2012 NCAA Women's Division III
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 Trinity (CT) NESCAC 21 1 3 2 1 2 2 1 5 10.00 2 Salisbury Capital 22 1 1 14 2 1 4 2 7 43.00 3 Cortland SUNYAC 20 2 2 11 3 3 3 3 9 14.00 4 Catholic (DC) Landmark 16 6 13 16 17 7 1 9 17 0.10 5 Middlebury NESCAC 15 5 4 3 5 5 5 8 18 15.00 6 Franklin & Marsh Centennial 13 3 10 12 9 6 6 7 19 0.10 7 College of New J Independent 16 4 7 26 8 9 7 6 22 3.00 8 Gettysburg Centennial 19 2 5 17 6 4 14 4 22 6.00 9 Colby NESCAC 15 3 8 9 4 8 15 5 28 3.00 10 Amherst NESCAC 13 5 6 4 7 10 11 10 31 1.00 11 Mary Washington Capital 14 5 23 32 15 12 8 17 37 0.10 12 Messiah Commonwealth 16 4 15 38 16 11 17 16 44 0.10 13 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 15 5 32 53 22 20 12 15 47 0.10 14 York Capital 14 5 18 39 24 22 10 18 50 0.10 15 Redlands SCIAC 16 2 44 81 12 13 29 12 54 0.10 16 Fredonia SUNYAC 14 5 29 33 32 15 19 28 62 0.10 17 Elizabethtown Commonwealth 13 6 27 30 29 24 13 26 63 0.10 18 Bowdoin NESCAC 10 6 9 6 14 18 22 24 64 3.00 19 St. John Fisher Empire Eight 15 5 21 27 31 16 20 32 68 0.10 20 Adrian Midwest 16 3 53 101 25 25 25 19 69 0.10 21 Christopher Newp USA South Atl. 15 4 48 91 27 26 30 20 76 0.10 22 Ithaca Empire Eight 13 4 16 31 20 23 37 21 81 0.10 23 Tufts NESCAC 9 6 11 5 18 21 27 33 81 2.00 24 Denison North Coast 15 5 42 79 41 17 35 43 95 0.10 25 Stevens Empire Eight 10 7 28 25 54 27 18 54 99 0.10 26 Buffalo State SUNYAC 14 7 22 15 23 14 68 25 107 0.10 27 Brockport SUNYAC 10 5 14 28 38 35 38 35 108 0.10 28 Stevenson Capital 9 7 31 24 51 43 23 45 111 0.10 29 Hamilton NESCAC 7 10 12 1 58 42 9 70 121 0.10 30 Montclair State Skyline 14 6 49 65 46 44 31 46 121 0.10 31 Wittenberg North Coast 12 5 63 82 56 30 43 49 122 0.10 32 Sewanee SCAC 11 6 72 85 70 29 28 66 123 0.10 33 Bates NESCAC 7 8 17 7 40 46 21 57 124 0.10 34 Geneseo SUNYAC 9 6 20 20 57 40 32 53 125 0.10 35 Springfield NEWMAC 11 8 34 22 77 34 16 78 128 0.10 36 Norwich Great Northeas 14 2 113 175 11 41 84 13 138 0.10 37 Endicott Comm. Coast 12 6 35 48 45 36 46 59 141 0.10 38 Washington Colle Centennial 10 6 41 34 49 45 50 47 142 0.10 39 Rensselaer Liberty League 16 2 33 61 10 32 99 14 145 0.10 40 Roanoke Old Dominion 11 7 66 71 75 52 34 64 150 0.10 41 Plymouth State Little East 13 2 52 124 21 37 93 23 153 0.10 42 Oneonta SUNYAC 12 4 25 41 30 28 100 30 158 0.10 43 Swarthmore Centennial 12 6 47 50 43 49 65 44 158 0.10 44 Babson NEWMAC 13 3 26 49 26 38 92 31 161 0.10 45 Occidental SCIAC 13 4 56 73 47 31 102 29 162 0.10 46 Union Liberty League 7 8 37 19 78 63 33 73 169 0.10 47 Castleton State NEWLA 12 7 88 117 68 48 55 71 174 0.10 48 Rowan Independent 10 7 39 46 66 50 56 68 174 0.10 49 FDU-Florham Freedom 13 6 78 75 53 58 74 50 182 0.10 50 Scranton Landmark 11 7 58 62 76 55 62 65 182 0.10 51 Wooster North Coast 12 5 67 112 62 53 77 52 182 0.10 52 Dickinson Centennial 7 9 45 18 98 64 26 95 185 0.10 53 Susquehanna Landmark 15 2 24 60 13 19 156 11 186 0.10 54 Ursinus Centennial 9 8 51 40 73 66 47 74 187 0.10 55 Lynchburg Old Dominion 11 7 64 96 89 65 42 81 188 0.10 56 Alvernia Commonwealth 12 8 68 78 83 59 48 84 191 0.10 57 Colorado College SCAC 15 3 54 106 28 39 125 27 191 0.10 58 Farmingdale Skyline 13 2 50 111 19 47 124 22 193 0.10 59 Williams NESCAC 6 9 19 8 67 73 36 88 197 0.10 60 Keene State Little East 14 4 65 77 34 33 128 37 198 0.10 61 Washington & Jef Independent 13 4 84 118 44 60 96 42 198 0.10 62 Guilford Old Dominion 11 7 90 92 88 70 58 76 204 0.10 63 Gordon Comm. Coast 14 4 70 121 39 56 112 40 208 0.10 64 William Smith Liberty League 9 9 36 23 93 68 39 102 209 0.10 65 Marywood CSAC 16 5 93 149 35 62 116 36 214 0.10 66 Skidmore Liberty League 9 7 61 44 71 69 78 69 216 0.10 67 Univ of New Engl Comm. Coast 12 5 87 99 48 57 111 48 216 0.10 68 Wheaton NEWMAC 14 6 43 68 52 54 101 61 216 0.10 69 Drew Landmark 8 9 62 37 115 72 41 104 217 0.10 70 Cabrini CSAC 10 9 111 97 97 76 49 94 219 0.10 71 Lasell Great Northeas 15 4 112 180 37 61 121 39 221 0.10 72 St. Lawrence Liberty League 9 7 40 43 72 71 72 79 222 0.10 73 Carthage Midwest 12 5 85 132 55 79 89 55 223 0.10 74 Berry Independent 9 5 98 129 64 75 94 63 232 0.10 75 Western Connecti Little East 12 8 79 86 95 67 66 101 234 0.10 76 McDaniel Centennial 6 11 55 21 142 78 24 133 235 0.10 77 Connecticut Coll NESCAC 6 10 30 13 79 85 51 103 239 0.10 78 RIT Liberty League 10 7 46 52 85 74 81 86 241 0.10 79 Lebanon Valley Commonwealth 9 8 82 66 102 80 64 98 242 0.10 80 Wesleyan (CT) NESCAC 5 10 38 10 86 90 40 117 247 0.10 81 St. Mary's (MD) Capital 8 9 60 42 109 89 61 107 257 0.10 82 Allegheny North Coast 9 9 96 104 133 81 57 122 260 0.10 83 Centre SCAC 13 5 77 128 61 51 151 58 260 0.10 84 Kenyon North Coast 7 8 89 105 122 88 63 110 261 0.10 85 Haverford Centennial 6 10 59 29 129 86 53 124 263 0.10 86 Bridgewater Stat NEWLA 12 8 120 131 87 96 95 80 271 0.10 87 Eastern Connecti Little East 12 7 83 93 84 83 106 85 274 0.10 88 Claremont-Mudd-S SCIAC 6 10 73 59 158 84 44 148 276 0.10 89 Augustana Independent 15 3 74 192 33 87 159 34 280 0.10 90 Salve Regina Comm. Coast 11 6 116 133 69 82 126 72 280 0.10 91 Marymount Capital 5 10 95 51 151 100 45 137 282 0.10 92 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 8 8 117 120 119 98 69 115 282 0.10 93 Nazareth Empire Eight 6 9 81 35 113 91 67 130 288 0.10 94 Shenandoah USA South Atl. 13 5 71 139 42 77 188 41 306 0.10 95 New Paltz SUNYAC 7 10 86 56 134 101 71 135 307 0.10 96 Morrisville NEAC 13 6 133 185 65 102 141 67 310 0.10 97 Kean Skyline 9 9 104 109 99 110 105 97 312 0.10 98 Centenary CSAC 10 5 123 176 60 107 146 60 313 0.10 99 Potsdam SUNYAC 5 11 103 36 162 95 59 159 313 0.10 100 Southern Maine Little East 7 11 107 74 154 94 54 168 316 0.10 101 Goucher Landmark 5 10 80 57 155 92 73 155 320 0.10 102 Mount Holyoke NEWMAC 6 8 94 67 127 93 98 129 320 0.10 103 Emerson Great Northeas 8 7 156 184 96 118 113 92 323 0.10 104 St. Joseph's (NY Skyline 9 9 114 115 135 116 79 132 327 0.10 105 Muhlenberg Centennial 5 8 57 45 101 113 117 100 330 0.10 106 Oberlin North Coast 11 5 128 159 59 120 160 56 336 0.10 107 Neumann CSAC 10 7 136 156 92 125 123 90 338 0.10 108 Elmira Empire Eight 8 8 105 94 116 111 132 96 339 0.10 109 Frostburg State Capital 4 12 99 47 182 104 60 178 342 0.10 110 Keuka NEAC 11 3 127 201 36 108 196 38 342 0.10 111 Western New Engl Comm. Coast 6 12 106 69 196 97 52 196 345 0.10 112 Westfield State NEWLA 9 8 118 169 114 123 104 118 345 0.10 113 Utica Empire Eight 8 7 91 102 94 112 143 91 346 0.10 114 Simmons Great Northeas 8 9 152 178 139 121 87 142 350 0.10 115 Eastern Freedom 8 10 97 72 145 103 103 149 355 0.10 116 Oswego SUNYAC 4 10 92 58 147 124 88 145 357 0.10 117 Birmingham-South SCAC 7 7 144 127 111 109 136 113 358 0.10 118 Wellesley NEWMAC 6 11 75 63 180 99 75 185 359 0.10 119 Greensboro USA South Atl. 5 9 129 113 146 126 83 153 362 0.10 120 Roger Williams Comm. Coast 6 12 110 84 195 105 70 195 370 0.10 121 Vassar Liberty League 5 10 76 54 172 115 86 170 371 0.10 122 Curry Comm. Coast 6 10 130 122 165 119 90 165 374 0.10 123 Pomona-Pitzer SCIAC 7 10 101 80 143 106 149 121 376 0.10 124 Saint Joseph's ( Great Northeas 8 6 169 196 81 122 172 82 376 0.10 125 Wesley Capital 8 9 140 123 120 143 119 116 378 0.10 126 Pacific (OR) Independent 8 6 119 144 80 134 168 77 379 0.10 127 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 8 10 146 126 157 138 85 157 380 0.10 128 Smith NEWMAC 10 9 108 103 132 117 129 136 382 0.10 129 New England Coll North Atlantic 10 9 141 152 130 114 135 134 383 0.10 130 Virginia Wesleya Old Dominion 6 11 100 90 185 132 76 177 385 0.10 131 Widener Commonwealth 6 9 102 88 140 127 118 143 388 0.10 132 Hartwick Empire Eight 5 11 134 89 183 129 80 184 393 0.10 133 Colby-Sawyer North Atlantic 8 9 145 173 137 128 130 140 398 0.10 134 King's Freedom 10 8 115 145 107 136 158 105 399 0.10 135 Nichols Comm. Coast 7 8 132 151 123 130 144 125 399 0.10 136 Clarkson Liberty League 7 8 69 76 121 133 145 123 401 0.10 137 Rivier Great Northeas 5 7 172 195 108 137 153 111 401 0.10 138 Alma Independent 5 8 185 187 63 144 197 62 403 0.10 139 Ferrum USA South Atl. 11 6 138 168 74 131 198 75 404 0.10 140 Framingham State NEWLA 10 8 148 170 106 139 163 109 411 0.10 141 Lycoming Commonwealth 5 12 147 98 194 141 82 193 416 0.10 142 Salem State NEWLA 8 6 168 203 82 151 183 83 417 0.10 143 Saint Vincent Independent 5 8 155 143 131 148 133 138 419 0.10 144 Mount Saint Mary Skyline 7 8 139 153 100 146 177 99 422 0.10 145 North Central Midwest 6 10 124 134 167 147 110 167 424 0.10 146 Maine-Farmington North Atlantic 5 6 180 186 91 153 189 89 431 0.10 147 Gwynedd-Mercy CSAC 8 10 137 148 156 140 140 158 438 0.10 148 Ramapo Skyline 4 9 125 100 144 155 137 146 438 0.10 149 Regis (MA) Independent 9 4 182 216 50 176 215 51 442 0.10 150 Rhode Island Col Little East 4 11 142 125 191 142 108 192 442 0.10 151 Cazenovia NEAC 9 8 162 198 112 158 176 114 448 0.10 152 Fitchburg State NEWLA 7 10 157 167 160 150 138 162 450 0.10 153 MIT NEWMAC 2 14 121 64 212 149 91 211 451 0.10 154 Mount St. Joseph Midwest 4 10 170 138 174 162 115 174 451 0.10 155 Manhattanville Freedom 4 13 131 70 203 145 109 200 454 0.10 156 Whittier SCIAC 6 11 109 95 169 135 165 154 454 0.10 157 Thomas North Atlantic 5 7 183 204 110 166 180 112 458 0.10 158 Methodist USA South Atl. 6 8 164 177 104 161 199 106 466 0.10 159 Misericordia Freedom 4 11 153 107 184 157 127 182 466 0.10 160 Albion Midwest 0 7 191 114 105 184 175 108 467 0.10 161 Bridgewater Old Dominion 6 10 126 119 164 156 152 160 468 0.10 162 Alfred Empire Eight 4 10 143 110 149 154 164 151 469 0.10 163 Medaille NEAC 8 8 176 200 118 165 184 120 469 0.10 164 Mass.-Dartmouth Little East 5 12 171 140 197 160 114 197 471 0.10 165 Puget Sound Independent 3 11 150 108 192 163 120 189 472 0.10 166 Concordia-Wiscon Midwest 3 10 186 165 159 181 131 161 473 0.10 167 Husson North Atlantic 3 10 189 158 166 168 142 166 476 0.10 168 Hood Capital 2 15 178 87 213 170 97 213 480 0.10 169 Arcadia Freedom 8 9 135 166 136 164 178 139 481 0.10 170 Notre Dame (MD) CSAC 7 8 159 188 124 175 181 126 482 0.10 171 Rutgers-Camden Independent 4 10 161 135 163 171 148 164 483 0.10 172 Trine Midwest 2 7 174 142 125 174 182 127 483 0.10 173 Emmanuel Great Northeas 5 10 188 197 170 159 154 172 485 0.10 174 Wilkes Freedom 6 6 163 190 90 187 211 87 485 0.10 175 Thiel Independent 6 9 149 155 152 152 186 150 488 0.10 176 Rochester Liberty League 2 13 122 55 206 173 107 209 489 0.10 177 Bryn Mawr Centennial 3 12 160 83 187 182 122 187 491 0.10 178 Otterbein Independent 5 11 173 147 188 169 134 188 491 0.10 179 Linfield Independent 1 7 179 157 103 203 205 93 501 0.10 180 Mount Saint Vinc Skyline 4 9 154 130 153 179 169 156 504 0.10 181 Randolph Old Dominion 4 11 167 137 190 177 139 190 506 0.10 182 Mount Ida Great Northeas 4 11 175 189 189 167 150 191 508 0.10 183 Canton Independent 2 9 197 161 141 183 185 144 512 0.10 184 Dallas SCAC 2 10 184 146 178 180 155 180 515 0.10 185 Millsaps SCAC 3 10 165 163 138 172 203 141 516 0.10 186 Daniel Webster Independent 6 8 201 215 126 189 200 128 517 0.10 187 LaGrange USA South Atl. 3 8 196 182 117 188 213 119 520 0.10 188 Bard Liberty League 5 11 158 116 186 178 161 186 525 0.10 189 Waynesburg Independent 2 10 195 162 173 197 171 171 539 0.10 190 Sweet Briar Old Dominion 4 12 151 136 199 185 157 198 540 0.10 191 Olivet Independent 2 13 190 199 128 206 204 131 541 0.10 192 Worcester State NEWLA 3 12 187 174 201 192 147 202 541 0.10 193 SUNYIT NEAC 4 10 199 191 148 194 202 147 543 0.10 194 Green Mountain North Atlantic 2 10 204 193 179 191 174 181 546 0.10 195 Albright Commonwealth 4 13 177 141 204 190 162 205 557 0.10 196 Immaculata CSAC 4 12 166 171 198 193 170 199 562 0.10 197 Penn State-Abing NEAC 4 10 193 205 175 196 193 175 564 0.10 198 Maritime Skyline 2 10 181 150 161 195 207 163 565 0.10 199 Anna Maria Great Northeas 2 12 205 208 202 198 167 203 568 0.10 200 Agnes Scott USA South Atl. 2 12 192 154 193 186 190 194 570 0.10 201 Fontbonne Midwest 0 10 200 181 150 213 212 152 577 0.10 202 Sage Skyline 1 13 198 160 210 201 166 210 577 0.10 203 No. Carolina Wes USA South Atl. 0 10 206 172 171 207 201 173 581 0.10 204 St. Elizabeth NEAC 4 10 208 212 176 205 208 176 589 0.10 205 Cedar Crest CSAC 1 14 210 179 214 204 173 214 591 0.10 206 Saint Joseph Great Northeas 3 11 207 209 177 199 214 179 592 0.10 207 Hollins Old Dominion 1 14 202 164 205 202 187 204 593 0.10 208 Trinity (DC) Independent 1 9 213 202 168 216 216 169 601 0.10 209 Wilson NEAC 2 10 214 214 181 211 210 183 604 0.10 210 Mass. Maritime NEWLA 2 13 212 207 209 208 191 208 607 0.10 211 Rosemont CSAC 0 15 215 183 216 212 179 216 607 0.10 212 Lancaster Bible NEAC 2 13 203 206 208 209 194 207 610 0.10 213 Wells NEAC 3 13 194 194 200 200 209 201 610 0.10 214 Becker NEWLA 3 14 209 211 211 210 195 212 617 0.10 215 Elms NEWLA 0 15 211 210 215 215 192 215 622 0.10 216 Wheelock Independent 1 12 216 213 207 214 206 206 626 0.10