2014 NCAA Women's Division III
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 Salisbury Capital 23 1 5 15 2 1 1 1 3 6.00 2 Trinity (CT) NESCAC 19 3 4 3 1 3 2 3 8 8.00 3 Cortland SUNYAC 22 1 1 13 4 2 9 2 13 43.00 4 College of New J NJAC 19 2 7 44 6 5 5 5 15 3.00 5 Amherst NESCAC 19 3 2 6 3 6 7 4 17 17.00 6 Franklin & Marsh Centennial 17 6 10 12 12 7 3 8 18 0.10 7 Gettysburg Centennial 18 3 6 14 5 4 14 6 24 6.00 8 York Capital 15 5 18 16 17 10 4 16 30 0.10 9 Geneseo SUNYAC 17 3 13 17 11 8 17 10 35 1.00 10 Middlebury NESCAC 12 6 3 2 9 12 11 17 40 11.00 11 Augustana Midwest 19 1 77 171 8 15 20 7 42 0.10 12 Colby NESCAC 11 7 8 1 10 13 6 23 42 2.00 13 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 17 3 28 52 14 16 23 9 48 0.10 14 Redlands SCIAC 14 5 47 60 44 9 10 39 58 0.10 15 Williams NESCAC 14 5 11 8 7 14 24 20 58 1.00 16 Denison North Coast 13 5 63 103 58 11 8 46 65 0.10 17 Tufts NESCAC 10 6 15 7 16 21 18 34 73 0.10 18 Pomona-Pitzer SCIAC 16 5 73 107 51 23 32 19 74 0.10 19 Catholic (DC) Landmark 12 6 29 45 33 39 13 24 76 0.10 20 Stevenson Commonwealth 13 6 22 36 47 20 15 42 77 0.10 21 Wittenberg North Coast 14 3 54 114 31 17 46 21 84 0.10 22 Rowan NJAC 13 5 24 54 38 18 26 41 85 0.10 23 Mount Union Ohio 16 3 70 155 22 31 39 18 88 0.10 24 Oneonta SUNYAC 12 7 31 22 50 27 12 51 90 0.10 25 Fredonia SUNYAC 12 7 33 20 46 29 16 49 94 0.10 26 Occidental SCIAC 12 5 74 80 54 19 53 31 103 0.10 27 Farmingdale Stat Skyline 18 2 61 116 13 22 71 11 104 0.10 28 St. John Fisher Empire Eight 15 5 16 37 30 30 45 29 104 0.10 29 Sewanee SAA 13 6 108 149 75 33 21 54 108 0.10 30 Adrian MIAA 12 6 113 148 76 43 19 55 117 0.10 31 Mary Washington Capital 13 5 23 46 40 36 51 30 117 0.10 32 Endicott Comm. Coast 14 4 41 50 21 24 57 37 118 0.10 33 Messiah Commonwealth 11 7 25 39 68 47 25 47 119 0.10 34 Washington Colle Centennial 11 5 19 23 39 26 58 36 120 0.10 35 Montclair State NJAC 15 2 34 81 19 25 83 13 121 0.10 36 Allegheny North Coast 15 2 85 137 20 32 76 14 122 0.10 37 Bowdoin NESCAC 8 7 9 9 24 38 28 56 122 2.00 38 Rensselaer Liberty League 13 5 20 24 35 42 43 40 125 0.10 39 Brockport SUNYAC 10 7 27 18 70 34 27 68 129 0.10 40 Ithaca Empire Eight 12 6 17 25 37 45 48 38 131 0.10 41 Western New Engl Comm. Coast 17 1 52 126 15 28 95 12 135 0.10 42 Wheaton NEWMAC 14 7 44 38 42 41 31 63 135 0.10 43 Bates NESCAC 8 8 12 10 36 46 22 71 139 0.10 44 Cabrini CSAC 14 6 68 104 53 57 42 45 144 0.10 45 Lebanon Valley Commonwealth 16 4 35 62 34 37 81 26 144 0.10 46 Christopher Newp Capital 10 8 42 41 88 61 33 72 166 0.10 47 Guilford Old Dominion 12 7 58 69 99 52 38 78 168 0.10 48 Arcadia Freedom 18 2 55 129 18 44 116 15 175 0.10 49 St. Joseph's (NY Skyline 15 6 76 105 66 50 66 62 178 0.10 50 Bridgewater Stat MASCAC 14 6 69 124 57 60 54 65 179 0.10 51 Carthage Midwest 11 7 141 182 102 74 30 75 179 0.10 52 McDaniel Centennial 11 9 37 33 89 53 40 87 180 0.10 53 Susquehanna Landmark 12 6 50 53 69 49 61 70 180 0.10 54 Gordon Comm. Coast 12 5 84 112 63 51 69 66 186 0.10 55 Haverford Centennial 8 8 36 28 100 55 41 91 187 0.10 56 Ursinus Centennial 8 8 57 29 97 59 36 93 188 0.10 57 Oswego SUNYAC 11 6 46 48 64 54 80 60 194 0.10 58 Piedmont USA South Atl. 14 3 102 189 28 64 102 32 198 0.10 59 Colorado College Independent 13 6 71 123 43 40 118 43 201 0.10 60 Roger Williams Comm. Coast 11 8 56 73 123 56 29 122 207 0.10 61 Plymouth State Little East 12 5 48 90 55 48 103 57 208 0.10 62 Union Liberty League 10 7 32 21 61 66 65 80 211 0.10 63 Kean NJAC 9 8 95 95 106 80 34 98 212 0.10 64 Muhlenberg Centennial 10 7 38 49 80 63 68 84 215 0.10 65 Dickinson Centennial 9 8 40 32 98 65 63 90 218 0.10 66 Emmanuel Great Northeas 15 3 137 203 26 68 127 28 223 0.10 67 Hamilton NESCAC 6 8 14 4 48 73 56 96 225 0.10 68 Keuka NEAC 16 3 107 195 23 77 136 25 238 0.10 69 Buffalo State SUNYAC 8 7 67 51 86 78 74 88 240 0.10 70 Springfield NEWMAC 8 9 30 34 109 85 49 108 242 0.10 71 Kenyon North Coast 9 6 125 142 92 76 85 82 243 0.10 72 Otterbein Ohio 12 5 139 212 65 79 97 67 243 0.10 73 Castleton State North Atlantic 9 7 109 121 87 92 64 89 245 0.10 74 Western Connecti Little East 8 7 106 82 111 70 70 105 245 0.10 75 U. of New Englan Comm. Coast 9 8 94 63 110 67 55 126 248 0.10 76 Wooster North Coast 5 8 117 110 151 71 47 136 254 0.10 77 Roanoke Old Dominion 10 8 53 65 108 83 67 107 257 0.10 78 Centre SAA 16 3 114 165 27 35 203 22 260 0.10 79 North Central Midwest 9 6 142 193 93 88 98 76 262 0.10 80 William Smith Liberty League 8 8 39 19 94 81 73 109 263 0.10 81 St. Mary's (MD) Capital 8 9 45 43 135 82 59 123 264 0.10 82 Shenandoah Old Dominion 11 7 64 68 104 86 87 102 275 0.10 83 Neumann CSAC 12 6 105 134 71 94 113 69 276 0.10 84 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 8 9 140 136 165 89 44 144 277 0.10 85 Marymount Capital 8 8 79 57 118 105 77 106 288 0.10 86 Drew Landmark 11 7 78 98 103 99 88 103 290 0.10 87 Chapman SCIAC 6 11 110 74 211 75 35 182 292 0.10 88 Wesleyan (CT) NESCAC 5 10 21 11 85 109 50 142 301 0.10 89 New Paltz SUNYAC 3 9 96 26 157 90 60 152 302 0.10 90 Wilkes Freedom 13 3 86 158 32 95 173 35 303 0.10 91 Connecticut Coll NESCAC 5 10 26 5 78 103 62 139 304 0.10 92 MIT NEWMAC 12 6 91 108 79 87 140 83 310 0.10 93 Berry SAA 9 7 156 170 112 102 100 110 312 0.10 94 FDU-Florham Freedom 7 10 97 75 178 101 37 176 314 0.10 95 Nazareth Empire Eight 8 8 51 40 107 104 94 116 314 0.10 96 Keene State Little East 13 5 80 100 56 58 198 59 315 0.10 97 Meredith USA South Atl. 14 4 111 154 49 72 195 50 317 0.10 98 Saint Joseph's ( Great Northeas 12 8 153 169 116 97 104 117 318 0.10 99 Swarthmore Centennial 7 9 75 47 136 91 92 135 318 0.10 100 Curry Comm. Coast 11 9 83 128 144 100 75 147 322 0.10 101 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 10 8 66 76 129 98 105 119 322 0.10 102 Vassar Liberty League 11 5 43 56 45 62 214 48 324 0.10 103 Worcester State MASCAC 13 5 130 160 62 111 152 64 327 0.10 104 Oberlin North Coast 8 5 123 156 81 84 175 73 332 0.10 105 Pacific (OR) Independent 8 7 152 157 120 93 129 113 335 0.10 106 Richard Stockton NJAC 10 5 126 152 60 125 163 53 341 0.10 107 Claremont-Mudd-S SCIAC 9 9 112 120 153 106 119 118 343 0.10 108 Thiel Independent 9 8 158 183 137 129 84 130 343 0.10 109 Albright Commonwealth 8 9 90 78 141 96 112 138 346 0.10 110 Greensboro USA South Atl. 9 7 121 153 113 117 121 111 349 0.10 111 Whittier SCIAC 6 10 128 106 192 107 96 155 358 0.10 112 Stevens Empire Eight 7 10 62 55 167 110 72 177 359 0.10 113 Regis (MA) NECC 14 3 160 239 29 108 219 33 360 0.10 114 Canton Independent 9 5 103 146 72 116 171 74 361 0.10 115 Utica Empire Eight 10 6 82 91 82 112 155 94 361 0.10 116 Baldwin Wallace Ohio 14 4 129 209 52 69 242 52 363 0.10 117 Norwich Great Northeas 8 5 149 201 74 121 164 79 364 0.10 118 Lasell Great Northeas 9 8 136 164 133 118 114 133 365 0.10 119 Puget Sound Independent 8 9 148 167 140 115 117 141 373 0.10 120 Concordia-Wiscon Midwest 11 6 150 230 67 123 193 58 374 0.10 121 Saint Vincent Independent 11 3 135 213 41 114 218 44 376 0.10 122 Southern Maine Little East 8 9 99 87 124 119 107 153 379 0.10 123 Morrisville NEAC 12 7 134 176 101 133 147 101 381 0.10 124 Marywood CSAC 9 9 133 130 156 135 89 158 382 0.10 125 Alvernia Commonwealth 9 9 89 84 152 113 120 150 383 0.10 126 Ferrum USA South Atl. 11 6 127 163 83 138 161 85 384 0.10 127 Lynchburg Old Dominion 7 9 81 83 171 126 91 167 384 0.10 128 Nichols Comm. Coast 7 8 143 133 142 137 115 143 395 0.10 129 DePauw North Coast 3 10 157 118 203 132 79 185 396 0.10 130 Misericordia Freedom 7 9 120 99 164 128 101 171 400 0.10 131 St. Lawrence Liberty League 6 9 60 35 148 130 111 162 403 0.10 132 Emerson NEWMAC 8 7 92 113 117 136 154 114 404 0.10 133 Mount Holyoke NEWMAC 8 8 88 88 139 131 135 140 406 0.10 134 Rivier Great Northeas 9 9 161 198 158 139 108 160 407 0.10 135 Immaculata CSAC 9 8 151 159 132 143 139 129 411 0.10 136 Babson NEWMAC 6 11 49 27 176 122 90 203 415 0.10 137 Beloit Midwest 10 7 210 243 105 157 158 100 415 0.10 138 Potsdam SUNYAC 4 11 87 42 197 134 93 196 423 0.10 139 Scranton Landmark 6 10 104 77 190 144 86 197 427 0.10 140 Rhodes SAA 8 4 164 241 59 145 225 61 431 0.10 141 Alma MIAA 13 6 165 222 77 124 228 81 433 0.10 142 Eastern Freedom 6 10 145 101 182 149 109 175 433 0.10 143 Simmons Great Northeas 7 7 162 200 121 159 156 120 435 0.10 144 RIT Liberty League 5 10 72 31 174 146 110 181 437 0.10 145 Goucher Landmark 7 9 116 96 170 141 133 164 438 0.10 146 Frostburg State Capital 4 12 119 58 222 151 78 212 441 0.10 147 Thomas North Atlantic 8 6 144 178 96 155 187 99 441 0.10 148 Capital Ohio 10 5 155 228 73 120 245 77 442 0.10 149 George Fox Independent 6 6 173 205 84 152 204 86 442 0.10 150 Ramapo NJAC 4 9 163 102 173 161 124 159 444 0.10 151 Calvin MIAA 10 6 179 232 95 140 209 97 446 0.10 152 Mount Saint Mary Skyline 8 7 118 139 119 142 189 115 446 0.10 153 Birmingham-South SAA 9 7 170 187 91 127 226 95 448 0.10 154 Westfield State MASCAC 9 9 132 141 160 148 137 163 448 0.10 155 Mount St. Joseph Midwest 9 7 183 245 115 167 179 104 450 0.10 156 Rutgers-Camden NJAC 5 11 172 127 207 168 82 202 452 0.10 157 Albion MIAA 8 8 177 215 138 160 157 137 454 0.10 158 Rochester Liberty League 6 8 65 59 134 158 167 134 459 0.10 159 Wellesley NEWMAC 6 9 93 61 169 147 144 170 461 0.10 160 Wesley Capital 5 9 147 109 149 172 146 146 464 0.10 161 Widener Commonwealth 4 11 101 66 224 150 99 220 469 0.10 162 Medaille NEAC 9 7 202 206 114 174 185 112 471 0.10 163 Virginia Wesleya Old Dominion 6 10 124 92 191 154 131 191 476 0.10 164 Skidmore Liberty League 6 10 59 30 166 153 149 183 485 0.10 165 Salve Regina Comm. Coast 5 11 138 122 218 162 106 218 486 0.10 166 Manhattanville Freedom 1 15 192 93 254 180 52 255 487 0.10 167 Johnson & Wales Great Northeas 8 9 186 210 162 171 151 166 488 0.10 168 Mount Saint Vinc Skyline 5 9 174 132 180 165 143 180 488 0.10 169 Bryn Mawr Centennial 6 11 182 115 183 182 123 184 489 0.10 170 Rhode Island Col Little East 7 8 166 151 143 166 181 145 492 0.10 171 Transylvania Independent 7 7 189 221 126 173 196 125 494 0.10 172 Bridgewater Old Dominion 6 11 100 86 210 163 126 209 498 0.10 173 Hope MIAA 6 7 212 235 122 178 199 121 498 0.10 174 Hartwick Empire Eight 6 10 115 79 184 156 150 194 500 0.10 175 Franciscan Independent 2 12 231 216 187 194 122 188 504 0.10 176 Cazenovia NEAC 9 8 205 225 131 188 190 132 510 0.10 177 Lycoming Commonwealth 5 11 131 111 217 169 130 213 512 0.10 178 Elmira Empire Eight 6 11 122 67 204 164 138 211 513 0.10 179 Purchase Skyline 5 5 200 186 90 181 243 92 516 0.10 180 Southwestern Independent 7 9 201 185 175 170 174 173 517 0.10 181 Millsaps SAA 3 8 197 192 163 177 178 168 523 0.10 182 Maritime Skyline 5 8 208 174 147 185 188 151 524 0.10 183 SUNYIT NEAC 6 7 191 231 125 191 210 124 525 0.10 184 Kalamazoo MIAA 5 10 216 208 195 192 153 190 535 0.10 185 Clarkson Liberty League 5 12 98 64 231 176 128 235 539 0.10 186 Fitchburg State MASCAC 9 9 176 199 155 183 205 157 545 0.10 187 Gwynedd-Mercy CSAC 7 10 203 161 188 187 172 189 548 0.10 188 Houghton Empire Eight 4 11 159 97 212 179 145 224 548 0.10 189 Maine-Farmington North Atlantic 5 9 204 180 179 193 176 179 548 0.10 190 Becker NECC 9 8 184 247 130 196 224 131 551 0.10 191 Huntingdon USA South Atl. 6 9 171 188 145 175 227 149 551 0.10 192 Hiram North Coast 3 13 221 150 239 186 134 233 553 0.10 193 Augsburg Independent 6 7 224 249 127 197 238 127 562 0.10 194 Wentworth Tech Comm. Coast 3 12 209 140 241 189 132 241 562 0.10 195 Eastern Connecti Little East 3 13 146 72 242 184 141 245 570 0.10 196 Alfred Empire Eight 1 11 169 71 225 199 142 232 573 0.10 197 Dallas Independent 5 9 239 248 154 210 215 156 581 0.10 198 Mount Ida Great Northeas 6 11 194 204 214 201 166 215 582 0.10 199 Washington & Jef Independent 0 10 220 144 219 203 160 219 582 0.10 200 Sage Skyline 4 8 207 177 159 207 222 161 590 0.10 201 Salem State MASCAC 4 11 181 166 223 202 165 225 592 0.10 202 Hood Commonwealth 5 8 199 143 146 216 230 148 594 0.10 203 Elizabethtown Landmark 1 14 187 70 252 217 125 253 595 0.10 204 Hendrix SAA 4 10 226 217 201 214 180 204 598 0.10 205 Saint Joseph Great Northeas 4 10 198 194 202 198 208 205 611 0.10 206 Benedictine Midwest 4 11 229 242 200 218 202 193 613 0.10 207 Framingham State MASCAC 2 14 218 175 250 219 148 250 617 0.10 208 Southern Virgini Capital 1 12 190 94 233 229 162 228 619 0.10 209 Hilbert Independent 3 8 233 238 161 222 234 165 621 0.10 210 Smith NEWMAC 2 14 167 85 251 213 159 252 624 0.10 211 Bryn Athyn Independent 5 7 217 252 128 244 253 128 625 0.10 212 King's Freedom 3 10 175 131 206 212 207 207 626 0.10 213 Linfield Independent 3 13 222 179 240 204 184 240 628 0.10 214 LaGrange USA South Atl. 4 11 236 218 185 211 232 186 629 0.10 215 Mass.-Dartmouth Little East 4 12 180 135 236 215 177 237 629 0.10 216 Sweet Briar Old Dominion 3 12 178 117 227 206 197 226 629 0.10 217 Methodist USA South Atl. 5 12 193 197 196 195 236 200 631 0.10 218 Dubuque Midwest 4 11 237 244 181 208 251 174 633 0.10 219 Olivet MIAA 3 12 228 211 226 205 201 227 633 0.10 220 Waynesburg Independent 3 9 232 223 168 231 233 169 633 0.10 221 Wheelock NECC 5 8 206 236 150 224 255 154 633 0.10 222 Old Westbury Skyline 3 13 188 145 246 220 170 246 636 0.10 223 Colby-Sawyer North Atlantic 4 13 185 172 245 226 168 244 638 0.10 224 Aurora Midwest 4 11 219 227 199 200 247 192 639 0.10 225 Rosemont CSAC 5 10 213 207 198 225 217 201 643 0.10 226 No. Carolina Wes USA South Atl. 1 10 242 196 189 233 216 195 644 0.10 227 Centenary CSAC 4 11 211 173 220 230 194 221 645 0.10 228 Bard Liberty League 3 12 154 89 235 221 186 239 646 0.10 229 Husson North Atlantic 3 10 196 162 205 228 212 206 646 0.10 230 New England Coll North Atlantic 5 13 195 147 243 223 182 242 647 0.10 231 Penn State-Abing NEAC 4 12 227 202 237 227 183 238 648 0.10 232 Oglethorpe SAA 0 16 235 168 253 209 192 251 652 0.10 233 Defiance Independent 2 14 246 233 247 238 169 247 654 0.10 234 Randolph Old Dominion 5 12 168 125 238 190 239 234 663 0.10 235 Mass. Maritime MASCAC 3 9 223 226 186 240 237 187 664 0.10 236 Wells NEAC 3 10 230 224 208 237 220 208 665 0.10 237 Agnes Scott USA South Atl. 0 9 245 190 193 245 229 198 672 0.10 238 Hollins Old Dominion 1 11 234 119 232 243 206 229 678 0.10 239 Mitchell NECC 2 8 255 256 172 255 256 172 683 0.10 240 Trine MIAA 1 11 243 229 215 236 231 216 683 0.10 241 Bay Path NECC 0 8 256 255 177 257 252 178 687 0.10 242 Merchant Marine Landmark 1 10 215 138 213 242 235 214 691 0.10 243 Green Mountain North Atlantic 0 9 241 181 194 252 241 199 692 0.10 244 Notre Dame (MD) CSAC 2 11 214 191 229 239 223 230 692 0.10 245 Albertus Magnus Great Northeas 1 10 251 220 209 241 244 210 695 0.10 246 Cedar Crest CSAC 0 15 240 184 257 249 191 257 697 0.10 247 Anna Maria Great Northeas 0 13 253 214 249 250 200 249 699 0.10 248 Wilmington (OH) Ohio 0 14 247 219 244 235 221 243 699 0.10 249 Fontbonne Midwest 2 12 250 237 228 232 246 223 701 0.10 250 St. Mary's (IN) MIAA 2 13 244 246 248 247 213 248 708 0.10 251 Illinois Tech Independent 0 12 254 253 216 254 248 217 719 0.10 252 Lancaster Bible NEAC 1 15 249 234 256 253 211 256 720 0.10 253 St. Elizabeth NEAC 2 11 238 250 230 251 240 231 722 0.10 254 Elms NECC 4 11 225 254 221 248 254 222 724 0.10 255 Loras Midwest 3 16 248 240 255 234 250 254 738 0.10 256 Wilson NEAC 0 11 252 251 234 256 249 236 741 0.10 257 Daniel Webster NECC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.10