2006 NCAA Women's Division III
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 College of New J Independent 15 2 3 3 3 2 1 2 5 10.00 2 Gettysburg Centennial 21 1 4 10 2 1 3 1 5 11.00 3 Middlebury NESCAC 16 2 2 1 1 3 4 3 10 18.00 4 Salisbury Capital 17 2 1 8 4 4 5 4 13 48.00 5 Franklin & Marsh Centennial 15 5 13 9 9 6 2 6 14 2.00 6 Cortland SUNYAC 19 1 5 30 5 5 9 5 19 0.10 7 Bowdoin NESCAC 15 5 6 4 7 8 7 8 23 4.00 8 Amherst NESCAC 14 4 7 5 6 7 11 7 25 1.00 9 Rowan Independent 12 4 21 13 11 9 10 11 30 0.10 10 Colby NESCAC 14 4 8 14 8 10 15 9 34 2.00 11 Ursinus Centennial 12 6 32 18 19 11 8 16 35 0.10 12 Dickinson Centennial 13 5 19 23 20 13 14 13 40 0.10 13 Mary Washington Capital 14 6 16 21 23 18 6 18 42 1.00 14 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 16 4 18 43 12 15 18 12 45 0.10 15 Williams NESCAC 9 6 17 2 17 12 12 23 47 3.00 16 Messiah Middle Atlanti 15 6 26 27 25 14 13 24 51 0.10 17 Union Liberty League 13 5 23 20 15 17 16 25 58 0.10 18 St. Mary's (MD) Capital 13 4 25 29 13 22 32 15 69 0.10 19 Hamilton Liberty League 12 5 24 31 29 24 23 33 80 0.10 20 William Smith Liberty League 10 6 31 22 28 23 19 40 82 0.10 21 Colorado College Independent 10 7 27 17 27 19 40 26 85 0.10 22 Virginia Wesleya Old Dominion 14 4 37 66 16 27 43 20 90 0.10 23 Goucher Capital 9 7 36 16 45 26 17 48 91 0.10 24 Nazareth Empire Eight 14 1 14 65 10 16 65 10 91 0.10 25 Swarthmore Centennial 14 5 48 77 26 35 37 21 93 0.10 26 Claremont-Mudd-S Independent 10 5 51 57 38 34 27 35 96 0.10 27 Geneseo SUNYAC 11 3 28 51 22 20 61 17 98 0.10 28 Tufts NESCAC 10 5 11 12 14 21 57 22 100 0.10 29 Skidmore Liberty League 12 4 20 39 24 25 50 28 103 0.10 30 Springfield NEWMAC 12 6 38 56 33 31 33 39 103 0.10 31 McDaniel Centennial 7 8 40 24 66 30 20 58 108 0.10 32 Endicott Comm. Coast 17 3 53 119 21 29 63 19 111 0.10 33 Wesleyan (CT) NESCAC 9 8 34 15 40 33 30 49 112 0.10 34 Cabrini Penn. (PAC) 12 7 57 89 48 46 24 43 113 0.10 35 Montclair State Skyline 15 3 22 87 18 28 74 14 116 0.10 36 Eastern Penn. (PAC) 12 6 56 103 52 41 34 45 120 0.10 37 Christopher Newp USA South Atl. 11 8 63 49 60 37 21 64 122 0.10 38 Plymouth State Little East 13 6 50 76 37 32 54 37 123 0.10 39 Catholic (DC) Capital 9 6 45 41 46 40 36 51 127 0.10 40 Brockport SUNYAC 10 5 44 60 44 36 58 36 130 0.10 41 Lycoming Middle Atlanti 14 4 35 79 34 38 67 27 132 0.10 42 Trinity (CT) NESCAC 5 9 39 6 58 44 22 71 137 0.10 43 Muhlenberg Centennial 10 6 49 53 43 45 53 41 139 0.10 44 Bates NESCAC 6 7 33 19 42 42 49 50 141 0.10 45 Scranton Middle Atlanti 11 6 41 64 55 43 62 47 152 0.10 46 St. Lawrence Liberty League 7 7 47 32 56 51 41 61 153 0.10 47 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 9 8 68 62 67 53 31 70 154 0.10 48 Rochester Liberty League 6 8 46 26 73 48 29 80 157 0.10 49 Wheaton NEWMAC 9 7 55 68 57 55 56 55 166 0.10 50 Buffalo State SUNYAC 8 9 91 44 74 67 28 72 167 0.10 51 Hartwick Empire Eight 10 9 76 55 79 54 35 81 170 0.10 52 Drew Middle Atlanti 11 8 29 48 76 39 75 59 173 0.10 53 Washington Colle Centennial 7 10 86 50 98 69 25 83 177 0.10 54 Roanoke Old Dominion 10 8 62 73 78 63 47 75 185 0.10 55 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 12 3 9 52 32 47 107 32 186 0.10 56 Western New Engl NEWLA 13 5 70 137 41 59 85 42 186 0.10 57 Connecticut Coll NESCAC 4 11 61 7 82 66 26 95 187 0.10 58 Greensboro USA South Atl. 10 6 58 74 54 50 81 56 187 0.10 59 Methodist USA South Atl. 11 4 12 110 31 49 113 30 192 0.10 60 St. John Fisher Empire Eight 7 9 67 40 90 56 39 101 196 0.10 61 Susquehanna Middle Atlanti 6 9 64 35 97 72 38 89 199 0.10 62 Denison North Coast 8 8 59 11 75 52 79 73 204 0.10 63 FDU-Florham Middle Atlanti 12 5 42 96 47 62 99 44 205 0.10 64 Colby-Sawyer Comm. Coast 11 5 93 129 49 61 95 52 208 0.10 65 Haverford Centennial 7 10 101 69 100 75 42 93 210 0.10 66 Frostburg State Independent 6 11 65 25 114 60 44 110 214 0.10 67 Eastern Connecti Little East 9 8 52 80 71 68 78 74 220 0.10 68 Lynchburg Old Dominion 7 6 85 85 63 71 91 60 222 0.10 69 Wooster North Coast 11 3 15 54 35 57 132 34 223 0.10 70 Fredonia SUNYAC 8 6 88 59 50 58 124 46 228 0.10 71 King's Middle Atlanti 9 6 73 100 62 80 92 57 229 0.10 72 Utica Empire Eight 8 7 79 88 59 84 69 76 229 0.10 73 Babson NEWMAC 10 8 72 75 81 65 86 84 235 0.10 74 Oneonta SUNYAC 6 11 82 46 125 70 45 124 239 0.10 75 Curry Comm. Coast 13 7 74 142 69 64 114 67 245 0.10 76 Neumann Penn. (PAC) 11 5 83 138 51 85 108 53 246 0.10 77 Elmira Empire Eight 11 7 60 91 61 73 110 65 248 0.10 78 Roger Williams Comm. Coast 11 9 112 130 101 77 72 99 248 0.10 79 Stevens Skyline 5 11 95 45 126 89 48 112 249 0.10 80 Elizabethtown Middle Atlanti 6 11 81 36 131 76 46 129 251 0.10 81 Gordon Comm. Coast 8 8 111 113 87 94 66 92 252 0.10 82 Rensselaer Liberty League 4 10 94 38 116 78 52 126 256 0.10 83 New England Coll Comm. Coast 9 8 96 116 89 81 90 88 259 0.10 84 Redlands Independent 11 4 80 118 39 93 131 38 262 0.10 85 Notre Dame (MD) Atlantic Women 12 4 71 125 36 95 137 31 263 0.10 86 Allegheny North Coast 9 7 30 33 80 74 112 79 265 0.10 87 Gwynedd-Mercy Penn. (PAC) 9 8 106 122 88 96 83 86 265 0.10 88 Massachusetts-Da Little East 9 7 105 132 77 90 97 78 265 0.10 89 Wellesley NEWMAC 8 9 84 70 99 83 80 103 266 0.10 90 Keene State Little East 8 9 69 93 92 79 101 87 267 0.10 91 Vassar Liberty League 7 8 78 82 85 88 87 94 269 0.10 92 Ithaca Empire Eight 2 11 100 28 129 92 51 131 274 0.10 93 Mount Holyoke NEWMAC 8 10 90 84 123 82 71 122 275 0.10 94 Mount Saint Vinc Skyline 9 10 110 106 108 105 64 107 276 0.10 95 Kean Skyline 6 8 66 92 83 87 115 77 279 0.10 96 Worcester State NEWLA 9 6 120 148 64 102 125 62 289 0.10 97 Guilford Old Dominion 5 11 107 72 130 101 59 130 290 0.10 98 Sweet Briar Old Dominion 5 9 102 95 105 106 76 109 291 0.10 99 Saint Vincent Independent 4 6 10 34 53 98 141 54 293 0.10 100 Alvernia Penn. (PAC) 8 6 77 141 68 100 128 66 294 0.10 101 Villa Julie Independent 6 9 75 81 103 86 106 102 294 0.10 102 Oswego SUNYAC 4 10 97 63 119 108 68 119 295 0.10 103 Averett USA South Atl. 10 7 43 121 65 107 126 63 296 0.10 104 Manhattanville Skyline 7 9 103 99 111 97 88 111 296 0.10 105 Univ of New Engl Comm. Coast 7 9 116 126 110 99 84 113 296 0.10 106 MIT NEWMAC 4 8 92 101 104 103 94 104 301 0.10 107 Widener Middle Atlanti 3 12 99 58 147 109 55 141 305 0.10 108 Bryn Mawr Centennial 5 13 119 86 138 114 60 135 309 0.10 109 Salve Regina Comm. Coast 6 10 123 128 128 111 70 128 309 0.10 110 Keuka Independent 5 2 128 152 30 132 154 29 315 0.10 111 York Capital 5 11 54 61 117 91 105 120 316 0.10 112 Bridgewater Stat Independent 4 9 121 90 113 104 100 117 321 0.10 113 Southern Maine Little East 5 10 133 114 120 110 89 125 324 0.10 114 Shenandoah USA South Atl. 6 8 109 105 102 113 117 100 330 0.10 115 Clarkson Liberty League 4 12 115 71 139 115 73 145 333 0.10 116 Castleton State NEWLA 6 7 135 149 86 119 140 85 344 0.10 117 Kenyon North Coast 3 9 98 47 107 118 121 106 345 0.10 118 Potsdam SUNYAC 3 13 125 98 148 122 82 148 352 0.10 119 Farmingdale Skyline 2 9 114 111 94 124 133 96 353 0.10 120 Wesley Penn. (PAC) 5 9 127 127 112 121 118 114 353 0.10 121 Moravian Middle Atlanti 2 14 134 83 154 125 77 154 356 0.10 122 Rochester Inst o Empire Eight 4 12 118 97 144 117 93 146 356 0.10 123 Dallas Independent 3 8 113 123 93 130 139 90 359 0.10 124 Linfield Independent 1 5 137 108 72 146 146 68 360 0.10 125 Lasell NEWLA 7 8 131 154 95 126 138 97 361 0.10 126 Bridgewater Old Dominion 5 11 132 107 134 129 103 134 366 0.10 127 Marymount Capital 3 14 108 42 149 112 104 150 366 0.10 128 Medaille Independent 2 7 117 150 70 145 153 69 367 0.10 129 Oberlin North Coast 4 10 89 78 124 127 119 123 369 0.10 130 Wilkes Middle Atlanti 4 10 104 115 121 120 134 115 369 0.10 131 Rosemont Penn. (PAC) 6 11 122 134 127 116 127 127 370 0.10 132 Western Connecti Little East 2 14 144 104 155 123 96 155 374 0.10 133 Thomas NEWLA 1 6 155 153 84 148 147 82 377 0.10 134 Nichols Comm. Coast 3 11 145 143 140 137 102 139 378 0.10 135 Puget Sound Independent 3 8 124 112 109 134 136 108 378 0.10 136 Smith NEWMAC 3 13 130 102 152 128 98 152 378 0.10 137 Emerson NEWLA 3 7 151 151 91 141 148 91 380 0.10 138 Whittier Independent 0 10 148 67 137 133 109 138 380 0.10 139 Ferrum USA South Atl. 4 9 136 117 106 139 142 105 386 0.10 140 Regis (MA) Comm. Coast 0 10 152 124 136 138 116 137 391 0.10 141 Misericordia Penn. (PAC) 4 12 138 120 146 136 111 147 394 0.10 142 North Carolina W USA South Atl. 3 12 129 109 141 131 123 140 394 0.10 143 Wittenberg North Coast 3 11 87 37 145 135 120 144 399 0.10 144 Saint Joseph Great Northeas 2 7 153 155 96 155 155 98 408 0.10 145 Immaculata Penn. (PAC) 2 10 146 136 132 142 135 132 409 0.10 146 Chestnut Hill Atlantic Women 4 10 126 146 118 144 149 118 411 0.10 147 Rhode Island Col Little East 3 13 142 133 151 140 122 151 413 0.10 148 Hollins Old Dominion 1 11 149 94 143 143 129 143 415 0.10 149 Hood Atlantic Women 3 10 139 145 122 150 151 121 422 0.10 150 Arcadia Penn. (PAC) 1 11 140 144 133 147 145 133 425 0.10 151 Pine Manor Great Northeas 0 8 156 156 115 156 156 116 428 0.10 152 Elms NEWLA 2 11 147 147 142 149 143 142 434 0.10 153 Cedar Crest Penn. (PAC) 1 15 150 140 156 153 130 156 439 0.10 154 Cazenovia Independent 1 11 143 131 135 152 152 136 440 0.10 155 Centenary Skyline 1 14 141 139 153 151 144 153 448 0.10 156 Wells Atlantic Women 0 13 154 135 150 154 150 149 453 0.10