2005 NCAA Women's Division III
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 College of New J Independent 15 2 4 2 3 1 1 2 4 22.00 2 Middlebury NESCAC 16 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 5 47.00 3 Salisbury Capital 17 1 3 6 2 3 4 3 10 26.00 4 Gettysburg Centennial 16 4 6 7 6 4 3 4 11 4.00 5 Bowdoin NESCAC 15 4 9 5 4 5 5 8 18 1.00 6 Amherst NESCAC 12 4 14 3 5 6 9 7 22 0.10 7 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 15 4 17 31 10 10 8 11 29 0.10 8 Cortland SUNYAC 18 2 7 36 8 9 16 6 31 0.10 9 Franklin & Marsh Centennial 14 3 12 25 11 8 15 10 33 0.10 10 Colby NESCAC 11 5 20 10 13 12 10 14 36 0.10 11 Stevens Knickerbocker 15 3 18 27 9 11 19 9 39 0.10 12 St. Mary's (MD) Capital 10 6 26 11 18 13 7 20 40 0.10 13 Williams NESCAC 11 5 15 12 14 14 13 13 40 0.10 14 Union Liberty League 13 4 16 28 19 15 14 17 46 0.10 15 Drew Middle Atlanti 14 6 28 38 28 19 11 22 52 0.10 16 Colorado College Independent 12 2 1 24 7 7 42 5 54 0.10 17 Ursinus Centennial 9 6 31 20 27 20 22 24 66 0.10 18 McDaniel Centennial 12 6 27 29 22 17 25 25 67 0.10 19 Geneseo SUNYAC 14 2 21 68 12 16 40 12 68 0.10 20 Messiah Middle Atlanti 15 4 25 47 23 18 31 21 70 0.10 21 Mary Washington Capital 7 7 39 14 35 27 18 35 80 0.10 22 Goucher Capital 9 7 29 21 53 25 12 45 82 0.10 23 Wesleyan (CT) NESCAC 7 8 36 4 29 26 17 42 85 0.10 24 Tufts NESCAC 8 7 32 13 24 32 24 31 87 0.10 25 Rowan Independent 7 9 51 8 65 21 6 62 89 0.10 26 Denison North Coast 9 4 53 9 38 23 39 29 91 0.10 27 Skidmore Liberty League 12 4 30 41 17 28 49 16 93 0.10 28 Plymouth State Little East 13 5 45 86 25 22 45 27 94 0.10 29 Nazareth Empire Eight 14 3 24 70 15 30 51 15 96 0.10 30 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 10 6 47 55 36 43 28 28 99 0.10 31 Dickinson Centennial 10 6 40 32 31 34 33 34 101 0.10 32 Catholic (DC) Capital 11 4 37 43 16 36 47 19 102 0.10 33 Eastern Connecti Little East 13 7 50 53 40 33 27 43 103 0.10 34 Trinity (CT) NESCAC 8 7 23 16 37 31 29 47 107 0.10 35 St. Lawrence Liberty League 9 5 46 37 45 29 35 46 110 0.10 36 Cabrini Penn. (PAC) 12 7 63 97 33 48 32 38 118 0.10 37 Hamilton Liberty League 9 7 34 30 47 38 26 58 122 0.10 38 Wheaton NEWMAC 11 5 38 63 26 42 54 32 128 0.10 39 William Smith Liberty League 7 8 48 26 69 37 20 71 128 0.10 40 Oswego SUNYAC 11 6 43 61 42 46 43 41 130 0.10 41 Scranton Middle Atlanti 12 5 35 50 39 39 57 37 133 0.10 42 Springfield NEWMAC 12 6 49 79 44 40 46 49 135 0.10 43 Ithaca Empire Eight 10 6 52 42 50 47 37 52 136 0.10 44 Bates NESCAC 7 9 42 18 56 49 23 66 138 0.10 45 Montclair State Knickerbocker 11 6 19 51 58 35 65 40 140 0.10 46 Frostburg State Independent 7 10 75 15 83 45 21 81 147 0.10 47 Virginia Wesleya Old Dominion 12 5 56 90 46 50 61 39 150 0.10 48 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 12 4 5 23 30 24 109 26 159 0.10 49 Brockport SUNYAC 9 6 57 52 59 52 58 55 165 0.10 50 Lynchburg Old Dominion 10 4 74 87 34 54 83 30 167 0.10 51 Haverford Centennial 10 7 59 81 57 58 52 59 169 0.10 52 Muhlenberg Centennial 8 7 66 64 60 64 50 61 175 0.10 53 Endicott Comm. Coast 13 5 73 122 43 55 80 44 179 0.10 54 Claremont-Mudd-S Independent 14 4 13 101 20 41 122 18 181 0.10 55 Sweet Briar Old Dominion 10 6 41 107 66 61 69 56 186 0.10 56 Wooster North Coast 9 4 8 22 48 44 97 50 191 0.10 57 Connecticut Coll NESCAC 5 11 64 19 89 60 30 107 197 0.10 58 Widener Middle Atlanti 8 6 68 72 72 59 70 68 197 0.10 59 Eastern Penn. (PAC) 10 7 96 116 77 63 66 74 203 0.10 60 Gordon Comm. Coast 9 7 100 111 80 66 63 75 204 0.10 61 Kean Knickerbocker 10 6 67 88 54 53 103 48 204 0.10 62 Marymount Capital 7 8 81 58 74 68 55 82 205 0.10 63 Rensselaer Liberty League 6 7 58 44 84 57 68 83 208 0.10 64 St. John Fisher Empire Eight 7 9 76 57 110 67 34 110 211 0.10 65 Rochester Liberty League 6 10 69 39 115 62 36 116 214 0.10 66 Manhattanville Knickerbocker 4 9 102 45 114 74 41 101 216 0.10 67 Keene State Little East 10 9 71 93 100 51 67 100 218 0.10 68 Univ of New Engl Comm. Coast 10 7 98 118 79 70 72 80 222 0.10 69 Swarthmore Centennial 10 8 55 74 71 56 95 72 223 0.10 70 Christopher Newp USA South Atl. 7 9 80 65 102 76 48 103 227 0.10 71 Susquehanna Middle Atlanti 7 9 77 49 117 72 44 111 227 0.10 72 Gwynedd-Mercy Penn. (PAC) 11 5 83 134 49 78 107 51 236 0.10 73 Colby-Sawyer Comm. Coast 10 7 93 123 76 84 77 78 239 0.10 74 Vassar Liberty League 8 9 65 67 108 69 62 112 243 0.10 75 MIT NEWMAC 6 5 78 114 64 75 105 65 245 0.10 76 Notre Dame (MD) Atlantic Women 9 5 70 119 51 73 119 53 245 0.10 77 Hartwick Empire Eight 5 9 91 62 104 86 53 108 247 0.10 78 Wittenberg North Coast 6 8 60 40 82 80 84 85 249 0.10 79 Buffalo State SUNYAC 6 6 85 76 67 89 94 67 250 0.10 80 Shenandoah USA South Atl. 11 5 61 115 52 82 115 54 251 0.10 81 Oneonta SUNYAC 3 11 90 34 132 83 38 131 252 0.10 82 Allegheny North Coast 8 6 11 48 61 65 126 63 254 0.10 83 Babson NEWMAC 7 11 82 59 119 71 60 123 254 0.10 84 New England Coll Comm. Coast 8 8 99 117 97 95 71 97 263 0.10 85 Western New Engl NEWLA 11 8 92 131 91 87 86 90 263 0.10 86 Hood Atlantic Women 7 3 125 146 32 90 141 33 264 0.10 87 Redlands Independent 9 7 72 91 81 81 106 77 264 0.10 88 King's Middle Atlanti 11 7 54 109 62 77 132 60 269 0.10 89 Bridgewater Stat NEWLA 4 7 107 95 88 94 89 91 274 0.10 90 Elizabethtown Middle Atlanti 6 10 94 66 125 97 59 120 276 0.10 91 Massachusetts-Da Little East 7 7 109 120 86 92 99 86 277 0.10 92 Mount Holyoke NEWMAC 9 8 87 112 95 85 101 94 280 0.10 93 Southern Maine Little East 4 9 119 102 118 93 75 117 285 0.10 94 Linfield Independent 6 5 101 110 63 99 124 64 287 0.10 95 Western Connecti Little East 6 10 116 84 129 79 78 132 289 0.10 96 Roanoke Old Dominion 5 11 97 69 133 101 56 133 290 0.10 97 Greensboro USA South Atl. 7 7 62 92 75 102 113 76 291 0.10 98 Neumann Penn. (PAC) 8 8 104 121 96 100 96 96 292 0.10 99 Wellesley NEWMAC 7 10 95 78 111 88 82 122 292 0.10 100 Lycoming Middle Atlanti 5 8 79 85 109 96 92 105 293 0.10 101 Wesley Penn. (PAC) 7 8 115 125 101 103 91 102 296 0.10 102 Keuka Independent 4 1 122 153 21 125 153 23 301 0.10 103 Mount Saint Vinc Independent 10 4 10 143 41 120 146 36 302 0.10 104 Rhode Island Col Little East 8 7 113 139 85 105 114 84 303 0.10 105 Bryn Mawr Centennial 3 12 121 56 136 109 64 135 308 0.10 106 Kenyon North Coast 5 8 33 33 94 104 116 88 308 0.10 107 Guilford Old Dominion 5 9 88 73 106 106 104 99 309 0.10 108 Medaille Independent 3 6 124 124 70 108 138 70 316 0.10 109 Trinity (DC) Atlantic Women 6 6 117 147 55 111 148 57 316 0.10 110 Utica Empire Eight 6 8 103 113 92 115 110 95 320 0.10 111 Elmira Empire Eight 5 10 106 105 130 113 79 129 321 0.10 112 Washington Colle Centennial 3 14 84 35 135 98 90 136 324 0.10 113 Puget Sound Independent 8 9 86 94 98 91 137 98 326 0.10 114 Elms NEWLA 9 6 131 149 68 122 136 69 327 0.10 115 Potsdam SUNYAC 4 10 118 106 122 123 81 124 328 0.10 116 FDU-Florham Middle Atlanti 6 10 89 96 131 110 93 127 330 0.10 117 Moravian Middle Atlanti 3 12 123 82 145 114 74 144 332 0.10 118 Curry Comm. Coast 8 9 112 141 113 117 102 114 333 0.10 119 Clarkson Liberty League 3 12 114 75 143 118 73 143 334 0.10 120 Fredonia SUNYAC 6 9 44 60 93 107 135 93 335 0.10 121 Methodist USA South Atl. 8 9 22 108 90 112 140 89 341 0.10 122 Lasell NEWLA 7 6 130 150 73 127 143 73 343 0.10 123 Alvernia Penn. (PAC) 6 9 110 138 87 116 142 87 345 0.10 124 Whittier Independent 0 13 139 46 150 132 76 149 357 0.10 125 Villa Julie Independent 1 12 127 54 144 126 85 147 358 0.10 126 Smith NEWMAC 2 13 128 98 148 124 87 150 361 0.10 127 Alfred Empire Eight 0 7 141 71 105 139 118 106 363 0.10 128 Dallas Independent 1 7 135 83 99 140 131 92 363 0.10 129 Bridgewater Old Dominion 2 14 105 100 137 119 111 137 367 0.10 130 Hollins Old Dominion 1 9 147 99 126 128 120 121 369 0.10 131 Rochester Inst o Empire Eight 1 13 126 77 153 133 88 152 373 0.10 132 Centenary Knickerbocker 0 12 133 80 142 135 100 140 375 0.10 133 Rosemont Penn. (PAC) 3 12 138 130 146 131 98 146 375 0.10 134 Cedar Crest Penn. (PAC) 5 9 134 140 120 130 130 118 378 0.10 135 Thomas NEWLA 0 5 153 152 78 152 150 79 381 0.10 136 Roger Williams Comm. Coast 3 11 132 128 138 136 112 138 386 0.10 137 Oberlin North Coast 2 12 120 17 147 121 121 145 387 0.10 138 Ferrum USA South Atl. 1 10 146 104 128 137 125 130 392 0.10 139 Salve Regina Comm. Coast 4 9 108 132 123 129 139 125 393 0.10 140 Regis (MA) Comm. Coast 0 8 149 127 121 147 129 119 395 0.10 141 Wilkes Middle Atlanti 1 13 111 103 140 134 123 139 396 0.10 142 Arcadia Penn. (PAC) 2 11 129 129 124 138 134 126 398 0.10 143 Castleton State NEWLA 3 8 145 148 112 143 145 113 401 0.10 144 Misericordia Penn. (PAC) 3 10 136 137 134 141 127 134 402 0.10 145 Chestnut Hill Atlantic Women 3 13 144 133 151 144 108 151 403 0.10 146 Emerson NEWLA 1 7 150 151 103 151 151 104 406 0.10 147 Saint Joseph Independent 0 7 151 126 107 149 149 109 407 0.10 148 Immaculata Penn. (PAC) 1 11 148 136 139 146 128 141 415 0.10 149 Nichols Comm. Coast 1 13 140 135 152 145 117 153 415 0.10 150 Cazenovia Independent 2 8 137 142 116 150 152 115 417 0.10 151 Worcester State NEWLA 2 10 142 145 127 142 147 128 417 0.10 152 Averett USA South Atl. 0 14 143 89 141 148 133 142 423 0.10 153 Wells Atlantic Women 0 12 152 144 149 153 144 148 445 0.10