2015 NCAA Men's Division III
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 Tufts NESCAC 21 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 46.00 2 Gettysburg Centennial 20 1 5 18 3 3 3 2 8 2.00 3 RIT Liberty 21 1 2 16 2 2 4 3 9 23.00 4 Lynchburg Old Dominion 21 3 4 15 4 4 2 4 10 11.00 5 Amherst NESCAC 18 3 7 7 5 7 8 5 20 2.00 6 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 18 1 9 53 6 5 11 6 22 3.00 7 Stevenson MAC-Commonwlth 16 5 6 24 7 8 6 8 22 0.10 8 Cortland SUNYAC 16 5 10 10 10 6 7 10 23 0.10 9 Salisbury Capital 17 5 3 23 8 9 5 9 23 7.00 10 Endicott CCC 16 4 12 35 9 10 10 7 27 0.10 11 Middlebury NESCAC 13 6 13 1 11 11 9 13 33 1.00 12 Union Liberty 14 5 18 13 13 12 15 15 42 0.10 13 Western New Engl CCC 14 6 35 31 19 14 12 17 43 0.10 14 Ursinus Centennial 14 4 11 20 14 13 25 12 50 0.10 15 Denison North Coast 13 4 16 59 23 15 21 16 52 0.10 16 Roanoke Old Dominion 12 7 31 27 29 17 14 25 56 0.10 17 Bates NESCAC 11 6 8 4 18 19 13 27 59 3.00 18 Nazareth Empire 8 15 5 14 36 20 21 22 24 67 0.10 19 Messiah MAC-Commonwlth 12 5 56 57 27 24 23 28 75 0.10 20 Cabrini CSAC 13 6 15 50 17 36 19 22 77 0.10 21 Sewanee Southern 11 4 64 76 30 16 35 26 77 0.10 22 Eastern MAC-Freedom 15 4 22 55 16 20 52 14 86 1.00 23 Otterbein OAC 13 5 77 106 43 18 30 40 88 0.10 24 Albion MIAA 13 6 53 108 50 28 26 44 98 0.10 25 Wittenberg North Coast 9 6 63 72 68 27 24 48 99 0.10 26 Augustana CCIW 14 5 93 137 37 30 34 36 100 0.10 27 Springfield NEWMAC 11 8 40 44 65 25 17 61 103 0.10 28 Rensselaer Liberty 10 5 21 17 35 29 46 37 112 0.10 29 Montclair State Skyline 13 6 32 48 38 34 44 35 113 0.10 30 Emmanuel Great Northeas 13 5 111 134 34 26 51 39 116 0.10 31 Albright MAC-Commonwlth 13 4 37 61 21 37 63 20 120 0.10 32 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 12 7 30 33 53 32 42 47 121 0.10 33 Carthage CCIW 16 5 91 150 33 42 49 32 123 0.10 34 Alfred Empire 8 13 4 54 104 32 39 55 31 125 0.10 35 Keene State Little East 12 5 28 46 26 35 62 33 130 0.10 36 Aurora Midwest 14 8 73 99 77 31 31 69 131 0.10 37 Kenyon North Coast 9 7 55 82 70 57 27 51 135 0.10 38 Williams NESCAC 9 6 20 11 31 43 54 38 135 0.10 39 Capital OAC 14 3 114 167 22 55 68 18 141 0.10 40 Colby NESCAC 8 7 19 14 46 48 36 57 141 0.10 41 Hamilton NESCAC 8 8 29 5 47 52 20 70 142 0.10 42 Wesleyan NESCAC 9 7 17 8 41 49 39 54 142 0.10 43 York Capital 10 9 39 25 76 50 18 79 147 0.10 44 Ithaca Empire 8 13 5 24 49 15 23 108 19 150 0.10 45 Roger Williams CCC 13 5 49 68 36 40 80 30 150 0.10 46 Elizabethtown Landmark 14 3 52 96 24 33 97 23 153 0.10 47 Frostburg State Capital 16 3 23 66 12 41 104 11 156 0.10 48 St. Lawrence Liberty 9 8 27 26 79 51 38 73 162 0.10 49 Virginia Wesleya Old Dominion 10 6 78 54 67 53 56 53 162 0.10 50 Centre Southern 9 5 112 135 62 46 58 63 167 0.10 51 Plattsburgh SUNYAC 13 6 26 41 44 54 72 43 169 0.10 52 Clarkson Liberty 7 8 36 21 72 64 28 78 170 0.10 53 Colorado College Independent 11 4 44 64 42 22 117 34 173 0.10 54 Washington Colle Centennial 6 10 50 9 93 66 16 92 174 0.10 55 Wooster North Coast 9 7 60 84 84 59 43 75 177 0.10 56 Catholic Landmark 11 6 72 74 59 56 61 62 179 0.10 57 Hampden-Sydney Old Dominion 9 7 43 39 64 58 50 71 179 0.10 58 Franklin & Marsh Centennial 7 9 34 22 89 63 32 87 182 0.10 59 Christopher Newp Capital 11 5 25 56 45 60 78 45 183 1.00 60 Stevens Empire 8 9 8 42 45 87 67 29 91 187 0.10 61 Adrian MIAA 11 5 95 115 54 47 91 50 188 0.10 62 St. John Fisher Empire 8 10 7 65 52 66 68 57 72 197 0.10 63 Oneonta SUNYAC 7 8 59 30 92 62 41 96 199 0.10 64 Dickinson Centennial 7 9 38 19 81 71 33 100 204 0.10 65 Brockport SUNYAC 8 7 67 60 75 70 60 77 207 0.10 66 Marywood CSAC 12 6 76 91 57 75 66 66 207 0.10 67 Plymouth State Little East 12 4 90 118 39 44 122 41 207 0.10 68 Susquehanna Landmark 12 4 62 81 40 61 107 42 210 0.10 69 Baldwin Wallace OAC 12 3 94 173 25 65 128 21 214 0.10 70 Morrisville Stat NEAC 11 6 98 125 60 76 81 64 221 0.10 71 McDaniel Centennial 7 7 47 28 82 72 69 81 222 0.10 72 Mary Washington Capital 8 8 45 34 101 73 40 110 223 0.10 73 Babson NEWMAC 11 7 57 69 85 77 71 83 231 0.10 74 Guilford Old Dominion 10 6 66 85 63 78 96 58 232 0.10 75 MIT NEWMAC 12 5 85 100 28 38 165 29 232 0.10 76 Widener MAC-Commonwlth 7 10 71 43 109 90 37 113 240 0.10 77 Stockton Skyline 13 6 83 105 71 86 90 67 243 0.10 78 John Carroll OAC 9 7 96 124 99 69 82 95 246 0.10 79 Whittier Independent 6 6 61 67 88 74 84 93 251 0.10 80 Keuka NEAC 9 4 97 165 48 81 129 46 256 0.10 81 Wentworth CCC 9 8 125 103 113 79 75 106 260 0.10 82 Birmingham-South Southern 9 7 136 152 97 93 83 86 262 0.10 83 Goucher Landmark 7 7 81 86 90 89 87 88 264 0.10 84 Oberlin North Coast 8 7 115 111 86 99 88 82 269 0.10 85 U. of New Englan CCC 8 9 105 83 122 85 65 120 270 0.10 86 Castleton North Atlantic 13 6 131 176 51 97 125 56 278 0.10 87 Salve Regina CCC 6 7 130 89 107 95 93 90 278 0.10 88 Scranton Landmark 10 8 69 79 117 84 77 117 278 0.10 89 Transylvania Ohio River 11 6 127 180 73 94 112 74 280 0.10 90 Berry Southern 12 5 101 138 56 45 190 49 284 0.10 91 Gordon CCC 8 10 99 77 153 87 59 139 285 0.10 92 Potsdam SUNYAC 7 8 46 51 116 83 86 116 285 0.10 93 Mount Ida Great Northeas 11 5 143 187 58 80 146 60 286 0.10 94 Benedictine Midwest 11 5 121 174 55 91 141 55 287 0.10 95 Connecticut Coll NESCAC 4 11 33 6 133 92 45 151 288 0.10 96 Lasell Great Northeas 9 7 135 192 100 108 79 102 289 0.10 97 Eastern Connecti Little East 8 7 84 90 105 82 100 108 290 0.10 98 Illinois Wesleya CCIW 11 7 113 172 91 110 92 89 291 0.10 99 Skidmore Liberty 5 10 70 29 147 98 48 147 293 0.10 100 Geneseo SUNYAC 5 9 74 40 129 101 64 129 294 0.10 101 Concordia-Wiscon Midwest 10 7 109 155 94 96 105 94 295 0.10 102 Hilbert NEAC 9 6 120 169 78 103 116 80 299 0.10 103 Wheaton NEWMAC 10 7 102 116 96 88 113 98 299 0.10 104 DePauw North Coast 6 9 119 114 141 124 70 123 317 0.10 105 Swarthmore Centennial 7 8 58 42 108 106 109 105 320 0.10 106 Utica Empire 8 8 8 92 80 119 104 89 128 321 0.10 107 Trinity NESCAC 4 11 41 12 148 112 53 159 324 0.10 108 Bowdoin NESCAC 3 12 48 3 158 109 47 177 333 0.10 109 Haverford Centennial 5 9 68 32 125 105 98 130 333 0.10 110 Rivier Great Northeas 12 5 169 211 52 114 171 52 337 0.10 111 Saint Vincent Ohio River 9 7 140 179 102 119 114 104 337 0.10 112 St. Mary's Capital 5 8 51 38 118 116 103 118 337 0.10 113 Clark NEWMAC 8 7 89 119 104 100 137 107 344 0.10 114 UMass Dartmouth Little East 8 9 108 110 151 102 95 150 347 0.10 115 Washington & Jef Landmark 8 8 147 142 132 115 101 135 351 0.10 116 Elmhurst CCIW 7 9 142 161 152 128 73 152 353 0.10 117 Merchant Marine Landmark 7 7 106 112 111 107 138 111 356 0.10 118 Oswego SUNYAC 7 7 100 88 95 121 140 97 358 0.10 119 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 6 11 86 58 189 111 67 182 360 0.10 120 Gwynedd Mercy CSAC 11 5 79 140 49 122 180 59 361 0.10 121 Misericordia MAC-Freedom 10 8 75 109 115 120 132 112 364 0.10 122 Farmingdale Stat Skyline 8 8 107 95 124 127 115 124 366 0.10 123 King's MAC-Freedom 6 8 104 98 136 125 118 125 368 0.10 124 Rhodes Southern 8 8 144 157 106 117 152 103 372 0.10 125 Mount Union OAC 5 9 128 128 160 113 106 157 376 0.10 126 Bridgewater Old Dominion 6 11 123 73 184 129 76 178 383 0.10 127 Norwich Great Northeas 7 8 157 181 131 131 121 134 386 0.10 128 DeSales MAC-Freedom 5 8 116 87 142 123 130 138 391 0.10 129 Salem State Little East 7 9 132 136 156 118 120 155 393 0.10 130 Randolph Old Dominion 5 10 124 75 169 135 99 161 395 0.10 131 Olivet MIAA 5 10 151 127 188 126 85 187 398 0.10 132 Kean Skyline 9 8 87 101 121 130 154 119 403 0.10 133 New England Coll North Atlantic 8 8 154 197 128 136 144 127 407 0.10 134 Marymount Capital 5 10 88 63 167 137 102 171 410 0.10 135 Wesley Capital 6 8 118 78 120 144 147 121 412 0.10 136 Beloit Midwest 5 8 167 158 139 143 131 142 416 0.10 137 Lebanon Valley MAC-Commonwlth 8 9 117 113 137 141 136 140 417 0.10 138 Bryn Athyn NEAC 8 5 160 196 69 145 205 68 418 0.10 139 Southern Maine Little East 6 7 141 154 112 139 166 114 419 0.10 140 Thiel Ohio River 10 5 171 210 61 149 208 65 422 0.10 141 Muhlenberg Centennial 3 10 80 37 168 147 111 166 424 0.10 142 Alma MIAA 11 6 165 193 74 134 215 76 425 0.10 143 Nichols CCC 6 10 145 147 173 142 127 158 427 0.10 144 Fairleigh Dickin MAC-Freedom 8 7 110 102 110 132 188 109 429 0.10 145 Lycoming MAC-Commonwlth 3 12 129 65 206 155 74 206 435 0.10 146 Cazenovia NEAC 8 6 152 191 80 156 199 84 439 0.10 147 Vassar Liberty 6 10 82 47 157 138 142 160 440 0.10 148 Delaware Valley MAC-Freedom 5 8 161 122 140 148 161 137 446 0.10 149 Regis NECC 8 6 186 216 83 158 207 85 450 0.10 150 Western Connecti Little East 6 12 103 62 205 133 110 207 450 0.10 151 Hanover Ohio River 7 9 153 185 154 153 145 153 451 0.10 152 Johnson & Wales Great Northeas 7 8 175 201 130 146 173 132 451 0.10 153 Trine MIAA 3 9 150 149 176 154 123 174 451 0.10 154 Shenandoah Old Dominion 4 12 126 70 204 157 94 201 452 0.10 155 Wilmington OAC 9 7 170 202 103 165 193 99 457 0.10 156 UMass Boston Little East 5 10 139 133 162 152 148 163 463 0.10 157 Ferrum SEILC 9 9 122 123 145 140 182 144 466 0.10 158 Husson North Atlantic 9 7 195 218 98 161 204 101 466 0.10 159 Becker NECC 8 8 184 215 123 166 183 122 471 0.10 160 Coast Guard NEWMAC 4 10 155 126 190 151 135 189 475 0.10 161 Southwestern Independent 6 10 168 177 183 159 133 183 475 0.10 162 Greensboro SEILC 6 9 146 139 143 164 167 145 476 0.10 163 Hendrix Southern 6 8 158 199 135 176 172 131 479 0.10 164 Mass. Maritime NEWMAC 6 10 173 153 182 150 149 181 480 0.10 165 Elmira Empire 8 3 10 178 97 185 171 119 193 483 0.10 166 Hartwick Empire 8 3 10 134 92 186 168 126 194 488 0.10 167 SUNY Poly NEAC 5 8 180 168 144 172 174 143 489 0.10 168 Hood MAC-Commonwlth 6 10 156 117 164 173 155 164 492 0.10 169 Curry CCC 4 11 149 121 196 160 143 190 493 0.10 170 MSoE Midwest 8 9 182 205 150 177 169 149 495 0.10 171 Carroll CCIW 0 6 220 162 114 196 186 115 497 0.10 172 Maritime Skyline 6 8 148 146 138 162 194 141 497 0.10 173 Maine Maritime North Atlantic 7 8 181 212 126 167 198 133 498 0.10 174 Mount Saint Mary Skyline 5 10 163 107 187 163 150 185 498 0.10 175 Arcadia MAC-Commonwlth 5 10 137 120 171 179 153 168 500 0.10 176 St. Joseph's (ME Great Northeas 5 9 188 203 161 175 163 162 500 0.10 177 Methodist SEILC 8 8 172 164 127 174 201 126 501 0.10 178 Huntingdon SEILC 6 13 159 163 214 170 124 211 505 0.10 179 Hope MIAA 6 10 174 175 180 169 159 180 508 0.10 180 Bard Liberty 3 11 164 71 192 188 139 188 515 0.10 181 La Roche Independent 4 9 193 186 166 181 177 165 523 0.10 182 Cornell (IA) Midwest 3 10 190 170 193 184 151 192 527 0.10 183 Mount St. Joseph Ohio River 4 10 191 188 191 185 158 186 529 0.10 184 Hiram North Coast 3 10 203 130 179 183 178 170 531 0.10 185 Mitchell NECC 7 9 192 207 155 178 200 154 532 0.10 186 Wabash North Coast 1 12 206 129 207 193 134 205 532 0.10 187 Daniel Webster NECC 6 8 205 220 134 194 211 136 541 0.10 188 Emerson NEWMAC 5 11 197 189 197 182 162 197 541 0.10 189 Immaculata CSAC 4 10 179 144 181 190 160 191 541 0.10 190 Manhattanville MAC-Freedom 5 9 166 132 159 186 202 156 544 0.10 191 Muskingum OAC 3 11 198 184 203 192 157 199 548 0.10 192 Centenary CSAC 5 10 138 131 163 189 191 184 564 0.10 193 Millsaps Southern 3 11 196 178 202 197 176 198 571 0.10 194 Lyndon State North Atlantic 4 8 214 222 146 207 219 146 572 0.10 195 SUNY Canton Independent 3 9 176 171 174 195 206 172 573 0.10 196 Franciscan Independent 2 13 211 194 210 200 164 210 574 0.10 197 Calvin MIAA 2 13 208 183 215 205 156 215 576 0.10 198 Johnson State North Atlantic 3 8 213 223 149 213 220 148 581 0.10 199 Albertus Magnus Great Northeas 3 11 194 204 200 191 189 202 582 0.10 200 Wells NEAC 4 9 185 200 170 203 212 167 582 0.10 201 Piedmont SEILC 4 12 162 160 199 187 196 200 583 0.10 202 Drew Landmark 2 11 133 94 195 180 209 196 585 0.10 203 Green Mountain North Atlantic 3 9 217 217 172 204 214 169 587 0.10 204 Southern Virgini Capital 2 14 189 93 217 201 170 217 588 0.10 205 Bethany Ohio River 4 12 202 208 209 199 181 209 589 0.10 206 Alvernia MAC-Commonwlth 3 13 187 143 212 202 179 213 594 0.10 207 Rosemont CSAC 3 11 177 145 198 198 192 204 594 0.10 208 Thomas North Atlantic 3 9 215 219 175 211 216 173 600 0.10 209 Medaille NEAC 2 12 207 182 211 206 184 212 602 0.10 210 Dubuque CCIW 2 10 212 195 177 212 217 175 604 0.10 211 Neumann CSAC 0 14 204 141 220 216 168 221 605 0.10 212 Keystone CSAC 2 9 201 148 165 214 218 176 608 0.10 213 Houghton Empire 8 1 14 209 151 218 215 175 219 609 0.10 214 Alfred State Independent 3 14 200 166 219 210 185 218 613 0.10 215 Anna Maria Great Northeas 1 15 216 198 222 209 187 222 618 0.10 216 Centenary (LA) Independent 1 9 221 213 178 223 222 179 624 0.10 217 Fontbonne Midwest 1 14 210 159 213 208 203 214 625 0.10 218 Cobleskill NEAC 3 11 199 190 201 217 213 203 633 0.10 219 Maine Farmington North Atlantic 0 14 222 214 221 218 197 220 635 0.10 220 Dallas Independent 5 12 218 206 194 219 223 195 637 0.10 221 Defiance Ohio River 0 16 219 209 223 221 195 223 639 0.10 222 Mt. St. Vincent Skyline 0 13 183 156 216 220 210 216 646 0.10 223 Wheelock NECC 0 11 223 221 208 222 221 208 651 0.10