2016 NCAA Men's Division I
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 Maryland Big Ten 17 3 2 2 1 1 3 1 5 12.00 2 North Carolina ACC 12 6 8 5 3 4 1 4 9 7.00 3 Notre Dame ACC 11 4 5 3 4 2 6 3 11 5.00 4 Brown Ivy 16 3 1 16 2 3 10 5 18 43.00 5 Syracuse ACC 12 5 3 7 6 7 5 6 18 4.00 6 Denver Big East 13 3 4 25 5 6 11 2 19 11.00 7 Loyola Patriot 14 4 11 15 8 5 12 7 24 1.00 8 Duke ACC 11 8 6 9 16 10 2 14 26 3.00 9 Marquette Big East 11 5 19 20 12 11 8 12 31 0.10 10 Yale Ivy 13 3 7 24 9 8 13 10 31 3.00 11 Navy Patriot 11 5 14 22 13 13 7 13 33 0.10 12 Johns Hopkins Big Ten 8 7 13 1 18 14 4 16 34 0.10 13 Albany America East 12 4 10 26 11 12 21 11 44 1.00 14 Air Force SoCon 15 3 29 54 7 15 23 9 47 0.10 15 Towson Colonial 16 3 15 34 10 9 30 8 47 2.00 16 Harvard Ivy 8 8 16 4 24 24 9 27 60 2.00 17 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 12 4 35 55 15 17 33 15 65 0.10 18 Virginia ACC 7 8 23 8 29 26 15 25 66 0.10 19 Richmond SoCon 11 5 33 47 22 21 29 17 67 0.10 20 Army Patriot 10 7 17 35 23 29 18 21 68 0.10 21 Rutgers Big Ten 11 5 18 32 14 20 31 18 69 0.10 22 Villanova Big East 9 5 9 17 19 16 32 22 70 0.10 23 Penn Ivy 8 7 25 14 25 27 16 29 72 1.00 24 Fairfield Colonial 9 8 32 27 36 23 14 37 74 0.10 25 Penn State Big Ten 8 7 20 10 26 25 20 30 75 2.00 26 Bryant Northeast 10 5 21 42 21 18 35 24 77 1.00 27 Bucknell Patriot 10 5 22 31 20 22 40 20 82 1.00 28 Ohio State Big Ten 7 8 26 21 33 33 22 32 87 0.10 29 Stony Brook America East 12 4 12 44 17 19 49 19 87 0.10 30 Drexel Colonial 6 9 30 23 42 35 17 41 93 0.10 31 High Point SoCon 9 6 41 49 31 28 37 28 93 0.10 32 Hartford America East 11 7 34 48 34 31 39 33 103 0.10 33 Princeton Ivy 5 8 37 13 38 39 26 38 103 0.10 34 Cornell Ivy 6 7 31 12 30 34 36 34 104 0.10 35 Hobart Northeast 10 7 44 45 37 32 41 35 108 0.10 36 Massachusetts Colonial 4 9 28 6 43 36 27 46 109 0.10 37 Providence Big East 7 9 38 29 39 41 28 40 109 0.10 38 Saint Joseph's Northeast 12 4 24 64 27 30 60 23 113 0.10 39 Boston U. Patriot 8 7 40 36 35 37 46 36 119 0.10 40 Bellarmine SoCon 6 9 45 52 50 43 34 45 122 0.10 41 Hofstra Colonial 9 6 27 40 32 38 53 31 122 1.00 42 Georgetown Big East 2 12 48 11 57 44 24 56 124 0.10 43 Robert Morris Northeast 7 8 42 53 47 40 42 47 129 0.10 44 Marist Metro Atlantic 9 7 43 65 40 42 54 39 135 0.10 45 Lehigh Patriot 6 9 39 33 45 45 48 48 141 0.10 46 St. John's Big East 2 12 56 19 59 55 25 63 143 0.10 47 Holy Cross Patriot 4 11 46 28 60 47 38 59 144 0.10 48 Sacred Heart Northeast 2 14 59 38 68 57 19 68 144 0.10 49 Michigan Big Ten 3 10 47 18 48 51 45 50 146 0.10 50 UMBC America East 4 10 52 37 55 46 43 57 146 0.10 51 Delaware Colonial 5 10 50 43 54 49 44 55 148 0.10 52 Vermont America East 9 8 36 57 41 50 58 44 152 0.10 53 Colgate Patriot 4 10 51 30 53 53 47 53 153 0.10 54 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 6 8 49 58 49 48 57 49 154 0.10 55 Binghamton America East 4 10 53 41 51 52 51 52 155 0.10 56 Mercer SoCon 5 8 55 56 46 54 62 43 159 0.10 57 Hampton Independent 0 5 70 70 28 70 70 26 166 0.10 58 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 7 7 54 68 44 58 69 42 169 0.10 59 Canisius Metro Atlantic 4 8 58 63 52 56 65 51 172 0.10 60 Detroit Metro Atlantic 2 10 60 51 61 59 55 58 172 0.10 61 Furman SoCon 2 11 57 46 63 60 52 62 174 0.10 62 Dartmouth Ivy 1 13 65 39 66 67 50 67 184 0.10 63 Siena Metro Atlantic 3 10 61 59 58 61 63 60 184 0.10 64 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 3 12 67 62 67 64 56 66 186 0.10 65 UMass Lowell America East 4 12 63 60 65 63 59 65 187 0.10 66 Wagner Northeast 6 9 66 69 56 66 68 54 188 0.10 67 Lafayette Patriot 3 11 62 50 64 62 64 64 190 0.10 68 Jacksonville SoCon 3 10 64 61 62 65 67 61 193 0.10 69 VMI SoCon 2 14 69 67 70 68 61 69 198 0.10 70 NJIT Independent 1 14 68 66 69 69 66 70 205 0.10