2012 NCAA Women's Division I
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 Northwestern Amer. Lac. Con 21 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 4 24.00 2 Syracuse Big East 19 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 5 14.00 3 Florida Amer. Lac. Con 19 3 1 12 4 3 3 4 10 34.00 4 Maryland Atlantic Coast 19 4 3 5 3 4 4 3 11 11.00 5 North Carolina Atlantic Coast 15 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 15 10.00 6 Duke Atlantic Coast 12 7 6 4 11 7 7 10 24 2.00 7 Loyola Big East 14 6 12 13 7 10 8 7 25 0.10 8 Virginia Atlantic Coast 11 8 7 2 13 11 6 12 29 1.00 9 Notre Dame Big East 13 5 10 16 10 8 12 11 31 0.10 10 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 19 2 9 42 6 6 20 6 32 0.10 11 Towson Colonial 16 4 26 23 12 9 18 8 35 0.10 12 Penn State Amer. Lac. Con 12 7 15 11 14 13 9 14 36 0.10 13 Dartmouth Ivy League 12 5 22 15 8 12 13 13 38 0.10 14 Georgetown Big East 9 8 13 9 17 21 11 17 49 0.10 15 Cornell Ivy League 11 5 8 21 22 17 26 16 59 2.00 16 Johns Hopkins Amer. Lac. Con 9 9 16 7 30 15 10 35 60 0.10 17 Penn Ivy League 9 8 17 8 28 16 16 28 60 0.10 18 Richmond Atlantic 10 10 8 27 20 35 18 14 29 61 1.00 19 Stony Brook America East 14 5 19 37 16 19 31 15 65 0.10 20 Ohio State Amer. Lac. Con 11 6 11 22 19 23 24 20 67 1.00 21 Oregon MPSF 14 5 35 55 25 22 23 22 67 0.10 22 Navy Patriot League 18 3 20 54 9 14 45 9 68 0.10 23 Albany America East 12 6 29 36 21 27 19 23 69 0.10 24 Vanderbilt Amer. Lac. Con 8 8 21 10 23 24 17 32 73 0.10 25 Boston College Atlantic Coast 10 8 14 14 29 20 27 34 81 0.10 26 James Madison Colonial 11 7 23 25 37 29 29 27 85 0.10 27 Boston Universit America East 11 6 30 31 31 25 32 30 87 0.10 28 High Point NLC 15 4 45 73 18 31 41 18 90 0.10 29 Temple Atlantic 10 9 8 38 35 42 28 22 41 91 0.10 30 Princeton Ivy League 8 7 18 18 34 30 35 33 98 0.10 31 Duquesne Atlantic 10 12 6 32 56 32 33 44 26 103 0.10 32 UMBC America East 8 9 31 26 48 38 21 44 103 0.10 33 Harvard Ivy League 9 7 24 19 33 26 42 37 105 0.10 34 Rutgers Big East 9 7 28 28 36 34 33 38 105 0.10 35 Virginia Tech Atlantic Coast 10 7 39 33 24 43 38 25 106 0.10 36 George Washingto Atlantic 10 10 7 56 65 40 44 30 39 113 0.10 37 Jacksonville NLC 15 4 25 75 15 36 61 19 116 0.10 38 Connecticut Big East 10 6 42 43 26 37 51 31 119 0.10 39 William & Mary Colonial 4 13 40 17 60 48 15 56 119 0.10 40 Stanford MPSF 8 10 44 34 53 41 25 55 121 0.10 41 Denver MPSF 12 3 33 61 20 32 77 21 130 0.10 42 Drexel Colonial 11 6 34 48 39 39 58 36 133 0.10 43 Canisius Metro Atlantic 10 9 43 58 46 47 37 50 134 0.10 44 Holy Cross Patriot League 10 8 53 50 41 40 52 42 134 0.10 45 Vermont America East 9 8 36 45 44 42 48 45 135 0.10 46 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 13 4 46 68 27 35 80 24 139 0.10 47 La Salle Atlantic 10 10 6 57 62 38 45 56 40 141 0.10 48 California MPSF 8 8 41 52 49 46 53 47 146 0.10 49 American Patriot League 7 10 49 41 54 49 46 54 149 0.10 50 New Hampshire America East 5 11 51 38 69 53 36 67 156 0.10 51 Louisville Big East 3 12 47 29 58 64 28 66 158 0.10 52 Yale Ivy League 5 10 48 30 56 55 47 57 159 0.10 53 Hofstra Colonial 5 12 37 24 74 54 34 72 160 0.10 54 Monmouth Northeast 9 11 66 71 68 50 50 60 160 0.10 55 Delaware Colonial 5 12 52 27 73 58 39 64 161 0.10 56 Siena Metro Atlantic 6 11 71 63 62 61 40 63 164 0.10 57 Brown Ivy League 6 8 55 44 45 51 68 48 167 0.10 58 Lafayette Patriot League 9 8 59 66 47 52 69 46 167 0.10 59 Lehigh Patriot League 7 9 58 49 50 57 62 49 168 0.10 60 Iona Metro Atlantic 9 7 61 77 43 56 72 43 171 0.10 61 Davidson NLC 8 10 69 78 61 63 57 59 179 0.10 62 Colgate Patriot League 6 11 54 47 67 59 59 71 189 0.10 63 Quinnipiac Northeast 8 8 70 86 51 60 78 51 189 0.10 64 Sacred Heart Northeast 8 9 74 85 55 62 74 53 189 0.10 65 Old Dominion Colonial 4 13 50 32 80 68 43 79 190 0.10 66 Robert Morris Northeast 7 10 72 81 59 65 66 61 192 0.10 67 Saint Joseph's Atlantic 10 5 11 62 64 77 66 55 75 196 0.10 68 Villanova Big East 4 12 64 40 72 67 54 77 198 0.10 69 Detroit NLC 8 9 77 79 52 73 75 52 200 0.10 70 Marist Metro Atlantic 4 13 68 57 82 72 49 83 204 0.10 71 UC Davis MPSF 6 10 60 74 71 69 65 70 204 0.10 72 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 3 10 76 53 63 70 67 68 205 0.10 73 Fresno State MPSF 3 10 89 60 65 79 73 65 217 0.10 74 George Mason Colonial 3 13 67 46 88 76 60 82 218 0.10 75 Central Connecti Northeast 7 9 75 89 57 75 86 58 219 0.10 76 Mount Saint Mary Northeast 8 11 78 83 76 71 79 74 224 0.10 77 Cincinnati Big East 3 13 82 59 79 81 64 80 225 0.10 78 Bryant Northeast 6 10 73 88 64 80 84 62 226 0.10 79 Binghamton America East 3 13 65 51 84 77 63 87 227 0.10 80 Bucknell Patriot League 5 12 80 69 78 82 70 78 230 0.10 81 Columbia Ivy League 2 13 63 39 85 74 71 85 230 0.10 82 San Diego State MPSF 5 10 79 72 70 78 85 76 239 0.10 83 Longwood NLC 4 13 84 70 87 83 76 86 245 0.10 84 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 4 10 85 82 75 85 87 73 245 0.10 85 Wagner Northeast 7 10 83 92 66 86 91 69 246 0.10 86 Niagara Metro Atlantic 3 11 86 67 81 84 83 81 248 0.10 87 St. Mary's (CA) MPSF 3 12 81 76 83 87 82 84 253 0.10 88 Liberty NLC 3 14 88 87 89 89 81 89 259 0.10 89 Howard NLC 0 14 92 80 86 88 88 88 264 0.10 90 Saint Francis Northeast 3 14 87 90 90 91 90 90 271 0.10 91 Long Island U. Northeast 1 15 91 91 91 92 89 91 272 0.10 92 Presbyterian NLC 3 16 90 84 92 90 92 92 274 0.10