2016 NCAA Women's Division I
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 Maryland Big Ten 22 1 1 5 2 1 2 1 4 47.00 2 North Carolina Atlantic Coast 20 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 7 23.00 3 Syracuse Atlantic Coast 19 6 6 3 4 3 1 4 8 4.00 4 Florida Big East 18 2 4 13 5 4 6 5 15 7.00 5 Southern Califor MPSF 20 1 7 36 3 5 16 3 24 2.00 6 Penn State Big Ten 14 7 10 8 16 7 7 12 26 0.10 7 Cornell Ivy League 14 5 17 18 10 10 8 9 27 0.10 8 Penn Ivy League 15 5 14 15 14 8 12 7 27 0.10 9 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast 14 7 3 7 8 9 10 10 29 4.00 10 Northwestern Big Ten 11 10 8 1 13 11 4 18 33 4.00 11 Stanford MPSF 15 5 12 22 9 14 9 11 34 0.10 12 Stony Brook America East 17 4 5 24 7 13 19 8 40 5.00 13 Princeton Ivy League 11 6 20 10 21 12 15 15 42 1.00 14 Towson Colonial 16 4 21 30 15 6 23 13 42 1.00 15 Duke Atlantic Coast 11 9 9 6 23 17 5 23 45 0.10 16 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 20 2 15 51 6 15 33 6 54 0.10 17 Loyola Patriot League 14 6 27 31 19 16 25 16 57 1.00 18 Boston College Atlantic Coast 10 9 16 12 27 22 11 27 60 0.10 19 Louisville Atlantic Coast 12 6 13 11 12 18 28 17 63 0.10 20 Albany America East 11 6 11 29 18 21 21 22 64 1.00 21 Johns Hopkins Independent 11 8 18 16 32 20 17 31 68 0.10 22 Virginia Atlantic Coast 9 9 22 4 26 19 20 32 71 0.10 23 Winthrop Big South 20 3 44 90 11 25 35 14 74 0.10 24 Connecticut Big East 12 5 26 32 22 24 31 20 75 0.10 25 James Madison Colonial 10 10 24 17 48 23 14 41 78 0.10 26 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 13 5 32 85 24 30 29 24 83 0.10 27 Delaware Colonial 11 6 25 34 33 26 34 29 89 0.10 28 Colorado MPSF 13 5 19 45 17 27 45 19 91 0.10 29 Georgetown Big East 6 11 29 9 56 32 13 50 95 0.10 30 Elon Colonial 10 7 31 35 38 29 30 38 97 0.10 31 Temple Big East 13 6 23 38 28 28 41 28 97 0.10 32 Dartmouth Ivy League 7 8 38 20 39 36 26 39 101 0.10 33 Ohio State Big Ten 11 6 30 33 20 31 56 25 112 0.10 34 Harvard Ivy League 9 7 28 41 36 45 44 30 119 0.10 35 Michigan Big Ten 6 12 47 19 57 40 18 64 122 0.10 36 William & Mary Colonial 7 9 52 42 65 42 24 58 124 0.10 37 High Point Big South 13 6 39 78 34 38 55 35 128 0.10 38 Old Dominion Atlantic Sun 16 4 72 97 25 33 75 21 129 0.10 39 Denver MPSF 9 9 37 46 45 47 39 44 130 0.10 40 Canisius Metro Atlantic 13 7 33 58 37 35 61 37 133 0.10 41 Rutgers Big Ten 6 12 42 14 74 41 22 72 135 0.10 42 UMBC America East 9 8 46 49 43 48 40 47 135 0.10 43 Drexel Colonial 10 7 41 40 40 37 59 40 136 0.10 44 Lehigh Patriot League 13 5 45 60 30 34 83 26 143 0.10 45 Oregon MPSF 9 8 49 56 44 46 53 46 145 0.10 46 Navy Patriot League 13 6 36 54 35 39 72 36 147 0.10 47 UC Davis MPSF 7 8 70 53 50 50 48 52 150 0.10 48 Yale Ivy League 5 10 48 26 63 53 32 65 150 0.10 49 Boston Universit Patriot League 10 8 35 48 46 43 66 48 157 0.10 50 Coastal Carolina Big South 11 7 74 88 41 52 63 43 158 0.10 51 Virginia Tech Atlantic Coast 5 13 55 28 79 60 27 79 166 0.10 52 Wagner Northeast 10 9 62 75 54 56 58 54 168 0.10 53 Marquette Big East 7 10 34 27 52 58 51 60 169 0.10 54 Bryant Northeast 13 5 67 87 29 49 88 33 170 0.10 55 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 12 8 61 67 53 44 82 45 171 0.10 56 Furman Atlantic Sun 12 7 81 98 42 54 76 42 172 0.10 57 Vanderbilt Big East 5 11 40 25 76 63 37 76 176 0.10 58 Richmond Atlantic 10 9 10 54 71 73 62 46 71 179 0.10 59 Saint Joseph's Atlantic 10 9 10 64 61 67 64 50 67 181 0.10 60 San Diego State MPSF 4 11 73 43 75 70 36 75 181 0.10 61 George Mason Atlantic 10 12 5 50 81 31 51 100 34 185 0.10 62 Colgate Patriot League 8 9 53 59 69 61 62 63 186 0.10 63 Columbia Ivy League 6 9 43 37 60 55 74 57 186 0.10 64 Duquesne Atlantic 10 9 8 65 68 47 59 78 49 186 0.10 65 Campbell Big South 10 9 82 92 59 65 60 66 191 0.10 66 Marist Metro Atlantic 9 8 60 62 49 57 85 51 193 0.10 67 California MPSF 4 12 86 39 84 78 38 83 199 0.10 68 Brown Ivy League 6 9 56 47 64 67 77 56 200 0.10 69 Detroit Atlantic Sun 12 8 88 102 51 68 79 53 200 0.10 70 Bucknell Patriot League 10 8 59 77 55 66 81 55 202 0.10 71 New Hampshire America East 6 11 57 44 72 75 47 81 203 0.10 72 Davidson Atlantic 10 8 9 63 74 66 69 67 68 204 0.10 73 Villanova Big East 4 13 51 21 89 72 43 91 206 0.10 74 Binghamton America East 6 11 66 52 77 76 54 77 207 0.10 75 Hofstra Colonial 3 13 69 23 90 77 42 89 208 0.10 76 Fresno State MPSF 5 10 85 69 78 81 57 74 212 0.10 77 Niagara Metro Atlantic 9 9 77 76 61 73 87 61 221 0.10 78 Vermont America East 6 10 71 63 68 80 69 73 222 0.10 79 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 9 9 58 70 70 71 89 69 229 0.10 80 Iona Metro Atlantic 9 9 79 82 71 74 86 70 230 0.10 81 Liberty Big South 5 13 91 79 97 85 49 98 232 0.10 82 Longwood Big South 8 10 83 99 80 82 73 78 233 0.10 83 American Patriot League 5 12 76 57 91 79 68 90 237 0.10 84 Holy Cross Patriot League 3 14 84 50 104 88 52 104 244 0.10 85 Cincinnati Big East 4 13 75 55 93 84 65 96 245 0.10 86 Robert Morris Northeast 9 8 90 101 58 86 103 59 248 0.10 87 Lafayette Patriot League 6 11 68 66 87 83 80 86 249 0.10 88 Stetson Atlantic Sun 5 12 101 96 88 93 71 88 252 0.10 89 Sacred Heart Northeast 8 8 78 91 62 87 104 62 253 0.10 90 La Salle Atlantic 10 5 11 87 73 85 89 84 85 258 0.10 91 George Washingto Atlantic 10 4 13 89 72 99 90 70 99 259 0.10 92 Virginia Commonw Atlantic 10 3 14 97 83 107 94 64 107 265 0.10 93 Mercer Atlantic Sun 7 11 103 107 86 92 91 87 270 0.10 94 Siena Metro Atlantic 7 10 80 94 82 91 102 82 275 0.10 95 Kennesaw State Atlantic Sun 5 12 105 104 94 97 94 93 284 0.10 96 Central Michigan Atlantic Sun 6 10 102 108 83 96 105 84 285 0.10 97 Saint Francis Northeast 4 12 100 103 98 99 92 97 288 0.10 98 Army Patriot League 5 12 96 89 92 100 97 92 289 0.10 99 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 5 12 92 93 96 95 99 95 289 0.10 100 Gardner-Webb Big South 4 13 106 100 101 98 98 100 296 0.10 101 Delaware State Independent 2 9 110 111 81 110 111 80 301 0.10 102 Central Connecti Northeast 3 13 93 86 100 101 101 102 304 0.10 103 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 3 14 104 95 106 103 95 106 304 0.10 104 Massachusetts-Lo America East 1 16 99 65 111 105 90 111 306 0.10 105 St. Mary's (CA) MPSF 0 14 108 64 105 106 96 105 307 0.10 106 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 4 13 95 84 102 102 106 101 309 0.10 107 LIU Brooklyn Northeast 5 12 94 105 95 107 109 94 310 0.10 108 Presbyterian Big South 3 15 107 106 110 108 93 110 311 0.10 109 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 3 13 98 80 103 104 107 103 314 0.10 110 Radford Big South 1 14 109 109 108 109 108 108 325 0.10 111 Howard Atlantic Sun 0 14 111 110 109 111 110 109 330 0.10