2009 NCAA Women's Division III
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 Salisbury Capital 20 2 2 7 2 2 1 2 5 40.00 2 Gettysburg Centennial 16 4 8 4 8 3 2 6 11 3.00 3 College of New J Independent 16 3 9 17 6 5 4 4 13 3.00 4 Hamilton Liberty League 16 3 5 6 4 4 7 5 16 13.00 5 Union Liberty League 15 4 11 3 5 6 6 7 19 4.00 6 Colby NESCAC 16 2 6 14 3 7 13 3 23 1.00 7 Middlebury NESCAC 11 6 12 1 12 10 3 14 27 8.00 8 Catholic (DC) Landmark 17 4 17 27 13 9 12 9 30 0.10 9 Tufts NESCAC 16 3 10 12 7 8 14 8 30 3.00 10 Roanoke Old Dominion 16 5 29 35 19 14 9 15 38 0.10 11 Franklin & Marsh Centennial 21 1 1 5 1 1 37 1 39 20.00 12 Babson NEWMAC 15 3 16 39 11 11 21 11 43 0.10 13 Williams NESCAC 13 7 19 9 17 15 5 23 43 0.10 14 Mary Washington Capital 14 8 25 25 42 18 8 28 54 0.10 15 St. Mary's (MD) Capital 12 5 24 26 27 16 18 20 54 0.10 16 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 13 5 22 30 25 20 19 16 55 0.10 17 Stevens Empire Eight 17 2 14 46 10 12 35 10 57 0.10 18 Elizabethtown Middle Atlanti 16 3 13 57 14 21 29 13 63 4.00 19 Dickinson Centennial 11 7 27 13 38 23 11 35 69 0.10 20 Endicott Comm. Coast 15 5 44 69 22 25 23 24 72 0.10 21 Trinity (CT) NESCAC 10 4 18 11 15 19 39 17 75 0.10 22 William Smith Liberty League 11 4 15 18 16 22 34 21 77 0.10 23 Messiah Middle Atlanti 14 5 28 47 24 24 20 34 78 0.10 24 Cortland SUNYAC 14 7 7 20 20 17 45 19 81 1.00 25 FDU-Florham Middle Atlanti 14 6 40 55 39 28 22 36 86 0.10 26 Buffalo State SUNYAC 16 2 4 43 9 13 63 12 88 0.10 27 St. John Fisher Empire Eight 11 7 26 28 45 27 15 48 90 0.10 28 Muhlenberg Centennial 10 4 30 31 21 26 48 22 96 0.10 29 Springfield NEWMAC 12 6 33 50 41 29 30 42 101 0.10 30 Cabrini CSAC 12 5 59 71 28 36 40 26 102 0.10 31 Rowan Independent 8 9 48 23 63 38 10 54 102 0.10 32 Stevenson Capital 10 7 34 38 48 32 27 46 105 0.10 33 McDaniel Centennial 9 8 37 16 69 31 16 63 110 0.10 34 Drew Landmark 10 8 45 24 70 33 28 50 111 0.10 35 Rochester Inst o Empire Eight 13 5 31 45 35 30 49 38 117 0.10 36 Castleton State NEWLA 15 4 94 152 29 34 55 30 119 0.10 37 Wesleyan (CT) NESCAC 6 9 46 2 54 42 17 62 121 0.10 38 Amherst NESCAC 6 8 43 8 55 43 25 56 124 0.10 39 Christopher Newp USA South Atl. 13 7 49 62 49 47 36 43 126 0.10 40 Geneseo SUNYAC 10 6 36 36 50 39 42 51 132 0.10 41 MIT NEWMAC 13 5 57 102 34 41 58 37 136 0.10 42 Oneonta SUNYAC 10 6 35 42 52 46 44 47 137 0.10 43 Bowdoin NESCAC 8 7 38 21 47 45 47 49 141 0.10 44 Nazareth Empire Eight 9 8 61 29 66 40 26 76 142 0.10 45 Claremont-Mudd-S Independent 12 2 41 99 18 37 92 18 147 0.10 46 Wooster North Coast 12 4 47 49 33 35 73 39 147 0.10 47 Bridgewater Stat NEWLA 14 4 75 151 31 49 66 33 148 0.10 48 Adrian Independent 10 4 39 84 36 56 67 29 152 0.10 49 Emerson Great Northeas 13 3 97 159 26 44 84 27 155 0.10 50 Wellesley NEWMAC 9 8 73 58 83 51 32 83 166 0.10 51 Eastern Middle Atlanti 11 7 67 60 59 52 50 66 168 0.10 52 Haverford Centennial 10 6 60 63 43 62 62 44 168 0.10 53 Roger Williams Comm. Coast 15 4 53 125 30 58 81 32 171 0.10 54 Rochester Liberty League 8 9 51 19 72 50 31 91 172 0.10 55 Utica Empire Eight 8 6 52 51 56 59 68 55 182 0.10 56 Vassar Liberty League 9 7 68 52 57 61 61 64 186 0.10 57 Virginia Wesleya Old Dominion 9 9 63 53 108 60 38 89 187 0.10 58 Western New Engl Comm. Coast 13 7 70 106 75 57 53 78 188 0.10 59 Rensselaer Liberty League 8 7 54 41 53 63 69 61 193 0.10 60 Farmingdale Skyline 11 4 72 123 32 67 96 31 194 0.10 61 Washington Colle Centennial 7 8 66 34 90 66 46 82 194 0.10 62 Ithaca Empire Eight 7 9 58 32 91 64 33 100 197 0.10 63 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 9 7 85 67 81 68 60 73 201 0.10 64 Bates NESCAC 8 8 20 22 46 53 98 53 204 0.10 65 Kenyon North Coast 12 5 23 87 40 48 117 41 206 0.10 66 Fredonia SUNYAC 10 7 62 72 71 76 59 75 210 0.10 67 Puget Sound Independent 10 2 78 149 23 55 132 25 212 0.10 68 Scranton Landmark 8 7 76 70 87 70 76 74 220 0.10 69 Eastern Connecti Little East 9 9 83 68 94 74 56 94 224 0.10 70 Skidmore Liberty League 6 9 79 37 88 80 43 102 225 0.10 71 Colorado College Independent 10 5 3 91 58 65 104 57 226 0.10 72 Ursinus Centennial 5 12 81 15 141 69 24 139 232 0.10 73 Norwich Great Northeas 8 7 56 158 44 54 135 45 234 0.10 74 Whittier Independent 8 6 102 109 76 72 83 79 234 0.10 75 St. Lawrence Liberty League 6 8 64 40 82 79 64 92 235 0.10 76 Connecticut Coll NESCAC 4 10 71 10 109 73 51 115 239 0.10 77 Marymount Capital 6 8 95 56 99 77 75 87 239 0.10 78 York Capital 7 10 96 44 133 75 41 127 243 0.10 79 Curry Comm. Coast 11 9 93 127 116 81 52 116 249 0.10 80 Gwynedd-Mercy CSAC 12 6 109 134 62 85 112 60 257 0.10 81 Susquehanna Landmark 7 6 90 81 74 87 102 69 258 0.10 82 Keene State Little East 12 8 69 112 64 78 114 68 260 0.10 83 Montclair State Skyline 8 10 91 96 136 88 54 126 268 0.10 84 Westfield State NEWLA 11 6 116 164 67 96 108 65 269 0.10 85 Worcester State NEWLA 7 7 132 155 97 93 79 98 270 0.10 86 Brockport SUNYAC 5 9 77 33 113 84 57 130 271 0.10 87 Plymouth State Little East 6 9 119 85 118 90 65 118 273 0.10 88 Redlands Independent 6 8 115 89 111 92 72 111 275 0.10 89 Lynchburg Old Dominion 9 8 82 98 103 91 89 96 276 0.10 90 Lycoming Middle Atlanti 9 9 65 83 114 86 78 125 289 0.10 91 Sewanee Independent 8 5 88 86 60 100 131 58 289 0.10 92 New England Coll Comm. Coast 10 9 105 120 122 98 70 122 290 0.10 93 Wheaton NEWMAC 6 10 103 59 139 83 71 140 294 0.10 94 Manhattanville Middle Atlanti 11 6 42 104 65 71 154 71 296 0.10 95 Wittenberg North Coast 7 7 107 65 80 94 121 81 296 0.10 96 Swarthmore Centennial 8 8 55 64 89 82 128 88 298 0.10 97 Gordon Comm. Coast 6 9 98 97 127 97 80 123 300 0.10 98 Oswego SUNYAC 9 8 80 88 96 99 106 97 302 0.10 99 Potsdam SUNYAC 7 8 86 77 105 95 103 106 304 0.10 100 Goucher Landmark 7 8 89 90 110 102 101 104 307 0.10 101 Hood Capital 8 7 129 137 77 120 129 70 319 0.10 102 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 7 7 74 74 100 103 116 101 320 0.10 103 Framingham State Little East 7 7 137 157 95 107 122 95 324 0.10 104 Western Connecti Little East 9 9 121 128 124 105 100 120 325 0.10 105 Widener Middle Atlanti 8 9 99 100 125 104 87 134 325 0.10 106 Denison North Coast 6 8 32 66 102 89 136 103 328 0.10 107 Guilford Old Dominion 6 11 100 73 156 101 82 146 329 0.10 108 Washington & Jef Independent 8 7 125 122 93 110 126 93 329 0.10 109 Alvernia Middle Atlanti 8 9 123 117 120 112 94 128 334 0.10 110 Alfred Empire Eight 4 7 120 95 98 111 127 99 337 0.10 111 Clarkson Liberty League 4 10 87 48 126 108 93 137 338 0.10 112 Wilkes Middle Atlanti 9 8 101 126 101 119 113 109 341 0.10 113 Saint Vincent Independent 4 7 21 111 73 116 150 77 343 0.10 114 Cazenovia NEAC 11 4 126 173 37 127 177 40 344 0.10 115 Mount Holyoke NEWMAC 5 11 122 79 161 106 77 161 344 0.10 116 Centenary CSAC 7 5 131 156 61 124 166 59 349 0.10 117 Lasell Great Northeas 9 7 145 174 92 125 137 90 352 0.10 118 Fontbonne Independent 7 7 50 107 85 114 160 85 359 0.10 119 Maine-Farmington North Atlantic 5 4 166 183 51 132 176 52 360 0.10 120 Elmira Empire Eight 6 11 124 76 155 109 95 157 361 0.10 121 Husson North Atlantic 5 6 156 182 86 122 156 86 364 0.10 122 Southern Maine Little East 6 10 127 119 144 113 109 144 366 0.10 123 Morrisville SUNYAC 6 10 135 103 143 117 107 143 367 0.10 124 Univ of New Engl Comm. Coast 4 13 134 101 175 123 74 175 372 0.10 125 Greensboro USA South Atl. 7 8 92 114 117 118 147 110 375 0.10 126 Allegheny North Coast 5 10 84 78 140 115 120 141 376 0.10 127 Mount Saint Vinc Skyline 9 7 113 145 78 138 171 72 381 0.10 128 Frostburg State Independent 7 9 114 110 121 121 144 117 382 0.10 129 Linfield Independent 4 8 141 129 128 134 125 124 383 0.10 130 Wesley Capital 7 9 110 115 123 128 141 114 383 0.10 131 Bridgewater Old Dominion 7 9 117 141 130 141 124 121 386 0.10 132 Kean Skyline 6 11 130 131 142 129 115 142 386 0.10 133 Pacific (OR) Independent 6 7 111 139 104 126 155 105 386 0.10 134 Green Mountain Independent 5 5 162 181 68 145 175 67 387 0.10 135 Becker NEWLA 8 9 154 178 129 136 123 129 388 0.10 136 Smith NEWMAC 4 12 140 93 172 131 85 172 388 0.10 137 Colby-Sawyer Comm. Coast 3 11 142 113 166 142 88 166 396 0.10 138 Fitchburg State NEWLA 6 9 147 163 137 144 118 138 400 0.10 139 Marywood CSAC 7 9 136 148 134 133 133 135 401 0.10 140 Saint Joseph's ( Great Northeas 6 8 161 171 119 139 145 119 403 0.10 141 Hartwick Empire Eight 2 13 139 54 177 140 91 177 408 0.10 142 Arcadia Middle Atlanti 3 10 143 92 153 150 105 156 411 0.10 143 Keuka NEAC 4 7 138 150 107 146 157 108 411 0.10 144 Pomona-Pitzer Independent 3 13 148 105 179 149 86 179 414 0.10 145 Birmingham-South Independent 6 6 106 143 84 154 180 84 418 0.10 146 Neumann CSAC 6 11 133 130 163 143 119 163 425 0.10 147 Salve Regina Comm. Coast 3 11 149 116 167 147 111 167 425 0.10 148 Waynesburg Independent 2 6 172 153 79 167 178 80 425 0.10 149 New Paltz SUNYAC 1 13 151 61 178 152 97 178 427 0.10 150 Sweet Briar Old Dominion 5 9 146 124 138 153 146 133 432 0.10 151 Bryn Mawr Centennial 4 13 128 75 158 135 140 159 434 0.10 152 King's Middle Atlanti 0 15 171 82 185 161 90 185 436 0.10 153 Simmons Great Northeas 3 8 167 162 132 151 153 132 436 0.10 154 Wells NEAC 5 7 152 165 106 158 173 107 438 0.10 155 Moravian Landmark 6 10 108 108 151 130 161 148 439 0.10 156 Mass.-Dartmouth Little East 6 11 144 135 162 148 130 162 440 0.10 157 Trine Independent 4 7 118 133 112 157 172 112 441 0.10 158 Ramapo Skyline 4 10 150 144 149 155 138 149 442 0.10 159 Misericordia Middle Atlanti 4 13 104 94 173 137 134 173 444 0.10 160 Oberlin North Coast 0 14 164 80 184 163 99 184 446 0.10 161 Rhode Island Col Little East 1 14 169 136 183 160 110 183 453 0.10 162 Nichols Comm. Coast 3 10 160 147 157 156 143 158 457 0.10 163 Pine Manor Great Northeas 3 8 173 180 131 164 170 131 465 0.10 164 Methodist USA South Atl. 4 9 112 146 148 162 158 151 471 0.10 165 Notre Dame (MD) CSAC 2 11 159 132 170 159 142 170 471 0.10 166 Hollins Old Dominion 1 10 175 118 160 166 151 155 472 0.10 167 Penn State-Abing Independent 2 9 158 175 115 182 182 113 477 0.10 168 Medaille Independent 2 8 163 161 135 170 174 136 480 0.10 169 Cedar Crest CSAC 6 10 157 169 150 168 165 152 485 0.10 170 Maritime Skyline 3 9 174 166 146 173 168 147 488 0.10 171 Shenandoah USA South Atl. 3 12 155 138 174 165 149 174 488 0.10 172 Immaculata CSAC 2 11 153 142 169 169 159 169 497 0.10 173 Saint Joseph Great Northeas 1 11 181 170 171 174 152 171 497 0.10 174 Elms NEWLA 1 14 182 172 182 177 139 182 498 0.10 175 Sage Skyline 1 9 176 154 152 176 169 153 498 0.10 176 Thomas NEWLA 1 13 184 176 180 171 148 180 499 0.10 177 Anna Maria Comm. Coast 2 11 177 168 168 172 162 168 502 0.10 178 Dallas Independent 2 11 170 140 159 175 167 160 502 0.10 179 North Central Independent 0 11 168 121 164 178 164 164 506 0.10 180 Ferrum USA South Atl. 3 9 165 167 145 179 183 145 507 0.10 181 Daniel Webster Independent 2 9 180 185 147 180 181 150 511 0.10 182 Trinity (DC) Independent 0 9 185 179 154 185 185 154 524 0.10 183 Lancaster Bible Independent 3 14 178 177 181 181 163 181 525 0.10 184 Polytechnic Skyline 0 10 179 160 165 183 179 165 527 0.10 185 Wilson NEAC 2 12 183 184 176 184 184 176 544 0.10