2018 NCAA Men's Division III
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 RIT Liberty 21 1 1 8 1 1 6 1 8 42.00 2 Tufts NESCAC 18 2 3 4 3 2 4 3 9 10.00 3 Gettysburg Centennial 19 3 10 10 6 3 5 2 10 0.10 4 Salisbury Capital 20 4 6 13 2 5 1 5 11 1.00 5 Wesleyan NESCAC 19 3 5 1 4 4 3 4 11 3.00 6 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 17 4 16 46 10 7 2 7 16 0.10 7 Dickinson Centennial 17 4 7 9 7 6 7 9 22 2.00 8 York Capital 19 3 4 19 5 10 11 6 27 15.00 9 Amherst NESCAC 15 4 2 2 8 8 10 10 28 17.00 10 Denison North Coast 16 4 11 38 15 9 8 11 28 2.00 11 Ithaca Liberty 16 4 21 17 13 12 14 15 41 0.10 12 Christopher Newp Capital 15 5 18 26 16 20 12 14 46 0.10 13 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 15 5 12 29 11 18 18 16 52 0.10 14 Cabrini CSAC 17 3 14 59 9 24 23 8 55 0.10 15 Illinois Wesleya CCIW 16 4 26 97 27 16 25 18 59 0.10 16 Rhodes Southern 14 3 52 90 21 13 31 17 61 0.10 17 Aurora Midwest 19 2 48 132 14 14 38 12 64 0.10 18 Roanoke Old Dominion 14 6 20 34 23 19 16 31 66 0.10 19 Stevens Empire 8 18 3 13 50 12 17 36 13 66 1.00 20 Stevenson MAC-Commonwlth 12 7 17 32 29 25 13 33 71 0.10 21 Berry Southern 12 4 40 96 41 21 24 29 74 0.10 22 Springfield NEWMAC 13 6 31 28 37 22 17 45 84 0.10 23 Franklin & Marsh Centennial 12 4 8 16 17 15 51 22 88 3.00 24 Cortland SUNYAC 12 7 28 30 45 33 19 39 91 0.10 25 Lynchburg Old Dominion 12 9 9 18 43 29 9 58 96 2.00 26 Middlebury NESCAC 9 7 25 3 34 34 22 44 100 2.00 27 Rensselaer Liberty 12 4 23 36 32 26 46 28 100 0.10 28 St. Lawrence Liberty 12 5 15 31 38 31 41 32 104 0.10 29 Coast Guard NEWMAC 14 4 35 70 30 23 55 27 105 0.10 30 Williams NESCAC 9 8 24 6 57 30 15 63 108 0.10 31 Bates NESCAC 8 8 22 5 48 40 21 53 114 0.10 32 Merchant Marine Skyline 14 3 58 110 22 28 63 23 114 0.10 33 Hampden-Sydney Old Dominion 13 5 33 51 24 32 49 34 115 0.10 34 John Carroll OAC 13 5 46 106 51 27 47 42 116 0.10 35 Carthage CCIW 13 6 88 136 69 43 26 56 125 0.10 36 Haverford Centennial 7 8 36 15 72 38 20 76 134 0.10 37 Connecticut Coll NESCAC 10 6 29 22 42 36 53 47 136 0.10 38 Colorado College Independent 13 2 30 55 18 11 105 21 137 0.10 39 Elmhurst CCIW 13 3 74 146 31 35 77 25 137 0.10 40 Washington Colle Centennial 8 7 32 23 61 42 33 62 137 0.10 41 Concordia-Wiscon Midwest 13 6 124 157 71 49 35 57 141 0.10 42 Montclair State Independent 9 6 71 47 65 46 34 66 146 0.10 43 Eastern MAC-Freedom 12 7 47 56 52 52 44 51 147 0.10 44 Birmingham-South Southern 11 6 90 108 77 37 57 54 148 0.10 45 Kenyon North Coast 9 6 81 73 58 47 58 43 148 0.10 46 Keene State Little East 12 5 44 72 33 44 80 37 161 0.10 47 Bowdoin NESCAC 8 7 19 7 49 55 52 55 162 0.10 48 Sewanee Southern 10 7 89 91 98 48 40 78 166 0.10 49 Union Liberty 9 6 27 24 60 45 59 67 171 0.10 50 Muhlenberg Centennial 11 7 53 53 66 61 54 59 174 0.10 51 Skidmore Liberty 8 8 38 20 82 60 28 89 177 0.10 52 Stockton Independent 12 4 54 75 46 41 93 46 180 0.10 53 Western New Engl CCC 13 7 37 44 56 39 75 71 185 0.10 54 Baldwin Wallace OAC 11 5 77 145 62 54 72 64 190 0.10 55 Messiah MAC-Commonwlth 10 6 50 58 54 58 85 50 193 0.10 56 Ohio Northern OAC 14 3 67 147 28 50 114 30 194 0.10 57 Frostburg State Capital 10 9 42 35 74 72 32 91 195 0.10 58 New England Coll North Atlantic 16 5 129 181 35 73 92 35 200 0.10 59 Albion MIAA 10 8 101 121 115 65 37 100 202 0.10 60 Elizabethtown Landmark 10 10 61 42 109 57 27 119 203 0.10 61 Southern Virgini Capital 10 8 79 64 90 79 45 82 206 0.10 62 Wooster North Coast 8 7 83 80 100 59 68 79 206 0.10 63 St. John Fisher Empire 8 12 6 62 82 63 69 70 70 209 0.10 64 Babson NEWMAC 9 7 45 48 105 51 71 96 218 0.10 65 Susquehanna Landmark 12 7 60 66 64 62 83 73 218 0.10 66 Oswego SUNYAC 10 5 68 77 67 53 109 60 222 0.10 67 Misericordia MAC-Freedom 14 2 57 113 20 56 149 20 225 0.10 68 Benedictine Midwest 11 7 138 180 94 87 56 84 227 0.10 69 Wittenberg North Coast 6 9 112 68 154 68 39 122 229 0.10 70 Beloit Midwest 8 8 164 151 131 85 50 109 244 0.10 71 Geneseo SUNYAC 7 7 64 39 88 75 79 92 246 0.10 72 MIT NEWMAC 8 8 69 61 135 63 60 127 250 0.10 73 Colby NESCAC 5 7 51 11 70 92 87 75 254 0.10 74 Otterbein OAC 8 8 95 104 127 76 69 113 258 0.10 75 Mount Saint Mary Skyline 12 7 103 117 92 86 81 95 262 0.10 76 Saint Vincent ORLC 15 4 153 214 36 90 137 36 263 0.10 77 Kean Independent 12 6 122 116 75 84 112 68 264 0.10 78 Widener MAC-Commonwlth 7 11 56 45 148 93 29 145 267 0.10 79 Swarthmore Centennial 9 6 49 43 55 95 121 52 268 0.10 80 Scranton Landmark 10 7 55 76 104 70 96 103 269 0.10 81 Whittier Independent 5 9 97 71 137 66 100 105 271 0.10 82 Transylvania ORLC 12 7 136 169 87 88 91 93 272 0.10 83 Morrisville Stat NEAC 12 8 107 118 103 83 94 97 274 0.10 84 McDaniel Centennial 6 10 72 37 126 98 42 137 277 0.10 85 Clark NEWMAC 8 7 75 67 108 74 97 110 281 0.10 86 Huntingdon USA South 16 3 146 183 26 67 191 24 282 0.10 87 Lycoming MAC-Commonwlth 10 7 78 69 91 81 107 94 282 0.10 88 Goucher Landmark 10 7 94 83 89 91 108 85 284 0.10 89 Clarkson Liberty 6 9 39 27 141 99 61 130 290 0.10 90 Capital OAC 9 7 84 122 107 82 102 107 291 0.10 91 Centre Southern 7 8 119 131 139 96 73 129 298 0.10 92 Curry CCC 10 6 80 107 79 77 143 80 300 0.10 93 Alfred Empire 8 9 7 82 109 93 97 104 101 302 0.10 94 DePauw North Coast 7 11 120 92 187 110 43 149 302 0.10 95 Augustana CCIW 8 8 154 155 130 104 82 117 303 0.10 96 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 10 8 65 54 81 100 89 114 303 0.10 97 Hope MIAA 15 2 108 187 19 71 215 19 305 0.10 98 Hartwick Empire 8 9 5 76 88 53 105 139 65 309 0.10 99 Salve Regina CCC 11 7 93 101 97 80 131 98 309 0.10 100 Endicott CCC 7 11 43 33 156 78 64 172 314 0.10 101 Mary Washington Capital 7 10 59 41 134 114 65 140 319 0.10 102 Pfeiffer USA South 10 3 123 167 40 64 217 38 319 0.10 103 Wheaton NEWMAC 8 7 99 100 114 89 120 116 325 0.10 104 St. Joseph's (NY Skyline 7 6 118 144 99 118 110 99 327 0.10 105 Bryn Athyn NEAC 9 7 135 163 106 108 115 106 329 0.10 106 Guilford Old Dominion 9 8 92 98 102 112 95 123 330 0.10 107 MSOE Midwest 11 4 132 223 47 117 182 40 339 0.10 108 Norwich Great Northeas 12 6 152 177 76 106 160 74 340 0.10 109 Maritime Skyline 10 5 115 142 68 94 179 69 342 0.10 110 Catholic Landmark 8 8 98 74 132 109 99 135 343 0.10 111 Nazareth Empire 8 5 12 70 40 172 120 30 196 346 0.10 112 Oberlin North Coast 8 7 128 153 96 134 124 88 346 0.10 113 Trinity NESCAC 4 10 34 12 142 124 76 147 347 0.10 114 Gwynedd Mercy CSAC 10 4 110 123 39 115 186 48 349 0.10 115 Brevard USA South 9 3 157 193 44 102 207 41 350 0.10 116 Bridgewater Old Dominion 9 8 96 85 95 129 106 118 353 0.10 117 Southwestern Independent 9 7 131 135 112 107 142 104 353 0.10 118 Nichols CCC 11 6 111 143 78 119 166 77 362 0.10 119 Grove City ORLC 10 6 162 211 80 126 159 81 366 0.10 120 Ursinus Centennial 3 11 41 21 177 121 62 184 367 0.10 121 Eastern Connecti Little East 10 7 126 127 101 113 157 102 372 0.10 122 Oneonta SUNYAC 5 9 100 65 173 125 88 164 377 0.10 123 Plattsburgh SUNYAC 7 9 63 49 152 111 103 165 379 0.10 124 North Central (I CCIW 6 10 143 170 190 139 67 177 383 0.10 125 Piedmont USA South 9 8 149 179 128 128 123 133 384 0.10 126 Vassar Liberty 2 12 66 25 202 133 48 204 385 0.10 127 U. of New Englan CCC 9 9 87 93 147 101 133 152 386 0.10 128 King's MAC-Freedom 6 9 117 94 165 122 98 167 387 0.10 129 Roger Williams CCC 9 8 85 81 129 103 152 134 389 0.10 130 Castleton North Atlantic 10 8 180 190 116 123 145 125 393 0.10 131 Hilbert NEAC 9 6 170 218 84 132 177 86 395 0.10 132 Cornell College Midwest 7 7 184 212 117 142 153 108 403 0.10 133 Trine MIAA 10 6 141 205 83 149 173 83 405 0.10 134 Alma MIAA 7 11 148 133 199 143 78 186 407 0.10 135 Plymouth State Little East 8 10 147 120 180 116 119 180 415 0.10 136 Manhattanville MAC-Freedom 8 9 121 114 158 137 128 155 420 0.10 137 St. Mary's Capital 5 12 91 52 193 155 74 191 420 0.10 138 Mount Union OAC 6 9 165 161 168 135 117 169 421 0.10 139 Dubuque CCIW 8 9 189 198 155 145 129 150 424 0.10 140 Moravian Landmark 7 7 134 111 118 138 165 121 424 0.10 141 Hood MAC-Commonwlth 8 7 155 134 110 151 164 111 426 0.10 142 Keuka NEAC 9 6 175 200 85 148 192 87 427 0.10 143 Johnson & Wales Great Northeas 9 12 156 139 211 131 90 208 429 0.10 144 Lasell Great Northeas 8 7 140 156 111 144 174 112 430 0.10 145 Hamilton NESCAC 2 13 73 14 209 158 66 211 435 0.10 146 Shenandoah Old Dominion 7 9 125 87 136 161 127 151 439 0.10 147 Wentworth CCC 6 8 105 112 146 130 168 144 442 0.10 148 UMass Boston Little East 8 9 145 150 162 136 148 160 444 0.10 149 Mass. Maritime NEWMAC 6 8 150 124 145 147 155 143 445 0.10 150 Arcadia MAC-Commonwlth 6 9 106 79 150 152 134 161 447 0.10 151 Farmingdale Stat Skyline 9 8 109 141 133 127 190 136 453 0.10 152 Lebanon Valley MAC-Commonwlth 9 8 104 105 121 156 167 131 454 0.10 153 Dean College NECC 9 4 185 232 50 172 235 49 456 0.10 154 SUNY Poly NEAC 9 5 178 220 73 154 230 72 456 0.10 155 Virginia Wesleya Old Dominion 4 12 130 63 206 159 84 213 456 0.10 156 Southern Maine Little East 8 9 166 172 160 141 163 158 462 0.10 157 Hendrix Southern 6 11 160 152 203 150 113 200 463 0.10 158 Hanover ORLC 7 10 179 196 182 157 130 182 469 0.10 159 Monmouth (IL) Midwest 6 9 208 219 167 174 140 156 470 0.10 160 Washington & Jef ORLC 7 10 194 201 185 163 122 185 470 0.10 161 Wheelock NECC 1 0 236 242 25 202 242 26 470 0.10 162 Marywood CSAC 7 9 151 126 151 164 147 163 474 0.10 163 Brockport SUNYAC 5 9 86 60 170 146 158 171 475 0.10 164 Thiel ORLC 8 7 174 229 113 173 189 115 477 0.10 165 Hiram North Coast 6 8 193 173 124 177 183 120 480 0.10 166 Bard Liberty 3 11 142 57 197 169 116 198 483 0.10 167 Potsdam SUNYAC 4 11 116 78 205 153 126 209 488 0.10 168 SUNY Canton Independent 11 6 181 209 86 162 236 90 488 0.10 169 Marymount Capital 3 14 127 62 224 178 86 226 490 0.10 170 DeSales MAC-Freedom 5 10 102 99 194 166 136 193 495 0.10 171 U. of Northweste Independent 9 4 210 241 59 193 241 61 495 0.10 172 Wilkes MAC-Freedom 8 8 144 149 138 175 185 138 498 0.10 173 Fairleigh Dickin MAC-Freedom 5 9 133 95 171 168 161 173 502 0.10 174 Methodist USA South 6 10 161 164 189 180 141 188 509 0.10 175 Mount Ida Great Northeas 8 9 169 185 159 171 184 157 512 0.10 176 UMass Dartmouth Little East 8 10 163 159 181 160 171 181 512 0.10 177 Gordon CCC 5 10 139 115 195 167 156 194 517 0.10 178 Greensboro USA South 9 9 176 168 157 140 223 154 517 0.10 179 Utica Empire 8 6 9 182 125 163 176 178 166 520 0.10 180 Husson North Atlantic 6 7 197 235 119 186 211 124 521 0.10 181 Centenary CSAC 5 8 168 129 123 189 188 146 523 0.10 182 St. Joseph's (ME Great Northeas 8 9 177 184 161 170 194 159 523 0.10 183 Westminster (PA) ORLC 5 8 188 222 122 183 213 128 524 0.10 184 Emerson NEWMAC 5 11 191 119 208 165 154 206 525 0.10 185 Chatham ORLC 7 8 199 231 140 190 199 139 528 0.10 186 Heidelberg OAC 7 9 190 206 164 185 181 162 528 0.10 187 Western Connecti Little East 6 9 158 176 169 182 176 170 528 0.10 188 Drew Landmark 3 12 114 86 218 181 132 220 533 0.10 189 Neumann CSAC 5 10 172 137 183 188 150 197 535 0.10 190 Olivet MIAA 1 12 221 148 225 198 111 227 536 0.10 191 Wabash North Coast 2 13 195 138 226 197 118 223 538 0.10 192 Wesley Capital 3 12 171 84 207 200 135 205 540 0.10 193 Alfred State Allegheny Mtn. 6 9 207 227 143 194 214 141 549 0.10 194 Ferrum USA South 5 12 159 160 217 187 146 216 549 0.10 195 Randolph Old Dominion 1 16 201 103 241 212 101 242 555 0.10 196 Albright MAC-Commonwlth 5 10 113 89 186 184 180 192 556 0.10 197 Dallas Independent 6 7 209 213 120 199 232 126 557 0.10 198 William Peace USA South 5 10 186 178 149 179 233 148 560 0.10 199 Immaculata CSAC 4 12 167 130 214 204 144 218 566 0.10 200 Kalamazoo MIAA 3 9 203 182 179 195 193 179 567 0.10 201 Purchase Skyline 5 9 202 197 174 205 196 174 575 0.10 202 Maine Maritime North Atlantic 4 7 218 225 125 213 231 132 576 0.10 203 Carroll CCIW 2 12 227 189 221 207 151 219 577 0.10 204 Calvin MIAA 4 13 196 171 228 211 138 229 578 0.10 205 Oglethorpe Southern 1 11 224 166 204 206 170 202 578 0.10 206 Wilmington (OH) OAC 5 9 216 195 175 203 202 175 580 0.10 207 Franciscan Allegheny Mtn. 6 8 220 240 144 215 225 142 582 0.10 208 Rivier Great Northeas 6 10 173 191 192 191 201 190 582 0.10 209 Concordia U. Chi Midwest 1 15 237 203 242 217 125 241 583 0.10 210 Wells NEAC 4 9 212 207 153 196 234 153 583 0.10 211 Cazenovia NEAC 4 9 187 194 178 192 224 178 594 0.10 212 Marian Midwest 4 13 205 216 229 210 162 225 597 0.10 213 Delaware Valley MAC-Freedom 3 13 137 102 231 201 169 231 601 0.10 214 Emmanuel Great Northeas 3 12 183 158 219 208 175 221 604 0.10 215 Lyndon State North Atlantic 6 9 215 238 166 216 226 168 610 0.10 216 Elmira Empire 8 2 10 204 128 198 214 198 199 611 0.10 217 Muskingum OAC 3 13 222 204 232 220 172 232 624 0.10 218 Salem State Little East 3 12 198 174 220 209 197 222 628 0.10 219 Cobleskill NEAC 4 9 206 217 176 224 229 176 629 0.10 220 Becker NECC 3 13 225 202 230 219 187 230 636 0.10 221 Thomas North Atlantic 2 9 229 234 184 228 227 183 638 0.10 222 Fontbonne Midwest 2 13 232 215 222 222 204 217 643 0.10 223 Averett USA South 0 11 234 162 216 229 200 215 644 0.10 224 Mount St. Joseph ORLC 2 12 233 221 223 225 195 224 644 0.10 225 Mt. St. Vincent Skyline 2 11 217 192 213 230 203 212 645 0.10 226 Northland Colleg Independent 3 10 226 233 200 226 220 201 647 0.10 227 Anna Maria Great Northeas 4 13 192 188 227 218 205 228 651 0.10 228 Regis Great Northeas 4 11 211 208 212 227 218 210 655 0.10 229 Bethany ORLC 4 12 231 230 210 221 228 207 656 0.10 230 North Central (M Independent 1 9 238 237 191 234 238 189 661 0.10 231 Green Mountain North Atlantic 1 10 239 239 188 240 240 187 667 0.10 232 Medaille NEAC 1 11 235 224 215 233 221 214 668 0.10 233 Houghton Empire 8 1 14 213 154 239 223 209 238 670 0.10 234 Adrian MIAA 1 13 230 199 234 231 210 233 674 0.10 235 Albertus Magnus Great Northeas 2 10 219 210 201 235 237 203 675 0.10 236 Alvernia MAC-Commonwlth 2 14 200 140 237 232 206 237 675 0.10 237 Johnson State North Atlantic 0 9 241 236 196 242 239 195 676 0.10 238 Mitchell NECC 0 13 228 186 236 236 208 236 680 0.10 239 Keystone CSAC 0 13 223 165 233 237 212 234 683 0.10 240 Rosemont CSAC 1 14 214 175 238 238 216 239 693 0.10 241 Earlham ORLC 0 14 242 228 240 239 219 240 698 0.10 242 La Roche Allegheny Mtn. 0 13 240 226 235 241 222 235 698 0.10