 218 Delaware Valley Freedom 5 9 203 184 178 216 227 180 623 0.10 219 Green Mountain North Atlantic 5 9 234 241 179 219 236 181 636 0.10 220 Immaculata CSAC 8 11 204 200 211 213 213 212 638 0.10 221 Keuka NEAC 6 9 199 230 175 224 240 174 638 0.10 222 Maritime Skyline 4 9 215 203 181 232 223 183 638 0.10 223 Lancaster Bible NEAC 8 9 236 260 163 231 247 162 640 0.10 224 Bard Liberty League 4 12 181 90 239 215 187 245 647 0.10 225 Hanover Ohio River 5 11 237 251 222 227 197 223 647 0.10 226 MCLA MASCAC 3 11 247 192 229 220 200 230 650 0.10 227 Hiram North Coast 3 13 221 153 249 217 184 250 651 0.10 228 Bryn Athyn NEAC 4 8 238 256 159 246 256 154 656 0.10 229 Thomas More Ohio River 3 11 239 228 232 233 194 232 659 0.10 230 Mitchell NECC 5 7 255 273 134 253 272 135 660 0.10 231 Sage Skyline 5 10 214 219 205 222 234 206 662 0.10 232 Keystone CSAC 4 7 250 261 139 254 271 141 666 0.10 233 Thomas North Atlantic 2 9 222 221 194 239 235 194 668 0.10 234 Loras Midwest 5 10 257 265 203 238 228 205 671 0.10 235 Saint Joseph Great Northeas 4 11 258 254 225 236 209 226 671 0.10 236 Mass. Maritime MASCAC 4 10 211 213 208 234 232 209 675 0.10 237 Puget Sound Northwest 2 12 223 148 254 244 177 254 675 0.10 238 LaGrange USA South Atl. 1 13 243 174 217 230 226 220 676 0.10 239 Ferrum USA South Atl. 6 10 224 209 207 221 248 208 677 0.10 240 Rhode Island Col Little East 4 10 232 186 209 223 244 210 677 0.10 241 Sweet Briar Old Dominion 1 7 266 222 128 273 273 131 677 0.10 242 Becker NECC 8 10 229 271 185 241 260 186 687 0.10 243 Linfield Northwest 0 15 252 149 271 256 163 270 689 0.10 244 Oglethorpe SAA 3 12 226 212 214 237 239 217 693 0.10 245 Elms NECC 7 10 248 270 192 245 262 190 697 0.10 246 Hood Commonwealth 4 13 188 138 257 235 204 259 698 0.10 247 Thiel Ohio River 0 11 253 202 245 255 212 231 698 0.10 248 Centenary CSAC 5 11 228 224 220 242 237 221 700 0.10 249 Southern Vermont NECC 7 11 246 266 215 229 254 218 701 0.10 250 Waynesburg Ohio River 2 11 249 257 234 248 219 236 703 0.10 251 Wells NEAC 4 11 235 229 227 247 231 228 706 0.10 252 Northwestern (MN Independent 2 13 260 232 253 243 218 247 708 0.10 253 Randolph Old Dominion 2 15 220 143 270 251 192 271 714 0.10 254 Cornell (IA) Midwest 1 14 268 249 263 240 214 263 717 0.10 255 Albertus Magnus Great Northeas 1 12 272 243 255 258 216 255 729 0.10 256 Gwynedd-Mercy CSAC 4 12 233 208 247 252 233 246 731 0.10 257 Maine Maritime North Atlantic 0 15 261 218 272 260 201 272 733 0.10 258 Wentworth Tech Comm. Coast 2 14 219 159 267 250 220 267 737 0.10 259 Notre Dame (MD) CSAC 3 10 231 234 212 263 267 214 744 0.10 260 Concordia-Chicag Midwest 0 17 270 258 273 266 210 273 749 0.10 261 Penn State-Abing NEAC 3 12 244 215 250 257 241 251 749 0.10 262 Johnson State North Atlantic 1 10 259 245 216 267 265 219 751 0.10 263 Trine MIAA 1 11 265 244 238 262 250 239 751 0.10 264 St. Elizabeth NEAC 1 14 267 250 268 264 225 268 757 0.10 265 Wilmington (OH) Ohio 2 14 240 195 262 249 249 262 760 0.10 266 Daniel Webster NECC 2 11 264 272 233 265 263 233 761 0.10 267 Olivet MIAA 0 11 271 236 242 268 259 243 770 0.10 268 Rosemont CSAC 3 12 254 248 251 261 257 252 770 0.10 269 Bay Path NECC 0 11 273 269 240 271 268 240 779 0.10 270 Hollins Old Dominion 0 14 251 142 264 259 258 264 781 0.10 271 Cedar Crest CSAC 0 14 269 238 269 270 251 269 790 0.10 272 Hilbert NEAC 0 12 263 237 256 272 261 258 791 0.10 273 Mount Saint Vinc Skyline 0 13 262 217 265 269 264 265 798 0.10