2011 NCAA Men's Division III
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 Salisbury Capital 21 1 2 13 1 2 2 1 5 21.00 2 Stevenson Capital 18 3 1 8 4 5 1 2 8 42.00 3 Tufts NESCAC 18 3 7 1 2 3 3 4 10 1.00 4 Roanoke Old Dominion 17 4 6 6 6 4 4 6 14 1.00 5 Dickinson Centennial 17 2 15 20 8 6 9 5 20 0.10 6 Cortland SUNYAC 16 3 3 10 7 7 7 7 21 14.00 7 Amherst NESCAC 15 3 13 4 5 8 11 8 27 1.00 8 Stevens Empire 8 16 3 4 29 9 9 14 11 34 13.00 9 Middlebury NESCAC 13 5 9 5 18 10 12 18 40 1.00 10 Endicott Commonwealth 16 5 8 47 13 18 10 13 41 3.00 11 Gettysburg Centennial 12 7 14 9 32 13 5 25 43 0.10 12 Haverford Centennial 11 4 22 11 16 14 20 17 51 0.10 13 Western New Engl Commonwealth 16 5 27 57 11 22 15 15 52 0.10 14 Denison North Coast 11 4 12 43 24 12 22 19 53 0.10 15 Lynchburg Old Dominion 13 6 11 18 19 20 13 21 54 0.10 16 Trinity NESCAC 12 4 24 24 15 19 23 14 56 0.10 17 Wittenberg North Coast 14 2 43 80 12 11 36 9 56 0.10 18 Bowdoin NESCAC 8 7 10 3 41 21 6 32 59 0.10 19 Adrian Midwest 15 3 50 111 20 15 30 16 61 0.10 20 Nazareth Empire 8 11 7 31 7 21 17 8 36 61 0.10 21 Keene State Little East 14 3 23 67 17 16 34 20 70 0.10 22 RIT Empire 8 19 1 5 21 3 1 68 3 72 3.00 23 Widener Middle Atlanti 15 3 39 81 14 28 32 12 72 0.10 24 Skidmore Liberty 11 4 19 33 26 23 29 24 76 0.10 25 Springfield Pilgrim 11 6 25 38 27 26 17 33 76 0.10 26 Union Liberty 13 5 16 27 29 30 25 31 86 0.10 27 Wesleyan NESCAC 10 5 28 26 30 29 31 27 87 0.10 28 Eastern Connecti Little East 12 6 42 72 46 27 28 40 95 0.10 29 St. John Fisher Empire 8 12 4 17 40 23 25 51 22 98 0.10 30 Hampden-Sydney Old Dominion 12 5 21 39 28 31 42 26 99 0.10 31 Cabrini CSAC 13 6 20 61 31 33 39 28 100 0.10 32 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 10 4 30 52 22 24 54 23 101 0.10 33 Rensselaer Liberty 11 6 18 41 37 34 24 47 105 0.10 34 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 9 8 34 28 55 39 19 52 110 0.10 35 Mary Washington Capital 11 6 38 36 33 35 41 35 111 0.10 36 Ursinus Centennial 9 6 46 31 47 37 38 37 112 0.10 37 Ithaca Empire 8 9 8 26 32 48 40 18 55 113 0.10 38 Montclair State Skyline 10 7 68 56 38 38 35 49 122 0.10 39 St. Mary's Capital 6 9 53 12 69 51 16 64 131 0.10 40 Mount St. Joseph Midwest 10 7 100 123 76 54 27 60 141 0.10 41 Hamilton Liberty 11 3 29 58 25 32 80 30 142 0.10 42 Messiah Middle Atlanti 12 5 63 95 43 48 56 43 147 0.10 43 Colby NESCAC 9 7 32 37 45 47 64 46 157 0.10 44 Franklin & Marsh Centennial 8 6 40 34 54 45 76 41 162 0.10 45 New England Coll Commonwealth 13 6 61 85 51 49 60 54 163 0.10 46 Western Connecti Little East 10 7 80 84 80 44 45 74 163 0.10 47 Clarkson Liberty 8 7 36 17 59 46 43 75 164 0.10 48 Alfred Empire 8 10 6 77 82 40 61 62 45 168 0.10 49 Geneseo SUNYAC 7 7 35 25 64 52 53 65 170 0.10 50 UMass Dartmouth Little East 13 4 81 109 34 42 95 34 171 0.10 51 Colorado College SCAC 15 1 48 127 10 36 126 10 172 0.10 52 Babson Pilgrim 10 8 71 69 81 53 40 82 175 0.10 53 Scranton Landmark 9 8 55 42 79 43 55 81 179 0.10 54 Connecticut Coll NESCAC 6 10 37 15 94 66 21 93 180 0.10 55 Elmira Empire 8 5 8 90 44 83 58 44 85 187 0.10 56 Goucher Landmark 11 6 45 64 57 41 88 59 188 0.10 57 Roger Williams Commonwealth 8 9 58 79 92 59 33 96 188 0.10 58 Hartwick Empire 8 10 9 78 70 86 55 48 86 189 0.10 59 Washington Colle Centennial 5 9 52 16 106 62 37 97 196 0.10 60 Fairleigh Dickin Middle Atlanti 11 7 96 87 74 60 66 72 198 0.10 61 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 8 7 51 60 65 70 63 70 203 0.10 62 McDaniel Centennial 6 8 56 35 87 63 70 78 211 0.10 63 Farmingdale Stat Skyline 10 5 72 96 53 56 105 53 214 0.10 64 Kenyon North Coast 5 9 79 55 112 67 47 102 216 0.10 65 York Capital 10 6 54 50 50 50 115 51 216 0.10 66 Muhlenberg Centennial 5 9 44 23 104 69 49 99 217 0.10 67 Birmingham-South SCAC 9 7 82 121 73 76 75 67 218 0.10 68 Catholic Landmark 11 6 67 86 63 71 90 58 219 0.10 69 Gordon Commonwealth 9 8 83 76 84 68 58 94 220 0.10 70 Eastern Middle Atlanti 10 6 62 90 67 65 87 69 221 0.10 71 Morrisville Stat NEAC 12 5 89 117 49 64 111 50 225 0.10 72 Bates NESCAC 4 9 49 22 98 77 59 90 226 0.10 73 Saint Vincent Independent 9 5 70 101 52 73 108 48 229 0.10 74 Keuka NEAC 10 5 84 125 42 83 106 42 231 0.10 75 Brockport SUNYAC 6 8 57 46 82 82 71 88 241 0.10 76 Drew Landmark 8 6 65 77 71 72 99 71 242 0.10 77 Elizabethtown Middle Atlanti 9 7 66 105 85 81 81 84 246 0.10 78 Carthage Midwest 12 5 102 159 35 75 145 29 249 0.10 79 Williams NESCAC 2 11 41 2 123 87 26 136 249 0.10 80 Potsdam SUNYAC 8 9 64 48 97 90 57 104 251 0.10 81 Virginia Wesleya Old Dominion 8 8 59 59 88 92 77 87 256 0.10 82 Lycoming Middle Atlanti 9 8 92 88 96 89 79 89 257 0.10 83 Susquehanna Landmark 11 6 75 100 66 78 114 66 258 0.10 84 Castleton North Atlantic 12 7 101 143 62 85 107 68 260 0.10 85 Lasell Great Northeas 9 8 105 133 91 93 84 83 260 0.10 86 St. Lawrence Liberty 4 10 47 14 141 74 50 140 264 0.10 87 Salve Regina Commonwealth 9 8 91 93 93 84 83 100 267 0.10 88 Wooster North Coast 5 9 95 66 129 79 73 115 267 0.10 89 Trine Midwest 10 4 106 162 39 98 132 39 269 0.10 90 Plattsburgh SUNYAC 10 6 33 51 58 57 150 63 270 0.10 91 Marywood CSAC 11 7 76 110 68 96 100 77 273 0.10 92 Plymouth State Little East 7 8 94 92 108 86 78 110 274 0.10 93 Aurora Midwest 11 6 124 148 61 102 116 57 275 0.10 94 Kean Skyline 8 7 87 97 75 97 102 76 275 0.10 95 Frostburg State Capital 6 11 86 68 135 100 46 135 281 0.10 96 Swarthmore Centennial 4 11 60 30 151 91 52 141 284 0.10 97 Mount Ida Great Northeas 11 7 119 144 78 95 112 80 287 0.10 98 Hood Capital 8 9 115 75 95 99 94 95 288 0.10 99 Whittier Independent 4 7 69 49 101 88 93 107 288 0.10 100 Christopher Newp Independent 7 8 73 74 102 94 92 108 294 0.10 101 Concordia-Wiscon Midwest 8 6 138 161 70 113 128 61 302 0.10 102 Oswego SUNYAC 5 10 85 62 115 106 74 124 304 0.10 103 Wesley Capital 5 10 88 45 122 105 82 119 306 0.10 104 Norwich Great Northeas 9 5 135 167 56 110 142 56 308 0.10 105 Guilford Old Dominion 9 7 110 83 72 80 158 73 311 0.10 106 Sewanee SCAC 7 8 107 128 109 107 103 106 316 0.10 107 Fontbonne Midwest 5 10 136 135 147 118 67 134 319 0.10 108 Oneonta SUNYAC 3 11 74 19 150 101 65 158 324 0.10 109 Greensboro Independent 5 11 99 63 143 111 69 147 327 0.10 110 Maritime Skyline 7 9 109 104 126 109 97 122 328 0.10 111 Oberlin North Coast 7 9 121 124 114 119 96 114 329 0.10 112 Vassar Liberty 5 9 93 73 120 108 89 132 329 0.10 113 La Roche Independent 8 6 141 171 36 116 177 38 331 0.10 114 Clark Pilgrim 6 8 111 102 90 103 149 92 344 0.10 115 Southern Maine Little East 5 11 108 98 160 104 91 160 355 0.10 116 U. of New Englan Commonwealth 8 10 104 94 117 115 113 131 359 0.10 117 Mitchell Independent 9 4 159 177 44 142 174 44 360 0.10 118 Salem State Little East 6 9 120 119 130 112 123 125 360 0.10 119 Wheaton Pilgrim 3 11 103 78 162 121 86 153 360 0.10 120 Utica Empire 8 2 13 127 53 167 133 61 167 361 0.10 121 Merchant Marine Landmark 4 12 97 65 164 114 85 164 363 0.10 122 Otterbein Independent 7 10 117 130 116 117 139 109 365 0.10 123 Cobleskill NEAC 7 9 131 137 118 125 124 120 369 0.10 124 Ferrum Independent 6 8 126 120 110 127 131 111 369 0.10 125 Washington & Jef Independent 5 10 113 113 152 129 98 142 369 0.10 126 Immaculata CSAC 6 9 125 108 107 124 136 112 372 0.10 127 Maine Maritime North Atlantic 7 5 140 172 60 139 172 62 373 0.10 128 Hilbert Independent 6 6 145 157 77 135 161 79 375 0.10 129 Misericordia Middle Atlanti 7 9 133 129 127 134 119 123 376 0.10 130 King's Middle Atlanti 6 10 118 106 144 123 110 145 378 0.10 131 Marymount Capital 2 14 98 54 172 136 72 171 379 0.10 132 MIT Pilgrim 5 8 116 114 113 126 137 116 379 0.10 133 Nichols Commonwealth 4 10 122 91 139 122 109 149 380 0.10 134 St. Joseph's (ME Great Northeas 10 8 155 168 100 132 153 101 386 0.10 135 Gwynedd-Mercy CSAC 6 9 114 103 125 131 130 126 387 0.10 136 Hendrix SCAC 5 7 151 158 99 140 152 98 390 0.10 137 Centenary CSAC 6 7 132 139 89 145 164 91 400 0.10 138 Curry Commonwealth 5 11 128 107 136 120 138 143 401 0.10 139 Lebanon Valley Middle Atlanti 6 10 112 122 145 138 117 146 401 0.10 140 Mt. St. Vincent Skyline 6 8 154 152 111 144 157 113 414 0.10 141 Randolph Old Dominion 1 12 137 71 166 147 101 166 414 0.10 142 UMass Boston Little East 5 11 153 126 161 137 118 162 417 0.10 143 Husson North Atlantic 8 10 150 147 137 128 154 137 419 0.10 144 Berry Independent 5 9 144 156 131 151 141 128 420 0.10 145 Neumann CSAC 4 10 143 112 149 141 129 150 420 0.10 146 Becker Great Northeas 7 11 152 165 154 146 125 154 425 0.10 147 Manhattanville Middle Atlanti 3 13 130 89 171 149 104 175 428 0.10 148 Anna Maria Commonwealth 5 12 149 131 165 143 121 165 429 0.10 149 Southwestern SCAC 7 9 142 132 128 130 175 127 432 0.10 150 Regis Independent 5 7 161 164 105 157 173 105 435 0.10 151 Wentworth Tech. Commonwealth 3 10 134 116 146 153 135 151 439 0.10 152 DeSales Middle Atlanti 3 12 129 99 168 152 122 168 442 0.10 153 Medaille NEAC 5 10 123 138 148 148 148 148 444 0.10 154 Stockton Skyline 3 11 139 115 156 150 134 161 445 0.10 155 Wells NEAC 3 8 160 153 121 162 166 118 446 0.10 156 Cazenovia NEAC 4 9 146 136 134 154 160 133 447 0.10 157 Daniel Webster Great Northeas 3 8 170 176 119 165 168 117 450 0.10 158 Albion Midwest 2 13 156 141 175 158 120 173 451 0.10 159 Maine Farmington North Atlantic 4 7 168 179 103 172 176 103 451 0.10 160 Centre SCAC 3 10 157 150 153 156 144 152 452 0.10 161 Thomas North Atlantic 5 10 163 166 133 155 169 130 454 0.10 162 MSoE Midwest 0 10 175 140 159 160 143 156 459 0.10 163 Hanover Independent 2 10 171 154 155 161 151 155 467 0.10 164 Lyndon State North Atlantic 2 9 165 173 138 164 165 138 467 0.10 165 Alvernia Middle Atlanti 2 14 158 134 177 166 127 177 470 0.10 166 Oglethorpe SCAC 3 10 169 163 140 168 167 139 474 0.10 167 Shenandoah CSAC 1 14 147 118 178 163 133 178 474 0.10 168 Dallas Independent 4 10 172 160 142 169 162 144 475 0.10 169 Green Mountain North Atlantic 2 8 176 178 124 177 178 121 476 0.10 170 Bethany Independent 1 11 173 155 132 178 171 129 478 0.10 171 Mass. Maritime Pilgrim 4 13 148 142 174 159 147 174 480 0.10 172 Mount Saint Mary Skyline 2 13 162 146 176 167 140 176 483 0.10 173 Thiel Independent 2 12 164 151 170 173 146 170 489 0.10 174 Johnson State North Atlantic 1 10 167 169 157 171 163 157 491 0.10 175 Emerson Great Northeas 2 12 166 170 169 170 159 169 498 0.10 176 Millsaps SCAC 0 12 177 149 173 174 156 172 502 0.10 177 Rivier Great Northeas 1 10 179 174 158 175 170 159 504 0.10 178 Penn State Abing NEAC 0 15 174 145 179 176 155 179 510 0.10 179 Wheelock Independent 0 10 178 175 163 179 179 163 521 0.10