2015 NCAA Women's Division III
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 Cortland SUNYAC 22 1 1 9 2 1 1 1 3 50.00 2 Trinity (CT) NESCAC 21 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 7 22.00 3 Franklin & Marsh Centennial 20 3 3 13 3 3 5 3 11 14.00 4 Middlebury NESCAC 16 4 5 4 4 4 4 6 14 2.00 5 Fredonia SUNYAC 17 4 21 18 12 8 2 11 21 0.10 6 Gettysburg Centennial 16 4 4 14 7 5 6 10 21 8.00 7 Catholic (DC) Landmark 16 4 6 29 9 6 9 8 23 1.00 8 Salisbury Capital 14 4 7 19 10 7 8 12 27 0.10 9 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 16 3 38 60 15 9 12 7 28 0.10 10 College of New J NJAC 18 4 11 42 6 13 11 5 29 1.00 11 York Capital 15 6 15 15 13 11 7 15 33 0.10 12 Bowdoin NESCAC 16 4 8 12 5 10 16 9 35 1.00 13 Sewanee SAA 17 2 101 158 20 15 23 16 54 0.10 14 Tufts NESCAC 12 7 10 3 16 17 10 32 59 0.10 15 Springfield NEWMAC 15 3 19 53 21 20 25 22 67 1.00 16 Hamilton NESCAC 12 6 16 5 14 22 21 28 71 0.10 17 MIT NEWMAC 17 3 34 81 18 21 32 18 71 0.10 18 Messiah Commonwealth 14 5 14 33 25 16 31 29 76 0.10 19 Western New Engl Comm. Coast 16 3 56 78 23 18 36 23 77 0.10 20 Augustana CCIW 19 2 54 151 11 14 51 13 78 0.10 21 St. John Fisher Empire Eight 14 6 23 24 39 27 15 40 82 0.10 22 Union Liberty League 13 4 20 22 28 19 42 26 87 0.10 23 Castleton State North Atlantic 17 3 94 150 22 30 40 19 89 0.10 24 St. Mary's (MD) Capital 13 5 32 48 36 24 34 31 89 0.10 25 Washington Colle Centennial 11 5 28 34 31 38 22 30 90 0.10 26 Brockport SUNYAC 10 7 12 11 49 41 14 44 99 0.10 27 Pomona-Pitzer SCIAC 15 4 31 43 33 23 44 33 100 0.10 28 Stevenson Commonwealth 12 7 26 28 45 26 26 52 104 0.10 29 Williams NESCAC 7 8 17 1 40 32 13 60 105 0.10 30 Amherst NESCAC 9 7 9 7 37 37 19 50 106 0.10 31 Roger Williams Comm. Coast 12 5 43 80 61 31 35 48 114 0.10 32 Carthage CCIW 12 6 144 159 82 33 37 56 126 0.10 33 Geneseo SUNYAC 14 3 18 30 24 35 75 17 127 0.10 34 Saint Joseph's ( Great Northeas 17 2 104 176 19 39 70 20 129 0.10 35 FDU-Florham Freedom 17 4 57 96 29 36 69 25 130 0.10 36 Rhodes SAA 15 2 92 171 17 40 77 14 131 0.10 37 Stevens Empire Eight 15 5 25 55 47 25 57 49 131 0.10 38 Dickinson Centennial 8 7 27 17 55 49 27 57 133 0.10 39 Colby NESCAC 10 6 13 16 30 42 56 39 137 0.10 40 Oberlin North Coast 11 6 82 111 93 29 28 82 139 0.10 41 Wooster North Coast 13 4 75 129 48 28 79 37 144 0.10 42 Mary Washington Capital 10 8 35 44 91 55 20 78 153 0.10 43 Denison North Coast 11 7 53 92 111 57 18 80 155 0.10 44 Ithaca Empire Eight 11 8 22 23 78 47 17 91 155 0.10 45 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 13 4 64 83 43 46 76 34 156 0.10 46 Nazareth Empire Eight 12 4 36 41 35 45 74 38 157 0.10 47 Pacific (OR) Northwest 14 2 116 163 26 44 99 24 167 0.10 48 Lasell Great Northeas 12 6 103 146 84 56 33 86 175 0.10 49 Johnson & Wales Great Northeas 13 3 125 174 34 53 89 35 177 0.10 50 Montclair State NJAC 10 6 29 46 60 54 52 74 180 0.10 51 Westfield State MASCAC 13 5 100 140 58 50 72 59 181 0.10 52 Rowan NJAC 10 7 46 56 87 62 46 75 183 0.10 53 Skidmore Liberty League 13 5 44 45 51 51 80 55 186 0.10 54 Haverford Centennial 11 8 41 25 66 61 49 81 191 0.10 55 Mount Union Ohio 19 1 52 139 8 12 178 4 194 0.10 56 Lebanon Valley Commonwealth 12 8 33 49 99 43 58 102 203 0.10 57 Albion MIAA 15 3 138 216 32 48 135 27 210 0.10 58 Wellesley NEWMAC 9 5 79 70 71 58 78 76 212 0.10 59 Wheaton NEWMAC 10 8 30 51 104 70 29 114 213 0.10 60 Bates NESCAC 7 8 24 10 56 72 43 100 215 0.10 61 Endicott Comm. Coast 11 6 74 71 59 64 85 68 217 0.10 62 Kenyon North Coast 9 5 96 123 74 59 88 70 217 0.10 63 McDaniel Centennial 10 8 49 36 100 63 53 103 219 0.10 64 Bridgewater Stat MASCAC 13 9 110 118 132 68 24 130 222 0.10 65 Plymouth State Little East 13 4 77 110 42 67 122 42 231 0.10 66 North Central CCIW 10 5 168 218 70 76 92 64 232 0.10 67 Piedmont USA South Atl. 14 2 97 190 27 66 147 21 234 0.10 68 Colorado College Independent 10 7 51 72 119 52 68 115 235 0.10 69 Puget Sound Northwest 10 4 129 168 53 71 112 53 236 0.10 70 Christopher Newp Capital 9 8 39 57 118 79 55 110 244 0.10 71 Occidental SCIAC 11 7 45 52 113 60 67 117 244 0.10 72 Emmanuel Great Northeas 12 4 123 185 46 69 136 47 252 0.10 73 Shenandoah Old Dominion 12 5 88 101 62 74 124 54 252 0.10 74 George Fox Northwest 11 5 119 170 65 86 102 69 257 0.10 75 St. Joseph's (NY Skyline 14 5 80 113 44 75 141 45 261 0.10 76 Susquehanna Landmark 8 8 61 63 114 91 60 113 264 0.10 77 Gordon Comm. Coast 11 8 108 102 134 77 64 127 268 0.10 78 Wittenberg North Coast 11 4 70 116 54 34 198 43 275 0.10 79 Worcester State MASCAC 13 6 127 172 81 84 114 84 282 0.10 80 Fitchburg State MASCAC 14 4 141 205 41 82 161 41 284 0.10 81 Wesleyan (CT) NESCAC 5 10 40 8 116 87 48 150 285 0.10 82 Muhlenberg Centennial 9 7 37 39 92 73 127 93 293 0.10 83 DePauw North Coast 7 9 130 130 175 89 54 151 294 0.10 84 Calvin MIAA 12 6 158 209 64 65 164 66 295 0.10 85 Emerson NEWMAC 8 6 73 77 96 85 116 97 298 0.10 86 Regis (MA) NECC 13 6 159 221 80 96 121 83 300 0.10 87 Arcadia Commonwealth 13 8 86 85 108 80 105 118 303 0.10 88 Vassar Liberty League 10 6 60 64 94 83 131 94 308 0.10 89 Chapman SCIAC 8 6 69 61 105 94 109 106 309 0.10 90 Cabrini CSAC 14 6 89 138 63 97 150 65 312 0.10 91 Utica Empire Eight 9 6 59 75 103 88 119 105 312 0.10 92 Mount Holyoke NEWMAC 6 10 84 58 168 92 41 182 315 0.10 93 Thiel Ohio River 11 7 170 212 115 108 108 99 315 0.10 94 Capital Ohio 10 4 121 201 52 106 171 46 323 0.10 95 Connecticut Coll NESCAC 4 11 55 6 133 111 38 175 324 0.10 96 Goucher Landmark 11 7 111 107 83 112 129 85 326 0.10 97 Lynchburg Old Dominion 9 8 71 84 145 109 98 121 328 0.10 98 Guilford Old Dominion 8 8 118 94 135 124 84 122 330 0.10 99 U. of New Englan Comm. Coast 7 10 98 76 170 99 47 185 331 0.10 100 Roanoke Old Dominion 7 5 72 86 67 105 157 71 333 0.10 101 Redlands SCIAC 10 8 50 62 137 90 107 137 334 0.10 102 Virginia Wesleya Old Dominion 10 9 105 106 158 113 73 148 334 0.10 103 Oneonta SUNYAC 7 11 42 20 153 120 45 170 335 0.10 104 Claremont-Mudd-S SCIAC 8 7 66 59 123 101 111 124 336 0.10 105 Allegheny North Coast 6 10 131 98 201 98 50 191 339 0.10 106 Keuka NEAC 12 3 143 213 38 102 202 36 340 0.10 107 Drew Landmark 9 7 93 93 109 107 125 111 343 0.10 108 Concordia-Wiscon Midwest 13 7 140 215 76 100 184 61 345 0.10 109 Swarthmore Centennial 7 9 78 50 138 114 95 138 347 0.10 110 Otterbein Ohio 8 7 164 164 128 123 113 112 348 0.10 111 Rochester Liberty League 9 8 62 54 129 122 91 135 348 0.10 112 Thomas North Atlantic 8 4 169 211 57 103 195 58 356 0.10 113 John Carroll Ohio 10 5 139 204 69 127 168 62 357 0.10 114 Southwestern Independent 7 9 145 148 180 95 83 179 357 0.10 115 Farmingdale Stat Skyline 10 7 65 109 117 117 123 120 360 0.10 116 Greensboro USA South Atl. 8 5 120 173 77 118 170 73 361 0.10 117 Baldwin Wallace Ohio 8 6 133 162 110 81 187 95 363 0.10 118 RIT Liberty League 7 9 63 47 154 116 93 163 372 0.10 119 Keene State Little East 7 12 112 73 216 119 30 228 377 0.10 120 Neumann CSAC 11 7 137 160 107 131 137 109 377 0.10 121 Meredith USA South Atl. 12 7 95 125 112 78 185 116 379 0.10 122 Millsaps SAA 9 5 166 178 79 104 212 63 379 0.10 123 Elmhurst CCIW 9 9 222 241 161 155 82 145 382 0.10 124 Colby-Sawyer North Atlantic 10 6 165 222 95 134 154 96 384 0.10 125 Augsburg Independent 7 8 202 217 148 146 100 140 386 0.10 126 Clarkson Liberty League 8 8 76 66 143 115 130 142 387 0.10 127 William Smith Liberty League 7 9 47 27 155 110 106 172 388 0.10 128 Husson North Atlantic 8 6 172 191 97 132 153 107 392 0.10 129 Oswego SUNYAC 6 10 68 37 162 148 96 161 405 0.10 130 Simmons Great Northeas 6 9 154 153 186 143 81 184 408 0.10 131 St. Lawrence Liberty League 4 11 67 31 202 142 62 204 408 0.10 132 Rensselaer Liberty League 6 8 48 26 120 133 142 134 409 0.10 133 Frostburg State Capital 9 8 90 88 125 93 194 126 413 0.10 134 Stockton NJAC 10 6 106 133 89 145 179 89 413 0.10 135 Morrisville NEAC 11 8 142 183 136 135 146 133 414 0.10 136 Canton Independent 10 5 102 143 68 126 218 72 416 0.10 137 Hartwick Empire Eight 6 8 128 74 149 140 126 152 418 0.10 138 Alvernia Commonwealth 7 8 117 90 140 125 151 144 420 0.10 139 Dubuque CCIW 9 7 203 243 73 121 232 67 420 0.10 140 Curry Comm. Coast 6 11 151 122 220 137 71 214 422 0.10 141 Illinois Wesleya CCIW 7 9 223 231 177 168 101 154 423 0.10 142 Lycoming Commonwealth 10 6 115 126 85 136 197 92 425 0.10 143 Nichols Comm. Coast 5 11 153 105 223 139 66 221 426 0.10 144 Buffalo State SUNYAC 4 13 83 21 224 154 39 236 429 0.10 145 Albright Commonwealth 9 8 87 99 131 129 165 136 430 0.10 146 Kalamazoo MIAA 6 8 196 210 151 159 128 147 434 0.10 147 Kean NJAC 7 10 109 95 182 160 94 181 435 0.10 148 Framingham State MASCAC 9 8 179 202 144 150 144 143 437 0.10 149 Western Connecti Little East 10 8 122 131 139 144 155 139 438 0.10 150 Ursinus Centennial 4 13 81 35 232 147 63 231 441 0.10 151 Potsdam SUNYAC 5 11 85 38 199 156 86 202 444 0.10 152 Southern Maine Little East 7 12 135 103 219 161 59 227 447 0.10 153 Washington & Jef Ohio River 9 5 198 244 75 153 215 79 447 0.10 154 Saint Vincent Ohio River 12 7 180 230 88 128 233 88 449 0.10 155 Salve Regina Comm. Coast 6 9 146 108 184 151 134 178 463 0.10 156 Ferrum USA South Atl. 8 8 157 157 124 162 180 125 467 0.10 157 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 4 12 155 128 247 164 61 242 467 0.10 158 Bridgewater Old Dominion 7 9 107 121 173 169 145 156 470 0.10 159 Scranton Landmark 6 10 91 67 185 163 120 189 472 0.10 160 Beloit Midwest 9 8 206 253 141 176 156 141 473 0.10 161 Centre SAA 6 10 149 137 205 130 143 200 473 0.10 162 Ramapo NJAC 5 9 167 120 178 173 138 162 473 0.10 163 Berry SAA 9 7 177 198 122 152 205 119 476 0.10 164 Olivet MIAA 9 7 201 235 102 149 223 104 476 0.10 165 Misericordia Freedom 9 10 126 115 190 138 148 193 479 0.10 166 Mount St. Joseph Ohio River 8 7 210 238 127 177 176 129 482 0.10 167 New Paltz SUNYAC 3 11 99 32 207 182 97 207 486 0.10 168 Purchase Skyline 11 4 162 232 50 184 251 51 486 0.10 169 Aurora Midwest 11 7 204 255 90 141 256 90 487 0.10 170 Babson NEWMAC 5 11 58 40 208 167 103 218 488 0.10 171 Norwich Great Northeas 5 8 187 188 157 171 159 158 488 0.10 172 Alma MIAA 5 11 191 182 204 158 132 199 489 0.10 173 Widener Commonwealth 6 9 114 82 171 157 152 180 489 0.10 174 Immaculata CSAC 10 6 163 200 98 175 217 98 490 0.10 175 Methodist USA South Atl. 10 5 156 199 86 170 234 87 491 0.10 176 Marymount Capital 4 11 113 68 210 174 110 209 493 0.10 177 Whitman Northwest 2 6 175 156 130 179 189 131 499 0.10 178 Wilkes Freedom 10 5 124 184 72 181 241 77 499 0.10 179 Hope MIAA 6 9 195 195 150 166 181 153 500 0.10 180 Mount Ida Great Northeas 5 11 192 166 228 180 104 225 509 0.10 181 Rivier Great Northeas 4 13 215 180 254 190 65 254 509 0.10 182 Salem State MASCAC 7 9 190 175 179 165 167 177 509 0.10 183 King's Freedom 8 7 150 149 126 172 216 128 516 0.10 184 SUNY Poly NEAC 9 7 161 228 121 185 209 123 517 0.10 185 Birmingham-South SAA 4 8 205 177 142 187 220 132 539 0.10 186 Elmira Empire Eight 2 14 132 65 264 192 87 262 541 0.10 187 Houghton Empire Eight 5 10 148 104 206 189 149 206 544 0.10 188 Medaille NEAC 8 6 194 237 106 199 243 108 550 0.10 189 Transylvania Ohio River 7 9 216 242 181 195 191 165 551 0.10 190 Eastern Connecti Little East 4 12 147 117 242 193 115 244 552 0.10 191 Wesley Capital 6 10 181 112 187 194 172 186 552 0.10 192 Smith NEWMAC 3 11 171 89 231 198 133 226 557 0.10 193 St. Mary's (IN) MIAA 7 10 226 240 200 191 169 203 563 0.10 194 Mount Saint Mary Skyline 7 10 160 142 198 186 177 201 564 0.10 195 Becker NECC 9 9 214 249 160 197 208 160 565 0.10 196 Marywood CSAC 8 9 173 186 167 196 201 169 566 0.10 197 Adrian MIAA 0 12 235 152 251 205 117 249 571 0.10 198 Wentworth Tech Comm. Coast 4 10 197 144 194 178 203 190 571 0.10 199 Elizabethtown Landmark 5 9 152 135 165 202 204 167 573 0.10 200 Sweet Briar Old Dominion 5 12 182 134 245 204 139 234 577 0.10 201 Alfred Empire Eight 1 11 183 79 238 200 140 240 580 0.10 202 Hendrix SAA 4 10 200 187 197 188 207 187 582 0.10 203 Whittier SCIAC 2 14 134 69 266 206 118 267 591 0.10 204 Maine-Farmington North Atlantic 5 8 199 234 156 209 226 157 592 0.10 205 Dallas Independent 4 7 234 264 101 227 268 101 596 0.10 206 Wheelock NECC 8 8 220 259 147 212 235 149 596 0.10 207 Linfield Northwest 0 16 239 155 270 240 90 270 600 0.10 208 MCLA MASCAC 4 9 237 220 189 208 200 192 600 0.10 209 Cazenovia NEAC 7 9 193 229 174 215 222 174 611 0.10 210 Mass. Maritime MASCAC 5 9 208 226 188 210 214 188 612 0.10 211 Saint Joseph Great Northeas 4 8 221 223 163 218 231 164 613 0.10 212 Randolph Old Dominion 3 12 188 124 248 211 160 243 614 0.10 213 Old Westbury Skyline 6 9 178 167 183 213 219 183 615 0.10 214 Eastern Freedom 6 12 136 97 235 183 196 237 616 0.10 215 Manhattanville Freedom 4 11 189 136 222 207 190 220 617 0.10 216 Franklin Ohio River 3 8 242 252 146 222 250 146 618 0.10 217 LaGrange USA South Atl. 2 13 243 196 221 225 174 219 618 0.10 218 Notre Dame (MD) CSAC 6 8 219 219 152 224 242 155 621 0.10 219 Coast Guard NEWMAC 4 11 176 114 225 220 188 222 630 0.10 220 Hood Commonwealth 4 12 186 132 240 203 183 246 632 0.10 221 Rutgers-Camden NJAC 1 13 184 91 256 214 162 258 634 0.10 222 Hiram North Coast 4 11 230 154 209 201 227 208 636 0.10 223 Bryn Mawr Centennial 4 13 212 119 234 238 166 235 639 0.10 224 Franciscan Independent 3 10 233 224 166 217 257 168 642 0.10 225 Waynesburg Ohio River 5 8 251 262 159 234 249 159 642 0.10 226 Gwynedd-Mercy CSAC 8 10 207 208 196 219 230 198 647 0.10 227 Trine MIAA 4 8 245 248 169 230 252 171 653 0.10 228 New England Coll North Atlantic 4 13 211 194 253 226 175 253 654 0.10 229 Mass.-Dartmouth Little East 2 14 185 147 265 231 158 266 655 0.10 230 Illinois Tech Midwest 5 11 263 266 226 229 206 223 658 0.10 231 Oglethorpe SAA 1 13 227 179 241 233 193 233 659 0.10 232 Wells NEAC 4 9 231 225 193 235 228 196 659 0.10 233 Elms NECC 7 10 236 251 176 223 269 176 668 0.10 234 Penn State-Abing NEAC 4 9 244 214 191 236 240 194 670 0.10 235 Bryn Athyn NEAC 3 8 238 247 164 245 260 166 671 0.10 236 Rosemont CSAC 4 10 217 206 211 237 224 210 671 0.10 237 Albertus Magnus Great Northeas 1 14 250 197 267 242 163 268 673 0.10 238 Muskingum Ohio 0 12 257 193 252 241 182 252 675 0.10 239 Wartburg Midwest 4 12 255 260 192 221 259 195 675 0.10 240 Maine Maritime North Atlantic 2 10 254 207 217 239 221 216 676 0.10 241 Bard Liberty League 2 13 174 87 255 228 199 255 682 0.10 242 Huntingdon USA South Atl. 1 14 218 165 259 216 211 257 684 0.10 243 Carroll CCIW 0 14 267 245 268 253 173 265 691 0.10 244 Hollins Old Dominion 0 13 246 127 261 249 186 256 691 0.10 245 Loras Midwest 4 12 259 261 229 244 225 229 698 0.10 246 Delaware Valley Freedom 2 10 209 161 215 246 238 215 699 0.10 247 Maritime Skyline 3 10 228 189 214 248 239 213 700 0.10 248 Rhode Island Col Little East 0 13 229 141 262 250 192 263 705 0.10 249 Johnson State North Atlantic 3 10 249 246 213 247 247 212 706 0.10 250 Bay Path NECC 2 8 266 270 172 267 270 173 710 0.10 251 Southern Vermont NECC 4 10 265 267 212 252 248 211 711 0.10 252 Mount Saint Vinc Skyline 2 10 224 169 218 251 245 217 713 0.10 253 Centenary CSAC 3 9 240 233 195 257 263 197 717 0.10 254 Merchant Marine Landmark 1 11 225 145 230 258 229 230 717 0.10 255 Southern Virgini Capital 0 15 213 100 263 243 210 264 717 0.10 256 Sage Skyline 2 11 232 181 237 254 237 239 730 0.10 257 Hanover Ohio River 3 11 256 257 233 255 244 232 731 0.10 258 Thomas More Ohio River 1 9 264 265 203 262 265 205 732 0.10 259 Benedictine Midwest 4 13 258 258 246 232 255 250 737 0.10 260 Defiance Ohio River 2 15 260 256 269 260 213 269 742 0.10 261 Keystone CSAC 0 10 262 203 227 264 261 224 749 0.10 262 Green Mountain North Atlantic 2 11 247 254 236 263 254 238 755 0.10 263 Cedar Crest CSAC 1 13 248 227 257 266 236 259 761 0.10 264 Wilmington (OH) Ohio 3 13 252 236 249 256 258 248 762 0.10 265 Hilbert NEAC 0 11 241 192 243 265 253 245 763 0.10 266 Lancaster Bible NEAC 2 13 253 239 250 261 262 251 774 0.10 267 St. Elizabeth NEAC 1 13 270 250 260 268 246 261 775 0.10 268 Daniel Webster NECC 1 11 269 268 239 269 266 241 776 0.10 269 Cornell (IA) Midwest 1 14 261 263 258 259 264 260 783 0.10 270 Mitchell NECC 0 11 268 269 244 270 267 247 784 0.10