2004 NCAA Men's Division III
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 Salisbury Capital 20 0 2 15 1 1 4 1 6 61.00 2 Washington Colle Centennial 18 3 9 3 2 2 2 2 6 2.00 3 Gettysburg Centennial 14 4 7 1 6 3 1 5 9 4.00 4 Middlebury NESCAC 16 2 4 10 4 5 3 3 11 3.00 5 Cortland SUNYAC 15 3 8 4 5 7 5 6 18 2.00 6 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 14 4 3 7 8 6 11 7 24 1.00 7 Ithaca Empire 8 13 3 6 12 7 10 12 8 30 3.00 8 Tufts NESCAC 13 3 11 30 9 9 15 9 33 0.10 9 Wesleyan NESCAC 14 4 18 33 11 11 13 10 34 0.10 10 Stevens Knickerbocker 13 3 17 37 13 8 14 17 39 0.10 11 Amherst NESCAC 11 5 16 6 19 15 6 19 40 0.10 12 Nazareth Empire 8 16 3 1 2 3 4 33 4 41 17.00 13 Springfield Pilgrim 13 4 20 57 16 18 16 13 47 1.00 14 RIT Empire 8 14 4 12 19 10 16 21 11 48 0.10 15 Hampden-Sydney Old Dominion 8 5 25 17 20 12 18 22 52 0.10 16 Lynchburg Old Dominion 9 5 22 8 24 14 17 26 57 0.10 17 Roanoke Old Dominion 10 5 14 14 29 17 19 21 57 2.00 18 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 8 6 40 13 34 21 8 33 62 0.10 19 Geneseo SUNYAC 11 5 23 29 18 20 26 20 66 0.10 20 Messiah Middle Atlanti 13 4 15 59 15 24 31 15 70 0.10 21 Mary Washington Capital 10 4 36 46 25 19 29 24 72 0.10 22 Eastern Connecti Little East 11 6 31 36 23 23 24 29 76 0.10 23 Bowdoin NESCAC 9 5 24 27 27 26 23 28 77 0.10 24 Cabrini Pennsylvania 14 3 29 71 12 28 37 12 77 0.10 25 Whittier Independent 8 4 5 21 17 13 46 18 77 4.00 26 Rensselaer Upstate 12 4 19 47 26 22 30 27 79 0.10 27 McDaniel Centennial 8 8 34 20 40 27 10 44 81 0.10 28 Franklin & Marsh Centennial 9 5 27 31 30 25 35 25 85 0.10 29 Hartwick Empire 8 8 8 35 16 36 33 9 46 88 0.10 30 St. Mary's Colle Capital 11 6 47 39 31 35 27 31 93 0.10 31 Clarkson Upstate 8 8 37 28 50 36 7 52 95 0.10 32 Dickinson Centennial 9 6 28 32 32 29 34 32 95 0.10 33 Western New Engl Pilgrim 14 7 49 75 41 31 28 39 98 0.10 34 Montclair State Knickerbocker 14 3 61 80 21 30 64 16 110 0.10 35 Widener Middle Atlanti 10 5 39 63 35 37 44 35 116 0.10 36 Endicott Commonwealth 12 7 54 82 43 41 42 40 123 0.10 37 St. Lawrence Upstate 11 3 21 43 22 34 68 23 125 0.10 38 Wheaton Pilgrim 10 5 52 86 42 32 55 41 128 0.10 39 Colby NESCAC 8 6 45 48 39 42 53 37 132 0.10 40 Utica College Empire 8 8 7 48 35 45 48 38 47 133 0.10 41 Virginia Wesleya Old Dominion 5 8 65 22 65 45 36 56 137 0.10 42 Colorado College Independent 9 6 30 9 38 40 63 38 141 0.10 43 Goucher Capital 8 8 41 54 62 43 41 58 142 0.10 44 Trinity NESCAC 5 9 50 24 79 50 22 70 142 0.10 45 Babson Pilgrim 9 8 63 76 76 38 32 73 143 0.10 46 Hamilton Upstate 9 5 32 45 44 39 62 45 146 0.10 47 MIT Pilgrim 6 6 76 87 55 46 59 50 155 0.10 48 Alfred Empire 8 6 7 55 23 49 55 54 48 157 0.10 49 Connecticut Coll NESCAC 5 11 53 11 91 47 20 91 158 0.10 50 Haverford Centennial 7 6 57 65 46 52 66 43 161 0.10 51 Oneonta SUNYAC 9 8 42 60 52 64 45 55 164 0.10 52 Swarthmore Centennial 6 9 56 34 85 51 40 78 169 0.10 53 Elizabethtown Middle Atlanti 9 6 62 72 48 57 65 51 173 0.10 54 Williams NESCAC 3 10 60 5 90 59 25 89 173 0.10 55 Wooster North Coast 9 5 13 62 33 44 96 34 174 0.10 56 Elmira Empire 8 4 8 66 18 61 60 43 72 175 0.10 57 Roger Williams Commonwealth 10 7 80 96 67 53 56 67 176 0.10 58 Denison North Coast 8 5 43 52 47 58 81 42 181 0.10 59 Fairleigh Dickin Middle Atlanti 10 7 44 70 54 56 61 64 181 0.10 60 Richard Stockton Knickerbocker 8 8 81 74 84 54 50 80 184 0.10 61 Catholic Capital 9 5 67 90 37 63 87 36 186 0.10 62 Keene State Little East 10 7 33 89 63 49 80 61 190 0.10 63 Lycoming Middle Atlanti 7 6 64 73 51 65 76 49 190 0.10 64 Ursinus Centennial 6 8 71 66 60 69 58 63 190 0.10 65 Greensboro Independent 7 7 10 50 58 61 72 60 193 0.10 66 Keuka Independent 10 1 38 113 14 67 120 14 201 0.10 67 Drew Middle Atlanti 8 6 75 81 53 70 79 53 202 0.10 68 Bates NESCAC 2 9 58 26 87 71 52 85 208 0.10 69 Mass-Dartmouth Little East 7 7 96 98 75 62 70 76 208 0.10 70 Skidmore Upstate 3 9 70 25 93 68 47 93 208 0.10 71 Wentworth Tech. Commonwealth 9 7 95 111 70 66 75 71 212 0.10 72 Muhlenberg Centennial 5 9 74 61 82 73 60 88 221 0.10 73 New England Coll Commonwealth 6 10 92 84 103 72 51 100 223 0.10 74 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 6 9 72 58 86 77 67 84 228 0.10 75 Nichols Commonwealth 7 6 101 118 59 76 94 59 229 0.10 76 Potsdam SUNYAC 4 10 68 41 104 79 48 104 231 0.10 77 Mount Ida Independent 9 3 91 127 28 83 119 30 232 0.10 78 Susquehanna Middle Atlanti 6 7 85 79 72 75 77 81 233 0.10 79 Union Upstate 4 11 82 38 114 78 39 116 233 0.10 80 Kean Knickerbocker 8 7 73 104 71 84 93 65 242 0.10 81 Lasell Pilgrim 5 7 106 110 80 74 86 82 242 0.10 82 Guilford Old Dominion 5 9 89 42 88 82 78 90 250 0.10 83 Manhattanville Knickerbocker 5 9 26 83 95 80 83 87 250 0.10 84 Centenary Independent 7 7 86 93 73 88 95 74 257 0.10 85 Farmingdale Independent 8 7 69 94 57 86 118 57 261 0.10 86 Mass-Boston Little East 6 7 108 115 78 87 99 79 265 0.10 87 St. John Fisher Empire 8 2 12 90 40 117 97 49 119 265 0.10 88 Plymouth State Little East 6 7 79 106 66 85 116 66 267 0.10 89 Brockport SUNYAC 4 8 78 64 77 91 92 86 269 0.10 90 Norwich Pilgrim 6 7 94 101 64 90 117 62 269 0.10 91 Marymount Capital 2 12 104 49 124 98 57 122 277 0.10 92 Mass. Maritime Pilgrim 4 10 112 109 116 92 71 115 278 0.10 93 New York Maritim Knickerbocker 5 7 77 88 83 89 113 77 279 0.10 94 Oswego SUNYAC 5 10 46 51 89 81 105 95 281 0.10 95 Villa Julie Pennsylvania 6 10 100 92 115 93 74 114 281 0.10 96 Gordon Commonwealth 4 9 105 97 98 99 85 102 286 0.10 97 Wesley Pennsylvania 5 9 88 95 109 95 82 109 286 0.10 98 York Capital 3 9 97 77 100 105 84 97 286 0.10 99 Merchant Marine Knickerbocker 4 10 93 67 110 94 88 106 288 0.10 100 Maine Maritime Pilgrim 2 6 121 120 74 109 106 75 290 0.10 101 Southern Maine Little East 5 8 111 103 96 101 98 96 295 0.10 102 Emerson Independent 3 6 123 128 56 119 123 54 296 0.10 103 Kenyon North Coast 5 10 51 44 106 96 90 110 296 0.10 104 Curry Commonwealth 5 8 109 121 94 104 101 94 299 0.10 105 Misericordia Pennsylvania 6 9 107 105 102 107 89 103 299 0.10 106 Scranton Middle Atlanti 3 12 102 68 121 106 69 124 299 0.10 107 Oberlin North Coast 6 8 99 91 92 103 109 92 304 0.10 108 Vassar Upstate 3 9 84 69 112 100 91 113 304 0.10 109 DeSales Middle Atlanti 3 12 103 78 125 108 73 125 306 0.10 110 Medaille Independent 4 6 110 123 69 118 125 69 312 0.10 111 Clark Pilgrim 5 9 116 116 101 110 102 101 313 0.10 112 SUNYIT SUNYAC 0 5 128 100 68 127 122 68 317 0.10 113 Western Connecti Little East 3 8 118 114 99 113 107 99 319 0.10 114 Washington & Jef Independent 0 10 120 53 108 115 97 108 320 0.10 115 Plattsburgh SUNYAC 2 10 83 55 107 111 108 107 326 0.10 116 Mt. St. Vincent Independent 0 8 127 108 81 125 126 83 334 0.10 117 Neumann Pennsylvania 2 11 114 107 123 114 100 123 337 0.10 118 Wittenberg North Coast 4 12 59 56 120 102 115 120 337 0.10 119 U. of New Englan Commonwealth 2 10 117 124 118 117 104 117 338 0.10 120 Shenandoah Pennsylvania 3 9 113 112 111 116 112 111 339 0.10 121 King's Middle Atlanti 2 13 87 85 126 112 103 126 341 0.10 122 Castleton State Independent 3 10 115 125 97 123 124 98 345 0.10 123 Salve Regina Commonwealth 0 10 122 119 119 121 110 118 349 0.10 124 Moravian Middle Atlanti 3 13 98 99 127 120 111 127 358 0.10 125 Johnson State Independent 0 10 125 126 105 128 128 105 361 0.10 126 Daniel Webster Independent 2 14 124 122 122 122 121 121 364 0.10 127 Cazenovia Independent 2 9 119 117 113 126 127 112 365 0.10 128 Alvernia Pennsylvania 0 12 126 102 128 124 114 128 366 0.10