2014 NCAA Men's Division III
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 Salisbury Capital 21 2 3 3 1 1 1 1 3 9.00 2 RIT Liberty 20 1 2 4 3 2 3 2 7 14.00 3 Tufts NESCAC 21 2 1 1 2 3 4 3 10 44.00 4 Stevenson MAC Commonwlth 19 3 6 20 4 5 2 4 11 1.00 5 Cortland SUNYAC 17 4 9 11 9 8 5 8 21 3.00 6 Denison North Coast 19 1 5 49 7 4 11 6 21 3.00 7 Washington Colle Centennial 18 2 7 2 5 6 10 5 21 4.00 8 Union Liberty 15 4 11 15 10 7 6 9 22 2.00 9 Lynchburg Old Dominion 17 5 8 19 8 9 9 11 29 3.00 10 York Capital 16 5 16 29 12 15 7 12 34 0.10 11 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 12 4 21 52 15 10 12 14 36 0.10 12 Amherst NESCAC 15 5 13 6 18 11 15 15 41 2.00 13 Cabrini CSAC 17 2 4 46 6 13 28 7 48 13.00 14 Ithaca Empire 8 15 5 17 33 14 29 16 16 61 0.10 15 Mary Washington Capital 14 4 14 37 16 20 29 19 68 0.10 16 Endicott Commonwealth 15 5 10 39 20 14 36 21 71 0.10 17 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 11 6 12 32 28 23 17 32 72 0.10 18 Springfield NEWMAC 15 4 22 54 17 17 39 18 74 0.10 19 Montclair State Skyline 16 2 25 66 13 12 51 13 76 2.00 20 Rensselaer Liberty 11 5 27 40 34 27 23 27 77 0.10 21 Wittenberg North Coast 10 5 53 64 39 24 20 33 77 0.10 22 Roanoke Old Dominion 12 5 24 38 24 18 37 24 79 0.10 23 Otterbein OAC 12 5 74 100 47 21 24 35 80 0.10 24 Kean Skyline 16 3 51 101 21 16 49 17 82 0.10 25 Wesleyan NESCAC 12 5 19 10 29 22 33 28 83 0.10 26 Franklin & Marsh Centennial 13 5 18 22 19 31 32 23 86 0.10 27 Western New Engl Commonwealth 10 8 37 34 52 32 8 48 88 0.10 28 Frostburg State Capital 14 6 31 57 25 39 31 26 96 0.10 29 Wooster North Coast 10 5 58 81 54 28 26 42 96 0.10 30 Adrian MIAA 13 4 60 91 26 25 44 29 98 0.10 31 Williams NESCAC 10 7 26 8 42 37 21 41 99 0.10 32 Albright MAC Commonwlth 13 6 41 45 36 36 35 31 102 0.10 33 Colorado College SCAC 10 6 52 73 48 19 41 45 105 0.10 34 Centre Southern 13 4 70 114 27 33 48 25 106 0.10 35 Gettysburg Centennial 9 7 15 7 40 43 18 49 110 0.10 36 Aurora Midwest 16 4 34 112 22 26 65 20 111 0.10 37 St. Lawrence Liberty 8 6 28 13 51 34 30 51 115 0.10 38 Keuka NEAC 14 1 63 147 11 30 80 10 120 0.10 39 Stevens Empire 8 8 8 20 21 69 41 13 70 124 0.10 40 Emmanuel Great Northeas 15 4 128 180 23 49 55 22 126 0.10 41 Dickinson Centennial 9 7 23 12 49 46 22 60 128 0.10 42 Sewanee Southern 12 5 55 109 41 44 40 44 128 0.10 43 Hampden-Sydney Old Dominion 10 8 45 35 67 42 27 66 135 0.10 44 Christopher Newp Capital 10 6 48 44 44 45 42 53 140 0.10 45 Kenyon North Coast 9 7 80 71 83 47 25 68 140 0.10 46 Plattsburgh SUNYAC 13 6 33 48 50 40 56 46 142 0.10 47 Albion MIAA 12 5 44 110 58 38 52 57 147 0.10 48 Bowdoin NESCAC 9 7 35 9 61 50 34 63 147 0.10 49 Concordia-Wiscon Midwest 14 4 88 154 35 55 63 36 154 0.10 50 Eastern Connecti Little East 11 6 69 72 46 51 54 54 159 0.10 51 Ursinus Centennial 9 6 29 28 60 53 45 61 159 0.10 52 Connecticut Coll NESCAC 9 7 40 16 63 48 47 77 172 0.10 53 St. Mary's Capital 7 10 42 27 111 59 14 101 174 0.10 54 Keene State Little East 10 7 36 59 71 57 38 80 175 0.10 55 Whittier Independent 8 5 39 50 53 35 86 56 177 0.10 56 John Carroll OAC 13 4 112 157 37 52 88 39 179 0.10 57 Babson NEWMAC 11 7 86 88 86 54 53 75 182 0.10 58 Oberlin North Coast 8 6 68 92 77 58 62 64 184 0.10 59 Eastern MAC Freedom 14 5 43 68 33 60 92 34 186 0.10 60 Roger Williams Commonwealth 13 5 72 95 45 56 83 47 186 0.10 61 Nazareth Empire 8 8 10 30 26 91 72 19 96 187 0.10 62 Morrisville Stat NEAC 13 4 93 141 38 61 89 40 190 0.10 63 Salve Regina Commonwealth 15 5 95 123 31 62 98 37 197 0.10 64 Clarkson Liberty 7 7 54 31 74 64 58 76 198 0.10 65 Middlebury NESCAC 8 8 32 5 88 63 46 91 200 0.10 66 Colby NESCAC 7 8 49 17 75 73 50 79 202 0.10 67 St. John Fisher Empire 8 12 5 38 56 32 70 95 38 203 0.10 68 Widener MAC Commonwlth 9 6 50 51 57 76 75 59 210 0.10 69 Potsdam SUNYAC 10 6 66 70 72 66 77 69 212 0.10 70 Virginia Wesleya Old Dominion 9 7 71 63 78 69 72 82 223 0.10 71 Farmingdale Stat Skyline 8 6 104 99 82 74 78 78 230 0.10 72 Carthage Midwest 15 6 59 146 65 65 101 65 231 0.10 73 Berry Southern 11 4 81 140 43 67 126 43 236 0.10 74 McDaniel Centennial 6 9 62 18 102 81 43 112 236 0.10 75 Mount Union OAC 12 5 117 164 59 79 102 58 239 0.10 76 Stockton Skyline 13 7 85 115 89 80 91 74 245 0.10 77 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 9 8 56 53 94 71 76 100 247 0.10 78 UMass Dartmouth Little East 13 5 97 125 56 68 128 55 251 0.10 79 Wesley Capital 5 8 98 58 110 84 64 108 256 0.10 80 Augustana Midwest 9 7 99 150 97 92 70 97 259 0.10 81 New England Coll North Atlantic 14 4 141 199 30 85 144 30 259 0.10 82 Geneseo SUNYAC 5 8 67 43 106 82 73 105 260 0.10 83 Lasell Great Northeas 11 6 147 191 79 78 104 81 263 0.10 84 Becker Great Northeas 15 6 161 204 62 91 115 62 268 0.10 85 Southwestern SCAC 10 5 121 155 64 90 133 50 273 0.10 86 Guilford Old Dominion 9 6 64 78 66 83 121 72 276 0.10 87 Scranton Landmark 10 7 61 67 92 77 111 89 277 0.10 88 Castleton North Atlantic 12 6 139 193 73 99 119 71 289 0.10 89 Wentworth Commonwealth 7 9 113 104 143 86 66 139 291 0.10 90 Brockport SUNYAC 4 9 75 41 137 95 67 134 296 0.10 91 Marywood CSAC 10 9 84 74 101 89 100 111 300 0.10 92 Transylvania Independent 7 7 134 145 109 94 105 107 306 0.10 93 Benedictine Midwest 10 6 135 171 80 101 123 83 307 0.10 94 Goucher Landmark 7 8 57 61 107 88 112 115 315 0.10 95 Hilbert NEAC 8 5 148 173 70 96 147 73 316 0.10 96 Oneonta SUNYAC 5 11 90 42 154 104 60 152 316 0.10 97 Greensboro Independent 5 7 105 80 99 100 120 98 318 0.10 98 Saint Vincent Presidents 8 8 131 138 123 106 99 113 318 0.10 99 Gordon Commonwealth 8 9 125 105 138 103 81 135 319 0.10 100 Plymouth State Little East 9 6 108 127 85 87 149 86 322 0.10 101 Hamilton NESCAC 5 9 47 14 127 102 85 136 323 0.10 102 Marymount Capital 9 8 65 60 96 75 155 93 323 0.10 103 Hanover Midwest 9 7 132 168 100 107 118 99 324 0.10 104 Lycoming MAC Commonwlth 7 10 101 55 145 97 84 143 324 0.10 105 Vassar Liberty 6 9 102 69 133 120 94 117 331 0.10 106 Norwich Great Northeas 8 10 165 179 157 105 71 156 332 0.10 107 Birmingham-South Southern 9 8 133 151 116 110 110 114 334 0.10 108 Clark NEWMAC 8 7 110 122 103 108 137 94 339 0.10 109 Beloit Independent 9 6 144 186 81 116 139 85 340 0.10 110 MIT NEWMAC 9 8 122 118 93 93 157 92 342 0.10 111 Bates NESCAC 4 9 46 30 136 112 90 141 343 0.10 112 Susquehanna Landmark 11 8 79 82 104 98 142 103 343 0.10 113 Lebanon Valley MAC Commonwlth 7 8 87 89 113 111 124 110 345 0.10 114 Olivet MIAA 9 8 138 152 119 109 117 121 347 0.10 115 Mount Ida Great Northeas 9 8 169 192 118 118 113 119 350 0.10 116 DePauw North Coast 3 12 154 79 173 126 68 163 357 0.10 117 DeSales MAC Freedom 6 11 114 77 170 119 79 164 362 0.10 118 Skidmore Liberty 4 11 89 36 167 125 82 162 369 0.10 119 Trinity NESCAC 4 11 82 25 163 129 74 167 370 0.10 120 Baldwin Wallace OAC 7 7 137 187 105 131 136 104 371 0.10 121 Wheaton NEWMAC 5 9 111 93 152 117 106 149 372 0.10 122 Gwynedd Mercy CSAC 8 6 94 116 76 115 174 84 373 0.10 123 Ferrum Independent 7 10 107 87 149 113 107 155 375 0.10 124 Trine MIAA 4 12 140 108 194 121 61 194 376 0.10 125 Elmhurst Midwest 8 8 151 162 121 124 129 124 377 0.10 126 Catholic Landmark 7 7 83 94 98 123 154 102 379 0.10 127 Huntingdon Independent 10 6 136 178 68 122 191 67 380 0.10 128 Mount St. Joseph Midwest 4 13 176 117 196 137 57 189 383 0.10 129 Swarthmore Centennial 5 10 73 47 151 134 93 157 384 0.10 130 Messiah MAC Commonwlth 7 9 78 65 130 114 135 137 386 0.10 131 Muhlenberg Centennial 2 12 100 23 181 138 69 179 386 0.10 132 Utica Empire 8 8 8 96 90 115 133 131 123 387 0.10 133 Elizabethtown MAC Commonwlth 7 8 91 83 112 127 152 109 388 0.10 134 Curry Commonwealth 6 10 160 121 153 142 103 150 395 0.10 135 Hope MIAA 6 7 130 163 95 147 159 95 401 0.10 136 Shenandoah Old Dominion 6 11 119 85 162 143 96 166 405 0.10 137 U. of New Englan Commonwealth 5 12 109 98 185 132 87 187 406 0.10 138 Oswego SUNYAC 6 9 76 75 142 128 138 145 411 0.10 139 Merchant Marine Landmark 8 6 106 130 84 130 194 88 412 0.10 140 Haverford Centennial 1 13 77 24 186 158 59 196 413 0.10 141 Cazenovia NEAC 8 4 159 201 55 150 212 52 414 0.10 142 Alfred Empire 8 5 8 103 86 125 141 134 140 415 0.10 143 Western Connecti Little East 7 10 124 113 160 135 125 159 419 0.10 144 Rhodes Southern 7 10 157 169 159 153 108 160 421 0.10 145 Illinois Wesleya Independent 8 6 142 189 87 148 190 87 425 0.10 146 Medaille NEAC 5 7 156 176 114 144 169 116 429 0.10 147 Thiel Presidents 8 8 146 182 124 149 153 127 429 0.10 148 Mitchell NECC 8 8 173 188 122 145 163 126 434 0.10 149 Mass. Maritime NEWMAC 7 8 150 160 129 140 178 125 443 0.10 150 Neumann CSAC 6 10 126 107 146 146 146 151 443 0.10 151 Bridgewater Old Dominion 5 11 153 103 164 163 114 168 445 0.10 152 Mount Saint Mary Skyline 6 9 166 119 150 152 150 144 446 0.10 153 King's MAC Freedom 7 8 92 106 128 139 179 129 447 0.10 154 Millsaps Southern 6 11 172 175 176 161 109 177 447 0.10 155 Mt. St. Vincent Skyline 6 8 168 170 139 162 173 120 455 0.10 156 Capital OAC 8 6 175 198 90 160 206 90 456 0.10 157 Rivier Great Northeas 7 8 180 206 132 157 170 131 458 0.10 158 St. Joseph's (ME Great Northeas 6 8 181 202 140 151 172 138 461 0.10 159 Drew Landmark 5 10 116 76 165 136 161 165 462 0.10 160 Randolph Old Dominion 5 11 145 102 166 166 127 170 463 0.10 161 Washington & Jef Landmark 5 12 162 126 193 155 116 193 464 0.10 162 Hiram North Coast 2 11 196 133 175 180 122 169 471 0.10 163 Centenary CSAC 5 9 152 124 144 167 165 147 479 0.10 164 Fairleigh Dickin MAC Freedom 8 8 129 135 126 156 195 128 479 0.10 165 Misericordia MAC Freedom 7 8 115 129 131 165 186 130 481 0.10 166 Arcadia MAC Freedom 6 8 127 134 134 169 182 132 483 0.10 167 Maine Maritime North Atlantic 7 7 183 212 108 174 203 106 483 0.10 168 La Roche Independent 2 10 158 131 168 170 143 172 485 0.10 169 Piedmont Independent 6 8 155 143 147 164 177 146 487 0.10 170 Southern Virgini Capital 1 15 197 84 210 187 97 210 494 0.10 171 UMass Boston Little East 8 10 143 156 148 154 192 148 494 0.10 172 Maritime Skyline 5 11 182 153 180 168 156 173 497 0.10 173 SUNY Canton Independent 4 9 184 174 155 173 171 153 497 0.10 174 Regis NECC 9 8 178 211 120 176 204 122 502 0.10 175 Nichols Commonwealth 3 13 170 132 203 171 130 203 504 0.10 176 Elmira Empire 8 2 11 120 62 178 181 148 184 513 0.10 177 Bard Independent 6 8 164 167 135 179 202 133 514 0.10 178 Johnson & Wales Great Northeas 4 13 190 196 206 177 132 205 514 0.10 179 Salem State Little East 3 12 167 139 197 172 145 197 514 0.10 180 Hendrix Southern 7 10 149 183 161 159 197 161 517 0.10 181 Fontbonne Midwest 3 12 198 172 195 184 140 195 519 0.10 182 Wilmington OAC 4 11 188 190 182 183 162 180 525 0.10 183 Hartwick Empire 8 3 11 118 96 179 186 160 182 528 0.10 184 Maine Farmington North Atlantic 4 7 208 215 117 202 213 118 533 0.10 185 MSoE Midwest 2 12 192 177 200 192 141 200 533 0.10 186 Southern Maine Little East 2 13 174 137 208 178 151 208 537 0.10 187 Husson North Atlantic 5 8 202 208 141 193 207 142 542 0.10 188 Albertus Magnus Great Northeas 3 10 195 205 169 188 185 171 544 0.10 189 Alma MIAA 6 11 177 184 174 185 184 175 544 0.10 190 SUNYIT NEAC 3 11 179 165 184 182 180 183 545 0.10 191 Emerson NEWMAC 1 11 199 158 188 190 176 185 551 0.10 192 Methodist Independent 3 10 171 149 171 189 188 174 551 0.10 193 Calvin MIAA 2 12 189 161 198 196 158 198 552 0.10 194 Centenary (LA) SCAC 0 10 213 142 177 195 187 176 558 0.10 195 Rosemont CSAC 4 11 185 136 172 191 189 178 558 0.10 196 Hood MAC Commonwlth 4 12 123 97 189 175 199 186 560 0.10 197 Cobleskill NEAC 1 12 193 159 201 197 166 201 564 0.10 198 Thomas North Atlantic 4 9 207 213 156 204 209 154 567 0.10 199 Wells NEAC 3 9 201 203 158 207 210 158 575 0.10 200 Anna Maria Great Northeas 2 14 194 194 211 198 168 211 577 0.10 201 Alvernia MAC Commonwlth 2 15 187 120 212 201 167 212 580 0.10 202 Immaculata CSAC 1 13 163 111 204 200 175 206 581 0.10 203 Oglethorpe Southern 2 13 200 144 190 194 198 190 582 0.10 204 Daniel Webster Great Northeas 2 12 209 207 199 203 183 199 585 0.10 205 Defiance Midwest 0 15 212 185 215 209 164 214 587 0.10 206 Dubuque Independent 0 12 211 166 191 205 196 191 592 0.10 207 Manhattanville MAC Freedom 1 15 186 128 214 199 181 213 593 0.10 208 Bethany Presidents 4 13 204 195 205 206 193 204 603 0.10 209 Johnson State North Atlantic 0 11 214 210 192 211 205 192 608 0.10 210 Bryn Athyn Independent 3 11 191 200 183 213 215 181 609 0.10 211 Alfred State Independent 2 13 203 181 187 208 214 188 610 0.10 212 Franciscan Independent 1 14 206 197 209 210 201 209 620 0.10 213 Green Mountain North Atlantic 1 12 215 214 202 214 211 202 627 0.10 214 Lyndon State North Atlantic 2 13 210 209 207 212 208 207 627 0.10 215 Houghton Empire 8 0 15 205 148 213 215 200 215 630 0.10