2011 NCAA Women's Division III
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 College of New J Independent 20 1 1 36 1 2 3 1 6 35.00 2 Gettysburg Centennial 19 4 3 7 6 4 1 3 8 11.00 3 Franklin & Marsh Centennial 19 3 8 11 5 6 2 4 12 3.00 4 Trinity (CT) NESCAC 18 1 9 3 2 1 12 2 15 3.00 5 Bowdoin NESCAC 18 4 10 10 4 7 4 5 16 1.00 6 Salisbury Capital 19 3 5 24 9 3 6 8 17 3.00 7 Cortland SUNYAC 21 2 2 8 3 5 11 6 22 15.00 8 Colby NESCAC 15 5 12 14 8 9 7 10 26 1.00 9 Stevens Empire Eight 16 4 17 19 10 8 9 9 26 1.00 10 Middlebury NESCAC 11 6 6 1 16 11 8 18 37 2.00 11 Tufts NESCAC 12 7 7 4 20 13 5 19 37 4.00 12 Catholic (DC) Landmark 15 4 16 17 13 14 16 12 42 0.10 13 Claremont-Mudd-S SCIAC 16 3 25 50 14 10 18 14 42 2.00 14 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 15 5 21 47 18 16 10 17 43 0.10 15 Hamilton Liberty League 18 2 4 15 7 12 28 7 47 15.00 16 Elizabethtown Middle Atlanti 16 4 27 57 15 21 21 15 57 0.10 17 Rowan Independent 10 7 36 34 37 20 13 28 61 0.10 18 Messiah Middle Atlanti 18 2 11 68 11 17 37 11 65 2.00 19 Adrian Midwest 16 5 28 77 21 25 26 21 72 0.10 20 Bates NESCAC 9 7 18 12 34 28 19 32 79 0.10 21 Amherst NESCAC 9 6 14 5 25 24 31 26 81 0.10 22 Bridgewater Stat NEWLA 17 2 50 106 12 18 52 13 83 0.10 23 Sewanee SCAC 13 5 70 91 52 23 25 36 84 0.10 24 Buffalo State SUNYAC 12 5 13 31 29 22 33 33 88 2.00 25 Ithaca Empire Eight 11 7 20 20 36 32 14 49 95 0.10 26 Redlands SCIAC 13 5 53 83 51 29 46 27 102 0.10 27 Denison North Coast 13 5 62 84 43 27 36 43 106 0.10 28 Drew Landmark 11 8 29 21 74 19 20 67 106 0.10 29 Mary Washington Capital 13 8 34 35 58 34 22 50 106 0.10 30 Montclair State Skyline 13 6 59 88 41 48 29 30 107 0.10 31 Nazareth Empire Eight 11 5 31 37 24 31 49 31 111 0.10 32 Williams NESCAC 8 9 22 2 59 26 17 69 112 0.10 33 St. John Fisher Empire Eight 13 5 19 39 28 30 54 29 113 0.10 34 Union Liberty League 10 8 26 9 53 39 15 60 114 0.10 35 Endicott Comm. Coast 14 7 52 74 35 40 30 46 116 0.10 36 Stevenson Capital 10 7 38 32 70 37 24 64 125 0.10 37 Christopher Newp USA South Atl. 13 6 47 81 55 36 38 53 127 0.10 38 York Capital 13 4 35 55 22 41 66 20 127 0.10 39 Brockport SUNYAC 10 7 24 16 31 44 32 61 137 0.10 40 Castleton State NEWLA 12 5 97 133 54 38 50 51 139 0.10 41 Washington Colle Centennial 11 6 51 41 42 42 57 40 139 0.10 42 Roanoke Old Dominion 12 8 32 53 75 46 23 72 141 0.10 43 Geneseo SUNYAC 12 4 15 42 19 43 80 23 146 0.10 44 FDU-Florham Middle Atlanti 13 7 63 62 65 47 35 66 148 0.10 45 Springfield NEWMAC 11 6 42 46 63 35 59 55 149 0.10 46 Western New Engl Comm. Coast 17 5 60 117 39 52 56 41 149 0.10 47 Norwich Great Northeas 10 3 98 159 27 33 93 25 151 0.10 48 Haverford Centennial 10 7 44 30 60 50 53 57 160 0.10 49 Lynchburg Old Dominion 12 5 41 70 57 45 63 52 160 0.10 50 Curry Comm. Coast 16 5 84 132 40 53 67 42 162 0.10 51 Fredonia SUNYAC 12 5 37 51 30 49 70 44 163 0.10 52 Ursinus Centennial 8 9 43 25 83 56 27 80 163 0.10 53 Colorado College SCAC 13 3 57 130 23 15 127 22 164 0.10 54 Pomona-Pitzer SCIAC 10 8 85 82 107 60 41 81 182 0.10 55 Babson NEWMAC 10 8 30 33 69 51 55 77 183 0.10 56 St. Mary's (MD) Capital 12 6 49 58 64 57 68 59 184 0.10 57 Fitchburg State NEWLA 12 3 111 153 26 54 112 24 190 0.10 58 Connecticut Coll NESCAC 6 9 23 6 81 59 47 93 199 0.10 59 Allegheny North Coast 12 6 83 93 67 65 65 70 200 0.10 60 Rensselaer Liberty League 10 5 33 28 48 61 85 58 204 0.10 61 Skidmore Liberty League 10 8 46 40 62 75 51 79 205 0.10 62 Greensboro USA South Atl. 10 4 66 95 45 58 102 48 208 0.10 63 Alvernia Middle Atlanti 11 8 72 90 76 66 60 84 210 0.10 64 Westfield State NEWLA 9 6 102 136 78 63 75 75 213 0.10 65 Swarthmore Centennial 9 7 56 66 72 76 73 68 217 0.10 66 Wesleyan (CT) NESCAC 6 9 40 22 84 62 58 97 217 0.10 67 William Smith Liberty League 6 9 39 13 93 68 34 120 222 0.10 68 Washington & Jef Independent 13 4 78 127 33 72 121 37 230 0.10 69 Wittenberg North Coast 9 6 79 105 79 71 78 82 231 0.10 70 Dickinson Centennial 7 10 45 38 122 74 44 122 240 0.10 71 MIT NEWMAC 9 6 75 75 77 64 108 78 250 0.10 72 Goucher Landmark 8 8 67 60 110 69 84 100 253 0.10 73 Wooster North Coast 10 6 80 107 80 70 107 76 253 0.10 74 Roger Williams Comm. Coast 11 7 87 115 91 82 91 86 259 0.10 75 Virginia Wesleya Old Dominion 10 8 74 89 109 84 74 102 260 0.10 76 Gordon Comm. Coast 11 7 103 125 87 83 89 89 261 0.10 77 Scranton Landmark 10 6 54 64 71 67 131 63 261 0.10 78 Eastern Connecti Little East 9 8 99 72 95 77 100 88 265 0.10 79 Lasell Great Northeas 11 7 132 166 88 80 96 90 266 0.10 80 Eastern Middle Atlanti 7 9 86 71 116 88 64 116 268 0.10 81 Pacific (OR) Independent 10 4 105 146 46 87 143 38 268 0.10 82 Keene State Little East 13 6 73 102 50 55 161 54 270 0.10 83 Muhlenberg Centennial 7 8 55 49 97 94 82 96 272 0.10 84 Ramapo Skyline 11 5 113 131 47 92 135 45 272 0.10 85 Keuka NEAC 12 1 121 194 17 81 180 16 277 0.10 86 Centre SCAC 11 6 115 169 49 78 168 34 280 0.10 87 Puget Sound Independent 6 6 126 118 90 95 113 73 281 0.10 88 Birmingham-South SCAC 8 8 120 128 113 102 76 104 282 0.10 89 Wheaton NEWMAC 7 12 71 43 141 73 45 164 282 0.10 90 Oswego SUNYAC 8 6 68 52 61 79 138 71 288 0.10 91 Occidental SCIAC 6 12 104 63 184 89 43 160 292 0.10 92 RIT Empire Eight 6 11 61 29 145 91 48 157 296 0.10 93 Manhattanville Middle Atlanti 7 9 108 76 119 98 79 123 300 0.10 94 St. Lawrence Liberty League 6 10 48 27 124 101 62 138 301 0.10 95 Husson North Atlantic 9 8 162 174 96 111 101 95 307 0.10 96 Whittier SCIAC 6 12 90 69 185 93 42 172 307 0.10 97 Hartwick Empire Eight 7 8 95 85 105 99 106 106 311 0.10 98 Kean Skyline 9 9 110 119 118 120 88 110 318 0.10 99 Marywood CSAC 13 5 92 157 32 97 186 35 318 0.10 100 Shenandoah USA South Atl. 12 5 76 143 38 90 194 39 323 0.10 101 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 7 10 100 87 153 121 61 142 324 0.10 102 Vassar Liberty League 7 8 93 54 102 105 111 108 324 0.10 103 Gwynedd-Mercy CSAC 11 8 129 147 92 112 119 94 325 0.10 104 Frostburg State Capital 4 13 94 61 154 100 72 155 327 0.10 105 Oneonta SUNYAC 3 13 65 18 169 103 40 189 332 0.10 106 Kenyon North Coast 9 6 91 123 82 86 164 83 333 0.10 107 Southern Maine Little East 8 11 128 97 146 108 81 145 334 0.10 108 New Paltz SUNYAC 7 10 88 67 129 109 87 140 336 0.10 109 Simmons Great Northeas 7 6 153 177 86 106 144 87 337 0.10 110 Widener Middle Atlanti 9 8 107 103 104 104 126 109 339 0.10 111 Colby-Sawyer Comm. Coast 8 10 142 124 148 116 77 147 340 0.10 112 Elmira Empire Eight 5 10 89 59 149 107 86 148 341 0.10 113 Wellesley NEWMAC 8 8 82 80 112 85 137 119 341 0.10 114 Mount Ida Great Northeas 9 9 149 185 133 115 98 130 343 0.10 115 Lebanon Valley Middle Atlanti 8 8 109 96 106 110 124 111 345 0.10 116 Utica Empire Eight 6 8 64 44 101 114 118 114 346 0.10 117 McDaniel Centennial 2 14 58 23 194 119 39 193 351 0.10 118 Guilford Old Dominion 6 11 116 78 173 113 69 170 352 0.10 119 Emerson Great Northeas 7 9 131 144 136 96 128 135 359 0.10 120 Potsdam SUNYAC 5 11 69 48 152 117 83 161 361 0.10 121 Carthage Midwest 9 9 117 137 131 123 114 128 365 0.10 122 Rivier Great Northeas 9 7 156 195 98 127 140 99 366 0.10 123 Marymount Capital 5 9 101 79 132 122 116 129 367 0.10 124 Mount Holyoke NEWMAC 5 9 118 73 142 125 103 139 367 0.10 125 Cabrini CSAC 7 10 122 109 139 132 104 134 370 0.10 126 Centenary CSAC 9 5 138 179 68 137 169 65 371 0.10 127 Salve Regina Comm. Coast 7 10 139 121 157 126 92 153 371 0.10 128 Plymouth State Little East 7 8 114 129 123 124 133 118 375 0.10 129 Morrisville SUNYAC 7 7 152 168 100 131 145 101 377 0.10 130 Berry Independent 8 7 112 149 99 129 157 92 378 0.10 131 Arcadia Middle Atlanti 7 9 127 116 130 138 110 131 379 0.10 132 Ferrum USA South Atl. 10 5 124 175 44 130 202 47 379 0.10 133 Green Mountain North Atlantic 7 4 172 202 56 134 190 56 380 0.10 134 Susquehanna Landmark 7 8 81 56 120 128 139 113 380 0.10 135 King's Middle Atlanti 6 9 141 114 134 133 120 136 389 0.10 136 Saint Vincent Independent 2 8 123 113 128 142 132 127 401 0.10 137 Farmingdale Skyline 8 8 119 138 117 135 150 117 402 0.10 138 Oberlin North Coast 4 9 150 112 144 136 125 144 405 0.10 139 Bryn Mawr Centennial 6 9 134 92 114 150 141 115 406 0.10 140 North Central Midwest 7 7 140 161 85 143 179 85 407 0.10 141 Univ of New Engl Comm. Coast 4 13 136 99 189 146 71 190 407 0.10 142 Hood Capital 4 11 159 94 167 144 97 168 409 0.10 143 Alfred Empire Eight 2 11 125 65 176 141 94 177 412 0.10 144 Saint Joseph's ( Great Northeas 5 7 163 189 108 145 163 107 415 0.10 145 Western Connecti Little East 9 9 106 120 135 118 165 132 415 0.10 146 Dallas Independent 3 9 165 176 115 162 149 105 416 0.10 147 Smith NEWMAC 4 11 145 101 181 140 95 181 416 0.10 148 Wesley Capital 6 11 144 104 162 148 109 163 420 0.10 149 Framingham State NEWLA 4 10 154 148 164 147 115 159 421 0.10 150 Trine Midwest 7 6 143 178 73 153 199 74 426 0.10 151 Neumann CSAC 7 9 151 156 137 152 146 137 435 0.10 152 Mount Saint Vinc Skyline 6 8 137 158 127 154 156 126 436 0.10 153 Nichols Comm. Coast 4 12 161 142 191 157 90 191 438 0.10 154 Bridgewater Old Dominion 6 10 130 110 159 149 136 154 439 0.10 155 Sweet Briar Old Dominion 5 10 148 111 158 158 123 158 439 0.10 156 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 3 12 133 98 186 139 122 185 446 0.10 157 Becker NEWLA 6 9 177 191 138 161 153 133 447 0.10 158 Millsaps SCAC 1 14 179 163 160 160 142 151 453 0.10 159 Rochester Liberty League 2 13 96 26 193 156 99 198 453 0.10 160 Cazenovia NEAC 7 8 147 182 121 163 172 121 456 0.10 161 New England Coll Comm. Coast 6 11 155 139 174 155 130 175 460 0.10 162 Rutgers-Camden Independent 3 10 171 134 156 167 148 152 467 0.10 163 Olivet Independent 2 7 199 204 66 203 204 62 469 0.10 164 Lycoming Middle Atlanti 3 13 135 86 196 159 117 196 472 0.10 165 Rhode Island Col Little East 5 9 164 165 143 165 171 143 479 0.10 166 Worcester State NEWLA 2 10 173 151 171 164 147 169 480 0.10 167 Wilkes Middle Atlanti 3 14 170 122 203 173 105 203 481 0.10 168 Albion Midwest 4 7 176 186 94 185 201 98 484 0.10 169 Medaille NEAC 4 7 167 190 111 180 193 112 485 0.10 170 Fontbonne Midwest 5 10 157 145 163 151 173 165 489 0.10 171 Waynesburg Independent 1 8 195 167 103 189 197 103 489 0.10 172 LaGrange USA South Atl. 1 10 192 180 125 188 178 124 490 0.10 173 Misericordia Middle Atlanti 3 13 160 100 197 166 129 197 492 0.10 174 Wells NEAC 7 9 169 183 140 168 191 141 500 0.10 175 Pine Manor Great Northeas 1 5 206 206 89 206 206 91 503 0.10 176 Mount Saint Mary Skyline 4 10 166 152 165 172 166 166 504 0.10 177 Emmanuel Great Northeas 3 9 193 197 150 181 175 149 505 0.10 178 Maritime Skyline 2 10 175 160 155 175 174 156 505 0.10 179 Clarkson Liberty League 1 11 77 45 177 171 152 184 507 0.10 180 Methodist USA South Atl. 4 10 168 154 151 170 187 150 507 0.10 181 Mass.-Dartmouth Little East 5 11 146 150 179 169 162 179 510 0.10 182 Bard Skyline 3 9 178 164 147 186 181 146 513 0.10 183 Agnes Scott USA South Atl. 3 13 182 162 183 176 155 183 514 0.10 184 Lancaster Bible Independent 6 8 186 199 126 191 200 125 516 0.10 185 Anna Maria Comm. Coast 3 14 190 170 204 179 134 204 517 0.10 186 Regis (MA) Comm. Coast 4 12 187 173 192 174 151 192 517 0.10 187 Immaculata CSAC 5 11 158 172 178 177 167 178 522 0.10 188 Thomas North Atlantic 4 11 184 196 182 182 159 182 523 0.10 189 Linfield Independent 0 12 174 108 195 178 154 194 526 0.10 190 Saint Joseph Great Northeas 4 10 202 201 166 187 177 167 531 0.10 191 Hollins Old Dominion 4 12 183 141 190 184 160 188 532 0.10 192 Maine-Farmington North Atlantic 2 10 188 198 168 190 182 171 543 0.10 193 Elms NEWLA 3 13 200 193 198 192 158 195 545 0.10 194 Sage Skyline 0 9 196 155 161 197 188 162 547 0.10 195 Mount St. Joseph Midwest 2 14 185 140 200 183 170 200 553 0.10 196 Wilson NEAC 2 10 194 200 170 198 192 173 563 0.10 197 Concordia-Wiscon Midwest 0 12 189 135 188 193 184 187 564 0.10 198 Penn State-Abing NEAC 1 11 197 188 187 196 183 186 565 0.10 199 No. Carolina Wes USA South Atl. 0 13 191 181 180 200 198 180 578 0.10 200 St. Elizabeth NEAC 1 14 201 192 205 201 176 205 582 0.10 201 Cedar Crest CSAC 2 13 198 184 199 199 185 199 583 0.10 202 Wheelock Independent 1 10 203 203 175 204 203 176 583 0.10 203 Daniel Webster Independent 1 10 205 205 172 205 205 174 584 0.10 204 Randolph Old Dominion 1 14 181 126 202 194 195 202 591 0.10 205 Notre Dame (MD) CSAC 3 13 180 171 201 195 196 201 592 0.10 206 Rosemont CSAC 0 14 204 187 206 202 189 206 597 0.10